YOLO - Market Doesn't Understand Mattel (MAT)

YOLO - Market Doesn't Understand Mattel (MAT)

The market seems to think it has Mattel figured out - (I miss you, em dash) a floundering toy maker that can only hope for a consumer discretionary recovery.

Softer than expected demand for its toys over the holiday season appeared to push Mattel stock off the cliff and after a dead cat bounce, a gradual downward incline with increasing shorts against the company. It's an attractive short against the consumer amidst inflation, eye watering national debt, geopolitical turmoil, and a challenging job market.

As regarded as I am, I have to disagree and point to a future that positions Mattel as an entertainment powerhouse across gaming, TV, and film.

Bears may point to the latest He-Man adaptation, Masters of the Universe, as a reason to be skeptical. Do a quick search though, and you'll find even the pundits aren't convinced they should be bearish. There's a lot of mixed sentiment, with some point to Amazon MGM happily holding the bag with around a ~$200M budget and a middling box office. Some point to streaming and toy sales as the panacea here.

That seems to be the implication behind an Amazon/MGM executive's statement published by Variety: "[Director] Travis Knight and the entire cast and filmmaking team have delivered something truly special, and this opening is exactly the kind of critical first moment that validates our holistic distribution strategy—building awareness and engagement that will carry well beyond the theatrical window.”

There's streaming and there's the whole host of branded merch and toys that Amazon is selling.

And Mattel already has another film ready for later this year - Matchbox: The Movie, an adventure comedy film starring John Cena. Maybe the market can't see the potential here, but I think it's clear to see...

Between film, TV, and gaming (last quarter also came with a statement that Mattel is buying out NetEase's 50% stake in their joint venture, Mattel163), and given their CEO (who has a solid background in entertainment and kicked off his first year by alleviating production woes and pushing forward the popular Barbie movie) there's a powerful entertainment division in the making that can propel Mattel into growth.

tl;dr - toy company goes digital, regard approves

u/PKLeor — 8 days ago

Failed Withdrawals?

Does anyone else have troubles with withdrawals? On a margin account, used to being able to withdraw easily from Robinhood, Webull, Fidelity… but frequently have withdrawals rejected on Public. Which then eventually leads to my account being frozen.

I work in finance, I know about fraud prevention mechanisms. just wondering if this is a me thing like they’ve flagged me, or if others are experiencing this and if it’s more so systematic.

reddit.com
u/PKLeor — 13 days ago

Not RIP Ultra Gen 1 (watchOS 27 beta available)

Saw the post about allegedly dropped support per the watchOS 27 page. I worked at Apple for over 6 years, and that would be a massive departure from the norm. Beta shows it’s available for Ultra gen 1, which shouldn’t be the case if it’s not supported. Appears to me like a documentation error on the watchOS page, not dropped support.

Also, the team that maintains the website is not the same team that handles the software itself, so if I had to guess, there was a disconnect along the way / someone missed this during review. I’ll see if I still have a contact with the Watch team.

Edit: no, it’s not downloadable quite yet. But that it’s selectable at all means it was added from a technical standpoint. I’d take that over an Apple.com page. A mentee of mine at one point had access to Apple.com pages. It’s very possible to make a mistake.

The Big Edit: 9to5 Mac article just dropped where Apple is reported to have confirmed support for Series 9. This does not exclude Ultra and other models, mind you. Wait for the page update. I’d expect some older models as well, though we’ll see on that front.

u/PKLeor — 29 days ago

Top Soraka Play / MVP Sion - fun match

Legendary queue. The team definitely owes much of the match result to Sion here. Made some mistakes, but generally good plays with Soraka for anyone curious about the Archangel Staff + Redemption build in action.

u/PKLeor — 1 month ago

Baiting a Malphite as Soraka (‘Tank’ Build)

So I saw the Malph there, we were at end game, and I see him seeing me. I'm like okay, I have flash ready, he's going to go for me, team is right here, I'm not going to panic flash. I don't want him getting away. But you can see I mashed that flash button after he ulted in, so I'd be out the moment his CC timed out. Archangel's Staff kicked in with a barrier that took a chunk of the damage, and my bonus health ensured I wasn't a squishy
Kind've a ‘troll’ title in terms of build. It's not truly tank fully, but it definitely makes Soraka a lot more durable, as you'll see here. Archangel's Staff into Redemption, then situational. Can also throw in Warmog's, though need to get some heal items in too, so that's a very rare add for me, but I've seen it in other top builds. Was #1 Soraka last season, Top 150 right now while I don't have much time to play.

u/PKLeor — 1 month ago

Initially a rough moment for the team, but the getaway and last second takedown helped with morale. Love the Pantheon at the end (last few seconds). 😂

I get hearts, but not often, ‘I love you, supp,’

Ended up staging a solid lead. Team was smart about not overextending. That’s the biggest thing that can make playing Soraka a nightmare - laners who flame while going 1v4/1v5 and expecting you to join them and feed too. Nah. This Pantheon was smart. Flashed out, had support, dove in for a 2v1 with support at ready, bounced after. Not too greedy, trusted I’d back him up and acted accordingly. With how my other games went today… the Panth would have probably died chasing that Thresh.

u/PKLeor — 2 months ago