r/GOOG_Stock

My plan is to sell at 40-60% profit, so I don't need exit or roll advice. I want to hear what people think about the strike and the company.
Why it's down, as I see it: the market doesn't believe Google has a real answer to Meta's Muse. Spark is still behind a paywall while Muse is free, and Gemini 4 just launched to a shrug because the focus has moved from models to agents. My bet is Google closes that gap well before 2028.

Questions:
1. Am I too far OTM at $450? The strike is about 10% above the 52-week high.
2. What is Sundar's actual plan to answer Muse? Does Spark go free, and when does it get purchases and phone calls like Muse has?
3. Why is Google running Spark and CC as separate agents instead of one product? Is that a focus problem at the top?
4. If agents start doing tasks without people searching, what happens to Search ad revenue? Is that the real fear behind the selloff?
5. Is the Muse fear already priced in with Cloud growing the way it is, or is there more downside into Q3 earnings?

Honest takes welcome.

Every AI release comes with another chart showing how it beats the competition. A little better here, slightly worse there. How much of that actually changes the user experience?

That said, I think Google is moving in the right direction. Based on its published results, the new model looks particularly strong at research and complex business tasks. The launch seems aimed heavily at enterprise customers willing to pay for that work.

Coding looks more mixed, and getting developers to switch from Claude or Codex could be a challenge. A better benchmark score alone probably won’t do it.

For a while, I thought Anthropic and OpenAI could become the Visa and Mastercard of AI. Now I’m less convinced this ends up being a two-company race.

My bet is that Google comes out ahead commercially. It may never have the best model in every category, but I think it’s positioned to turn AI into revenue and improve its existing business better than almost anyone. Meta is my other favorite on that front.

Google already has the chips, infrastructure, research teams, and products to put AI in front of enormous numbers of users. It also has an established business to fund that investment.

That doesn’t guarantee it wins. Distribution only helps if the products are useful, and being an established company doesn’t mean you’ll execute well.

I think Anthropic and OpenAI can build profitable businesses too. But Google doesn’t need everyone to switch to Gemini for its AI investment to pay off. Better Search, better advertising, and more valuable business software could be enough.

Are we putting too much weight on who wins the benchmarks and too little on who can turn the technology into profits?