u/Optimal-Meringue-5

Here is my analysis:

Currently Anthropic and OpenAI are seeing huge sustaining revenue uplift from their frontier models most notably fable/opus/sol class of models

Revenue from these frontier models is projected to sustain around $100 billion arr for both by end of year. Google’s frontier models will earn them roughly zero in comparison unless we get Gemini 4 before then.

As Google will start from a position of weakness early next year they will get the leftovers enterprises and would be lucky to hit $100 billion in frontier revenue by eoy 2027. Meanwhile both OpenAI and Anthropic will likely 4-5x to 400-500 billions in frontier revenue.

This is essentially $300 billion roughly Google’s entire revenue base forgone just because they missed the agentic revolution by a year.

Hopefully I’m wrong but it’s pretty sad for the stock

Sundar is an amazing peacetime ceo but it’s increasingly clear that now is not peacetime. If you look at all the other ai labs amodei Altman are all extreme believers of asi with almost a religious fervor. That is not Sundar’s personality and most likely explains the lack of aggression needed to compete at the frontier.

Deepmind has more imo medalist than any other frontier org. They have way more money way more compute. They literally threw more money at the problem than all other labs and are now still lagging Chinese labs with 1% the budget. It’s clear that there is a leadership issue and changes need to be made at a fundamental level.