u/OtherwiseAddled

I've seen some Clippers fans still assume the Clippers are going to "get away" with cap circumvention.

Wachtell has spent 11 months talking to people Pablo doesn't have access to. Including Joe Sanberg himself. They investigated deals that Pablo hasn't reported on. They have no podcast to promote. They have no incentive to discard details that don't fit their narrative.

People will say "Pablo won a Pulitzer!" but that's just an appeal to outside authority. I can do that too: Wachtell is one of the most prestigious law firms in the world. They have been around longer than Pablo has been alive.

If Wachtell had found evidence, would people question the investigation? Or is it only because they didn't come to the result that matched their under-informed opinion? (We're all under-informed compared to the people that did the investigation.)

I can't bring myself to listen to Pablo, I'll wait for u/drewmanshow to give the summary. I have to hand it to Pablo this is a bigger find than the RIFC thing. If it's true it would be insane because Daktronics has been around since 1968 and has been publicly traded since 1994. The President of the Milwaukee Bucks is on their board of directors (since last year). They aren't just the Halo Board creators, they did boards and displays for the arenas for:

OKC Thunder

New York Knicks

Houston Rockets

Boston Celtics

Detroit Pistons

Memphis Grizzlies

Brooklyn Nets

Dallas Mavericks

Minnesota Timberwolves

Atlanta Hawks

Chicago Bulls

Denver Nuggets

If Ballmer somehow got the company that also does displays for almost half the league to do a shady deal for Kawhi, then he might be the greatest under the table deal maker ever. Or I wonder if some of these other teams have hidden sponsorship deals for their players?

I'm excited for the art! It might be the closest thing to Moebius doing the LSH.

During my draft obsession, I heard the spreadsheet nerds mention "feel" stats. Stats that we hope are proxies for feel for the game. The most basic version is offensive rebounding, assist percentage and steals. I've used those and added assist to turnover ratio, and block percentage. Then I just averaged out the percentiles to give each player a score based on their last year of college. The percentiles are the numbers in parentheses.

What I did was the dumbest version possible, it doesn't have different weights for each stat for different positions, but since the numbers come from draftballr.com, the percentiles are adjusted for position. It also doesn't account for competition or combine scores. An important weight to consider is age, but I don't know how to weigh that. And yet, it still lines up with what happened fairly well.

The only player with a bad score to beat the allegations so far is Moussa but we all hope Yanic can too.

There are some players with high scores that didn't amount to anything and I'm frankly surprised to see Kobe Brown so high since his feel seems awful. So as the title says this predicts busts more than it predicts success.

It's honestly insane to me that the player with the highest score (SGA) and the only with BY FAR the lowest (you know who) were picked one spot apart.

Rank	Player	Pos	Age	AST%	STL%	BLK%	A:TO	OREB_R	BBall Feel+
1	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	G	19.9	28.8 (69)	2.8 (64)	1.7 (84)	1.9 (57)	3.2 (71)	69.0
2	Kobe Brown	W-F	23.5	16.7 (82)	2.8 (87)	1.9 (33)	1.5 (84)	7.3 (55)	68.2
3	Jason Preston	G	21.9	37.6 (93)	2.1 (30)	0.9 (57)	2.4 (80)	3.8 (80)	68.0
4	Jordan Miller	G-W	23.4	14.1 (54)	2.0 (42)	1.3 (50)	2.0 (93)	7.2 (89)	65.6
5	Kobe Sanders	G	23.1	29.9 (73)	2.2 (36)	1.2 (71)	2.4 (80)	2.7 (60)	64.0
6	Keon Johnson	G-W	19.3	21.2 (88)	2.6 (71)	1.9 (70)	0.9 (17)	4.8 (64)	62.0
7	Keaton Wagler	G	19.4	23.2 (42)	1.7 (13)	1.3 (75)	2.4 (80)	6.7 (98)	61.6
8	Baba Miller	F-C	22.4	23.3 (98)	1.3 (20)	4.2 (40)	1.7 (97)	8.3 (23)	55.6
9	Terance Mann	W-F	22.7	15.6 (77)	1.2 (14)	1.2 (14)	1.4 (77)	9.1 (80)	52.4
10	Nick Martinelli	W-F	22.2	13.2 (65)	1.4 (25)	1.2 (14)	1.4 (77)	7.8 (62)	48.6
11	Yanic Konan Niederhauser	C	22.3	6.1 (32)	1.5 (53)	10.2 (81)	0.5 (29)	10.1 (20)	43.0
12	Brandon Boston Jr.	G-W	19.6	11.3 (32)	2.5 (69)	0.5 (10)	1.1 (34)	4.7 (62)	41.4
13	Mfiondu Kabengele	F-C	21.9	3.2 (2)	1.5 (39)	8.3 (89)	0.2 (1)	11.5 (71)	40.4
14	Daniel Oturu	F-C	20.8	7.6 (26)	1.0 (8)	7.1 (79)	0.4 (7)	12.0 (79)	39.8
15	Cam Christie	G-W	18.9	13.8 (52)	1.2 (6)	1.1 (41)	1.9 (91)	1.0 (1)	38.2
16	Moussa Diabate	C	20.4	6.2 (33)	0.8 (10)	3.7 (10)	0.6 (41)	11.9 (50)	28.8
17	Jerome Robinson	G	21.3	19.5 (29)	1.4 (5)	0.4 (24)	1.2 (15)	1.6 (21)	18.8

I'm curious what you all think, but reading this has me amped up for Mikel again. It feels like stealing if I add in the Flemings and Wagler stuff. Slept on it, and the Athletic can go to heck for propping up Pablo, I'll put the other notes in replies.

Mikel Brown Jr.

>College head coach No. 3 (his team played Louisville): We tried to deny him the ball back. He can go right-left. Stronger going left. Tried to deny it and make it tough. Hand in the face. … He’s been playing a lot of basketball for a long time. In AAU, he was a younger kid playing 17-U. His dad believed in having him play up. He should have been playing 15 or 16, but he was playing as a freshman, a ninth-grader, he was playing 17-U. He can score. Things he has to work on are his defense. On offense, we tried to attack him. He does the right things to help teams win and make players better.

>College head coach No. 1 (his team played Louisville): He’s big-time. He was always really, really good and knew how to play the position. But between his junior and senior year (of high school), he grew. That’s the big thing. And all of a sudden, athleticism popped in. That took his whole thing to another level. Last year, (at the U.S. men’s World Cup Under-19), the two best guys were A.J. (Dybantsa) and him. He was magical, as a facilitator. He can score it, he can shoot it, he can get to the rim and finish on top of you. … Louisville runs more pattern stuff, more pattern sets. They did allow him to (iso) some. And when he played, if they were in tight games, down the stretch, they put him in spread ball screen and let him go. I’ve seen him hold up (defensively) OK. This year, it was hit or miss. When he wants to, because he’s long and athletic, and he can really move and slide his feet, so when he wants to, yeah, he can. And I think he’ll want to in that league.

>Western Conference scout No. 1: If his back wasn’t hurt, he’s probably in the top three or four. ‘Cause that boy can shoot. Athletic. Then his dad was there, putting him through the work. After practice, his dad would have him on the track, doing steps.

>Eastern Conference executive No. 1: For me, it’s trying to find a way to play team basketball. His game can be a little wild. When you’re an elite guard and your game’s wild, it can be hard for other guys to adjust to that. Is that more a situation at Louisville, and they just told him to rock out? I don’t know. Watching some of the high school stuff and U-19 last summer, he can pass with both hands. He does have a feel. He just needs to calm his game down a little bit. He can take shots from the logo. You bet on that being coachable, and fixing that, you’ve got a potential offensive nightmare.

Darius AcuffJr.

>Eastern Conference executive No. 1: Everyone knew coming in that Acuff could score. Elite, elite scorer from multiple levels. He did not play to his age as a scorer. Where he evolved this year and put himself in a tier with the top prospects was his playmaking. He made huge, huge strides. Throwing lobs, running pick-and-rolls, trying to find a balance between scoring and playmaking. For a guy who came in as a thirsty guard to now be a legit point guard who can also be an explosive scorer, that is something you look for with a player of his size. The defensive side of the floor is a concern. I worry that he’s going to be a player that teams target. But what gives me hope is that he is built like a tank. … You put the right guys around him, he’s going to be a Tyrese Maxey-level player.

>College assistant coach No. 2 (his team played Arkansas): Acuff, to me, to be successful, you have to view him, stylistically, and how he’s going to score, like Kyrie Irving. They both play on the ground. They’re both below-the-rim guys. Kyrie’s more gifted than Acuff. But they’re both that 6-2, strong body, quick-handed with the dribble, score with angles. Awkward angles. Bigs go up to get their shot, they use the inside hand. They just have a knack. Plus, Acuff can really see the floor. Not that he’s Kyrie. But don’t expect a guy that’s going to play like (Russell) Westbrook. He’s not explosive at the rim. He’s a bucket getter, via angles, can shoot high off the glass. Go under you, go to the other side and use the rim as protection. And a much better shooter and passer than he gets credit for. Now, defensively? Pretty horses—. But if a guy is competitive in the context of the game, and Acuff is highly competitive offensively, you sit him down and say, “Now you have to guard.”

>Western conference executive No. 1: Acuff has this horrendous defensive profile that’s pretty pronounced. I always feel when you have a real weakness, whether it’s physical, size, defense, it’s like a seesaw. If one side is down, the other side has to be way up. The offense is way up. He’s coming off of one of the great years that the SEC has ever seen. This guy’s averaging 23 a game, shooting over 40 (on 3s). Nobody stopped him in the SEC, which is the most talented league. And (Arkansas coach John Calipari) … turned the team over to him. The game at Alabama, he played 49 of 50 minutes, and three days before, he was in a boot. Cal came up to him and said, “There’s more to this season than playing at Alabama, we’ve got to preserve you, you don’t have to play.” And the kid got upset and said there’s no way I’m not playing. Comes out of the boot, plays 49, and is just stroking everything.

A few days ago on a No Ceilings mock draft there was an older dude that hinted at behind the scenes drama with Mikel at Louisville but didn't go into.

CBS guys went into it. This CBS mock draft is still streaming live, but if you want the tea they discuss Mikel at pick #8 to the Hawks though almost none of them believe he'll be the last of the 4 selected.

Anyway Matt Norlander strongly hints that Mikel's dad shut him down and that the situation was as uncomfortable as Darryn Peterson at Kansas. Gary Parrish adds that from what he heard the attitude was that Mikel and his camp didn't care about college basketball and they were waiting to go to the NBA while collecting some NIL money.

Adam Finkelstein pushes back with what sounds like the narrative from Mikel's camp. They were not being used how they were promised and they didn't have the supporting cast they were promised.

I still want MBJ to be the pick, but this all sounds like a headache. I hope it doesn't go so far that Mikel Sr. creates a slopshop shoe brand that ruins his son's feet.

Luckily the Clippers know how to deal with meddling family members.

This was a fun, nerdy (in a good way) article on basketball player evaluation philosophy that incorporates probability and economics ideas. I like his idea that it's important to look for unique skill combinations or outlier skill in small set of skills instead of looking for archetypes. We never found the next Steph, but we got Luka, SGA and Jokic. Each is different from the others, but they all didn't neatly fit previous models of excellence.

Since I can't also post the picture of his provocative big board, it goes a little something like this for the guards

Tier 3

Kingston Flemings (Overall rank #6)

Ebuka Okorie (#7)

Keaton Wagler (#8)

Tier 4

Benett Stirtz (#12)

Mikel Brown Jr. (#13)

Darius Acuff Jr. (#17)

I think his philosophy disregards the need to find the right complementary players around these unique players a bit too much. It's not easy! As good as Steph would be on any team, it required the right system around him to maximize him. LeBron and Luka have team formations that work best for them.

Okorie is really interesting. The Double Bonus podcast guys called him an SG in a PG body. So to get the best of him he'd need to be next to an oversized PG. If he ends up in Detroit, Charlotte or Toronto that might be interesting to see.

I really enjoyed this discussion on each of the top guard prospects. The hosts tended to focus on the negatives more than positives and I appreciated it because there’s so much hype right now and it’s good to be reminded that these are all very flawed players and the likelihood that all of them become the best version of themselves is low.

Luc (@AtTheLevel) said something that really struck me: “the worst players in the NBA are young guards.” He and the other hosts talked about how young guards are expected to contribute right away which makes me think that the Clippers have one of the best situations for a young guard to develop. The rookie can play in a winning culture behind Darius Garland and start when he misses games. I feel even more strongly that swinging for the highest upside guy is the right move because of the Clippers infrastructure. And this podcast has reinforced how much I feel that player is Mikel Brown Jr. as long as the medicals are good and the Clippers want to get a guard.

From the podcast I was inspired to make a few tables. If there's a number in parenthesis, that's the percentile.

Modern Scoring...Score (not the best name!) This is the average of the player’s percentile ranks from draftballr.com for True Shooting %, Free Throw Rate and Three Point Attempt Rate. I threw in Jalen Brunson’s final college season in for reference:

Player	TS%	FTR	3PR	Modern Scorer Score
Mikel Brown Jr.	57.7 (69)	44.7 (76)	0.59 (92)	79.0
Keaton Wagler	59.6 (81)	47.6 (83)	0.48 (72)	78.7
Labaron Philon	62.6 (95)	40.8 (66)	0.42 (59)	73.3
Brayden Burries	61.6 (85)	39.5 (71)	0.42 (48)	68.0
Bennett Stirtz	60.7 (88)	31.4 (38)	0.49 (73)	66.3
Ebuka Okorie	58.9 (77)	44.9 (77)	0.35 (41)	65.0
Jalen Brunson	63.5 (97)	31.3 (37)	0.41 (56)	63.3
Darryn Peterson	57.8 (65)	37.1 (61)	0.46 (60)	62.0
Darius Acuff Jr.	60.4 (87)	37.0 (55)	0.35 (38)	60.0
Kingston Flemings	56.3 (52)	27.7 (26)	0.23 (8)	28.7

Lead Playmaker sorted by ‘Assist to Usage’ to indicate assist efficiency:

Player	AST%	A:TO	TOV%	USG	AST / USG
Kingston Flemings	32.6 (83)	2.9 (92)	13.1 (84)	26.5 (67)	1.2 (77)
Darius Acuff Jr.	32.2 (81)	3.0 (93)	11.6 (92)	29.5 (86)	1.1 (63)
Labaron Philon	31.9 (80)	2.0 (62)	14.8 (69)	29.9 (89)	1.1 (61)
Mikel Brown Jr.	30.3 (75)	1.5 (33)	19.3 (27)	31.0 (93)	1.0 (48)
Bennett Stirtz	24.9 (52)	2.4 (80)	11.9 (91)	26.1 (61)	0.9 (45)
Keaton Wagler	23.2 (42)	2.4 (80)	12.5 (88)	25.7 (57)	0.9 (39)
Ebuka Okorie	23.9 (45)	1.9 (57)	10.4 (97)	30.1 (90)	0.8 (29)

For reference here are some NBA lead guards and their final college AST / USG ratio plus their career NBA AST / USG:

Player	Final College AST % / USG %	NBA Career AST % / USG %
Haliburton	1.6	1.8
Luka	N/A	1.2
Brunson	1.0	1.1
Dame	0.9	1.1
Steph	1.1	1.1
SGA	1.3	0.9

I also took notes on what they said about each player that I’ll put in a reply because this is long as heck already!

From the article:

>If the Bulls were to trade up into the top 10, multiple personnel have stated that they believe such a move would be made for Illinois guard Keaton Wagler.

>Wagler was recently involved in a big pre-draft workout the Bulls recently hosted, which also included Kingston Flemings, Nate Ament, and Morez Johnson Jr. Other top prospects who have visited Chicago include Mikel Brown Jr. and Darius Acuff Jr.

Personally, I think this is probably just smoke, but I do find it very interesting that they met with Wagler, Flemings, Brown Jr., and Acuff Jr. and that Wagler is the one they (supposedly) want.

I feel sad for his personal ambitions, but selfishly I'm glad it hopefully means he'll still be with the Clippers next year.

Overall caveat, I think the NBA combine tests are overrated. But! we have time to kill before the draft and I think in some places the "Wagler is unathletic" discourse has gone a bit too far.

I had ChatGPT add a ranking to the NBA's combine stats, so I don't have to count rows to see where a player is. You can see it here: https://owaddled.github.io/nba-combine-2026/

For some tests, I was pleasantly surprised where Wagler landed. All the rank numbers I reference will be the overall number. You can filter by position on the github page.

Lane Agility: Tied for 35. This is ahead of all of the top 4 consensus picks.

Shuttle Run: 50th. Not great but it's above Caleb Wilson and 0.01 below Dybantsa and Boozer.

3/4 Sprint: 53rd. By far his weakest one, 2nd slowest guard. He was 0.03 behind Mikel Brown.

Standing Vert: 15th. Higher than Acuff and Darryn Peterson. Half an inch below Dybantsa. That said I don't know that standing vert translates to much on the court.

Max Vert: 39th, bottom half. He's half an inch below Acuff and Dailyn Swain.

So what to make of this? I'm still not sure honestly. He's obviously not a freak, though he did better than some of the freaks in Lane Agility and was close in Shuttle Run. The 3/4 Sprint is disappointing for a lead guard.

There's been so much hand wringing about his lack of college dunks, but his max vert was better than dudes that did dunk. Maybe it's a hand size issue? Maybe he rigged his reach to get better numbers on the max vert like Reed Sheppard did?

Maybe I'm not paying attention because he's not in play for the Clippers, but I feel like I don't hear much concern about Darryn Peterson's athleticism, but Wagler is fairly close to him. Though does that mean Wagler is impressive or Peterson is disappointing?

If you don't have time to watch full games, but you also want to dig deeper than highlight videos, the Cashiggy channel is a good resource. They show all the shot attempts and fouls drawn. They have clips of passes that don't lead to baskets and defense clips as well.

Of course, we're at the mercy of what games and possessions Cashiggy took the time to clip, but I think this can give a better picture of what it's like to watch these players than just highlight or low light videos. So far the channel doesn't have any NCAA tourney videos.

I grouped them by player and then in chronological order.

Currently the playlist has

Mikel Brown Jr. - 4 games

Kingston Flemings - 11 games

Keaton Wagler - 12 games

Darius Acuff Jr. - 14 games

Aday Mara - 1 game

Bennet Stirtz - 1 game

Is that the likelihood that it comes back to haunt the Clippers is low. Even if Acuff becomes his best self, it's the Kings! They aren't going to build a good team around him. Plus there's also the chance that he doesn't become his best self because he's thrust into a lead role right away and never has an incentive to improve on defense.

Then the Clippers can get Brown who I think has a higher ceiling than Acuff, but if his back is bad or he just doesn't work out, at least you got some assets.

(Sorry Kings fans, I do hope Vivek sells some day or learns to let basketball people do basketball things, but sometime after you give the Clippers some assets for Acuff. And I don't root for any young player to not reach their potential...except for Luka and that's only because he's now on the Lakers and Lakers hate trumps morals.)

I've been paying attention to Ben because he predicted that Ajay Mitchell would be great on Boston or OKC. He actually has Flemings and Mikel Brown Jr. in a separate tier than Wagler and Acuff.

I thought people might be interested to see other prospects that Ben likes since it feels like the sub has settled in on Acuff v. Wagler but it'd be more fun if other names are in the mix too.