u/OttSound

Sanyaku Watch!

• Aonishiki: Demoted from ozeki to sekiwake
• Takayasu: Demoted from komusubi to maegashira
• Kotoshoho: Locked in at sekiwake
• Atamifuji: +1 win to remain at sekiwake
• Wakatakakage: +1 win to force additional sekiwake slot
• Yoshinofuji: +1 win to guarantee komusubi.

Every active sanyaku wrestler won last night. The quadruple sekiwake dream is in reach. Fujinokawa, Oho and Gonoyama all still have paths to komusubi.

Demotion to juryo from makuuchi

• Demotion: Tamawashi, Oshoumi, Ryuden!
• +1 loss: Tokihayate, Shishi (maybe)
• +2 losses: Nishikifuji, Shishi (definitely), Wakanosho (longshot)

Last night: Ryuden got pulled down by Asasuiryu, physicially and mathematically. He could still get an exchange match on Day 15 to save himself, if he wins tonight. Wakanosho almost certainly secured his position in the top division with his win.

Big Day 14 matches: ***Daiseizan vs. Tokihayate*** (exchange match!), Abi vs. Shishi, Tamawashi vs. Nishikifuji

Promotion from juryo to makuuchi

• Promotion: Takerufuji, Onokatsu
• +1 win: Kazuma, Daiseizan, Asasuiryu
• +2 wins: Kyokukaiyu

Last night: Takerufuji and Onokatsu are set to return to the top division after their wins. Kazuma moved closer to promotion and the yusho, crushing Kazekeno's promotion chances in the process. Daiseizan... wtf, man.

Big Day 14 matches: ***Daiseizan vs. Tokihayate***, ***Kazuma vs. Asasuiryu***, Kyokukaiyu vs. Kitanowaka

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Demotion from juryo to makushita

• Demotion: Okaryu, Hakuyozan
• +1 loss:
• +2 losses: Tochitaikai, Nishikigi, Tohakuryu (maybe), Kayo (maybe)

Last night: Enho secured his place in juryo with perhaps the best recovery-into-throw of the tournament. What an amazing finish! Tohakaryu had a chance for safety but grabbed some hair instead. Kayo moved one step closer to safety. Hakuyozan lost an exchange match and should be be headed down, but he's getting another exchange match today. If he wins tonight and on Day 15, he might somehow be spared (having already beaten Arashifuji).

Big Day 14 matches: Fujitensei vs. Hakuyozan, Nishikigi vs. Dewanoryu.

Promotion from makushita to juryo

• Promotion (maybe): Daikosho
• Promotion (unlikely): Tanji
• +1 win: Fujitensei, Arashifuji
• +1 win, with overpromotion: Kotokuzan

Last night: Daikosho's win puts him in position to maybe move up if the numbers at the bottom of juryo get worse than they currently are. The numbers show: For the longest time, a 5-2 record from Ms5 was very rarely promoted (only twice in 19 times between 2011 and early 2023). Then the old men changed or something... Since May of 2023, 5 out of 6 have been promoted; based on his win over Hakuyzona last night, I'm putting Daikosho as a maybe (becomes more likely if Fujitensei and Arashifuji fail). Also, Tanji fought his way into the 7-way yusho playoff in makushita, but from his position, promotion is unlikely (2 of the last 16). Kayo and Nishikigi's wins mean that they cannot exceed their loss threshold, so I've removed most of those who were listed as potential overpromotes.

Big Day 14 matches: Fujitensei vs. Hakuyozan

Arashifuji and Kotokuzan could get Day 15 exchange matches if any of the +2 loss crew in juryo fall tonight. They've both already faced Hakuyozan.

Sanyaku Watch!

• Aonishiki: Demoted from ozeki to sekiwake
• Takayasu: Demoted from komusubi to maegashira
• Kotoshoho: +1 win to remain at sekiwake
• Atamifuji: +2 wins to remain at sekiwake
• Wakatakakage: +2 wins to force additional sekiwake slot

Demotion to juryo from makuuchi

• Demotion: Tamawashi, Oshoumi
• +1 loss: Ryuden, Shishi (maybe)
• +2 losses: Shishi (definitely), Tokihayate, Wakanosho (longshot)
• +3 losses: Nishikifuji, Wakanosho (definitely)

Asahakuryu, Roga and Mitakeumi secured their places in the top divisions with wins, while Tamawashi and Oshoumi were pushed past the threshold; they both need to win out and hope for help in juryo to have a prayer, likely including exchange matches. No matter how you feel about Ryuden, you have to credit him for hanging in there so stubbornly; his match today has exchange implications.

Big Day 13 matches: Asasuiryu vs. Ryuden, Shishi vs. Asahakuryu, Roga vs. Tokihayate, Wakanosho vs. Nishikifuji

Promotion from juryo to makuuchi

• Promotion:
• +1 win: Takerufuji, Onokatsu, Daiseizan
• +2 wins: Asasuiryu, Kazuma
• +3 wins: Kyokukaiyu, Kazekeno (longshot)

Last night: Onokatsu and Daiseizan were both thwarted in attempts to punch their tickets, and several others took a step closer to promotion. Tomokaze is out of contention with his loss. Kazekeno lost; he's still got a longshot chance for promotion, but only if he wins out and most of the +1 and +2 group fail.

Big Day 13 matches of importance: ***Kazuma vs. Kazekeno***, Onokatsu vs. Midorifuji, Daiseizan vs. Toshinofuji, Tamashoho vs. Takerufuji, Asasuiryu vs. Ryuden

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Demotion from juryo to makushita

• Demotion: Okaryu
• +1 loss: Hakuyozan
• +2 losses: Nishikigi, Kayo (maybe)
• +3 losses: Tochitaikai, Enho, Kayo (definitely), Tohakuryu (maybe)

Last night: Hitoshi and Shirokuma are both out of danger with their wins. Kayo gained himself a little breathing room and sent Okaryu to the void.

Big Day 13 matches: Daikosho vs. Hakuyozan, Nishinoryu vs. Nishikigi, Sadanoumi vs. Kayo

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Promotion from makushita to juryo

• +1 win: Fujitensei, Arashifuji
• +1 win, with overpromotion: Tanji, Daikosho, Kotokuzan, Himukamaru, Gojinyu
• +0 wins, with overpromotion: Arashifuji

Big Day 13 matches: (See above), Tanji vs. Gonoumi

No changes from yesterday here, as none of the listed guys had matches. Daikosho's match against Hakuyozan today is part of the standard cross-division scheduling w/ odd number rikishi, but in this case, it could also end up being an exchange.

Don't see the normal guy posting, so here's my shot at it. Obviously winning exchange matches could result in people who hit their loss number being spared and losing exchange matches could lead to people hitting their win number denied.

One thing affecting the juryo-to-makuuchi picture is the potential for a 3rd (4th counting Aonishiki's demotion) sekiwake slot caused by Wakatakakage forcing his way in with 11 wins, along with a Kotoshosho and Atamifuji KK. That would delete the M17 east rank.

Sanyaku Watch!

• Aonishiki: Demoted from ozeki to sekiwake
• Takayasu: Demoted from komusubi to maegashira
• Kotoshoho: +1 win to remain at sekiwake
• Atamifuji: +3 wins to remain at sekiwake
• Wakatakakage: +3 wins to force additional sekiwake slot

Demotion to juryo from makuuchi

• +1 loss: Ryuden, Tamawashi, Oshoumi
• +2 losses: Shishi (maybe)
• +3 losses: Tokihayate, Shishi (definitely), Wakanosho (maybe)
• +4 losses: Nishikifuji, Wakanosho (definitely), Asahakuryu (maybe), Mitakeumi (maybe), Roga (maybe)

Big Day 12 matches of importance: Kyokukaiyu vs. Tamawashi; Ryuden vs. Tokihayate, Shishi vs. Mitakeumi, Oshoumi vs. Asahakuryu

Promotion from juryo to makuuchi

• +1 win: Onokatsu, Daiseizan
• +2 wins: Takerufuji
• +3 wins: Asasuiryu, Kazuma
• +4 wins: Kyokukaiyu, Kazekeno, Tomokaze

Big Day 12 matches of importance: Kazuma vs. Daiseizan, Onokatsu vs. Meisei, Takerufuji vs. Kagayaki

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Demotion from juryo to makushita

• +1 loss: Okaryu
• +2 losses: Hakuyozan
• +3 losses: Nishikigi, Kayo
• +4 losses: Hitoshi, Tochitaikai, Enho, Tohakuryu (maybe), Shirokuma (maybe)

Big Day 12 matches: Okaryu vs. Kayo, Hakuyozan vs. Shirokuma, Nishikigi vs. Tokifuho (Ms)

Most or all of these guys could be spared because of how weak the promotion group from makushita is looking. Even in the best-case scenario, they would have to want to overpromote people in order to bring more than two up.

Promotion from makushita to juryo

• +1 win: Fujitensei, Arashifuji
• +1 win, with overpromotion: Tanji, Daikosho, Kotokuzan, Himukamaru, Gojinyu
• +0 wins, with overpromotion: Arashifuji

Big Day 12 matches: None