u/mojolakota

If I say so, it must close green, right ?

The bleeding never stops

Feels like the current narrative is pretty simple

AI capex bad. RAM/HBM/power/data centers too expensive. No clean ROI on AI capex. Hyperscalers are just burning cash. Why bet on them when you can bet pick & shovel companies with high margins. I get the bear case. It’s not dumb.

If memory prices keep ripping, every AI build gets more expensive. Cloud margins can get hit. Devices can get more expensive. Eventually normal people get pissed because their Xbox & iPads now cost more.

But I’m wondering if this is becoming groupthink now and what can shift the narrative on hyperscalers.

Earnings are just round the corner. We will get numbers on q2 and forward guidance. If the capex guidance stays steady from increasing, that minor change alone could reverse the trade where we see hyperscalers go up and memory, chip & storage stocks go down. Seeing clear ROI in financials will also help.

One another blind spot for memory bulls: if RAM/HBM prices get too stupid, DOJ/FTC could start sniffing around. Not because high prices are illegal, but because DRAM has had price-fixing history before. If Apple/Microsoft/Dell/etc. start blaming memory costs for popular consumer devices inflation and consumers get mad, politicians may ask questions.

Betting on hyperscalers is the clear contrarian trade right now. Obviously being contrarian doesn’t always mean more upside. Anyone buying MSFT/GOOG/AMZN/META/ORCL here? What will change the narrative on hyperscalers?

This guy talked like ChatGPT before ChatGPT. Not surprised the stock is crashing

Looking at the price trend, indexes have been the most stable in this AI bull market. However investing in individual companies can make you lose your pants because AI is so disruptive. MSFT was like $470 three weeks ago and have now crashed (again) 20% in just three weeks. You could have also made lot of money if you invested in chips, memory and cpu companies .

My point is individual companies are going to continue to see wild swings. This is not a normal bull market. Many companies will get purged and there will be many new winners. But volatility will remain constant.

So why not just stick with indexes? They have been steadily going up and are at their all time highs. Qqq and IWM are up 20% YTD. VTI and VOO around 10% . They are solid returns.

Unless you are looking for 100% or more returns , it doesn’t make sense to pick winners and losers in this market imo

It feels like the market is repeating the exact same mistake with Google that it made last year.

Remember the massive narrative that AI chatbots were going to kill Google Search? The theory was that no one would google things anymore. We now know how that turned out. AI Overviews actually made people search more.

When I searched for how to make a favicon for website , it gave me a synthesized paragraph for all different services which is much better than just different blue links on a page. I am sure it mixed organic results with ads. Google has been so much better to find products & services with ai overviews in my opinion.

Now that the death of search narrative is dead, Wall Street has completely shifted the goalposts. The new bear case is all about margins. The narrative is now: sure, revenue is growing, but the massive token compute costs and their CapEx bill will permanently destroy their profit margins.

But is this just another massive miscalculation again?

If you look at their latest earnings, Alphabet's operating margins actually expanded to 36%. They are successfully relocating their ad revenue right into the AI paragraphs, and their Cloud division is growing at 63% with a $460 billion backlog to help offset the infrastructure costs. 

Is the market underpricing their actual growth again by obsessing over the CapEx bill? Curious how everyone else is viewing the stock right now. We will find out soon in 6 weeks . I am expecting another blow out quarter

Indexes are the clear winner. Among Mag7, msft , meta and tsla seem to have corrected a lot more compared to aapl, NVDA and Googl .

The Stocks:

Microsoft (MSFT): Down -27.7% (ATH: $555 ➔ Now:$401)
Meta (META): Down -26.3% (ATH: $796 ➔ Now: $586)
Tesla (TSLA): Down -21.4% (ATH: $498 ➔ Now: $391)
Nvidia (NVDA): Down -13.9% (ATH: $236 ➔ Now: $203)
Amazon (AMZN): Down -12.7% (ATH: $278 ➔ Now: $243)
Alphabet (GOOGL): Down -11.2% (ATH: $408 ➔ Now: $363)
Apple (AAPL): Down -8.5% (ATH: $317 ➔ Now: $290)

The Broader Market (For Context):

Nasdaq 100 (QQQ): Down -6.7%
S&P 500 (SPY): Down -3.9%
Total Market (VTI): Down -3.8%
Russell 2000 (IWM): Down -3.7%

I had a pretty bad injury earlier this year and I was depressed so i developed a completely free web app to help people and solve a common frustration. The app is free, doesn’t run ads and I don’t even require any sign up or sign in. I shared it across a few local online communities where I know people would use it.

Mathematically, the launch was a huge success. thousands of views, lots of quiet upvotes, and great feedback from people who genuinely needed it

However, I was entirely caught off guard by the intense, cynical backlash from a very vocal minority who went out of their way to try and "expose" me. They accused me of faking an injury just to garner sympathy, called me deceptive simply because I shared the same helpful tool in other relevant communities, and took direct shots at my technical skills, claiming the project was entirely built by AI and I couldn't possibly have the ability to make it myself. This one guy even stalked my profile and dropped a comment on all my posts, looking through my entire history to find something negative to use against me. Because I was trying to practice "No JADE" (Do not Justify, Argue, Defend, or Explain) and refused to take their bait, I felt like other readers assumed my silence meant guilt. It led to an awful snowball effect where the hivemind started downvoting my polite, unrelated replies to other people while upvoting the haters' toxic projections.

Logically, I know starving trolls of oxygen is the right move, and I heavily utilized the block button. But emotionally, it was incredibly hard. I found my brain completely hyper-focusing on those miserable comments instead of the thousands of people who were actively being helped.

What actually drives this specific type of highly motivated, cynical online behavior? How do you handle the perception of "guilt by silence"? What are the best psychological strategies for emotional detachment besides blocking and hiding posts

I recently got berberine . Will it help

Everywhere I look online, all the gurus like Tom Lee on Bloomberg and CNBC seem to think the SpaceX IPO will be a headwind for equities in the short term. The logic is that money managers will have to sell off some of their current positions to raise the cash to buy SpaceX. However, why aren't they considering the flip side? Current SpaceX investors will finally get the opportunity to diversify and dump the top on retail. All that unlocked cash can then be rotated right back into buying other stocks. What do you guys think?

Think about the sheer amount of paper wealth that has been trapped in SpaceX for over two decades. If the rumored $1.75 trillion valuation holds, early VC funds, institutional backers, and long term employees are sitting on astronomical but completely illiquid gains. The financial media is treating this mega-IPO like a one way street where capital just vanishes into a black hole to buy the stock. What they are completely ignoring is the massive wealth transfer happening on the other side of that trade.

Instead of a liquidity drain, this could actually trigger a massive market rotation, injecting fresh, diversified capital into sectors that have been largely ignored?

Will Alphabet's Q2 earnings be crazy again? They are raising 80 billion to meet unprecedented customer demand for AI infrastructure, and Berkshire Hathaway just invested 10 billion at around 350 per share.

I am seeing a lot of chatter about why raising capital through new stock issuance is a bad move. However, if they had raised it through debt instead, the market likely would have hated that too. Sentiment has definitely shifted, and the stock is now officially in correction territory.

The wall of worry is back, and we might be stuck in this pattern until the next earnings report. Because of this, it is unclear whether this is a solid opportunity to buy the dip or if the stock will just keep dipping.

What are your thoughts on the sentiment right now? How do you think this unprecedented demand will actually show up in Q2 earnings? If they massively beat Wall Street estimates, could this be a great opportunity to load up on more shares?