u/Peterli87

Every 2% move:

“GUYS WHY IS IT DOWN???”

“Is something happening???”

“Should I sell???”

“Can someone please tell me we’ll be green tomorrow?”

“My average is $XXX. Am I cooked?”

Stock goes +7%:

“$500 INCOMING 🚀🚀🚀 AI SUPERCYCLE HAS BEGUN”

Stock goes -3% the next morning:

“I’ve been doing a lot of thinking about my future lately.”

Some of you don’t need technical analysis. You need to turn off Robinhood, go outside, touch grass and call your father.

Nobody here knows where SNDK will be tomorrow. The guy giving you a 14-paragraph explanation about why the bottom is definitely in is sitting on the toilet looking at the same Yahoo Finance chart as you.

Please return this sub to its original purpose:

Arguing about NAND pricing, drawing increasingly delusional lines on charts, calculating imaginary future EPS, calling every dip “healthy consolidation,” and explaining why this memory cycle is totally different this time.
Thank you.

And remember:

If SNDK goes up tomorrow, we’re geniuses.
If it goes down, market manipulation.

Genuinely curious🧸 … let’s hear your price target, by when, and WHY.

And please don’t forget the classics 😂 NAND cycle, peak margins, supply/demand, China/YMTC, “AI is priced in”, $2300 was the top forever etc…

Give me the actual bear case and a number. Lets come back to this post in a few months and see who cooked.

Feel like people are kinda sleeping on the fact SNDK has Investor Day literally next week…

Stock just got smacked after earnings, but the numbers themselves were still pretty nuts. The big question is basically whether these margins and NAND pricing can actually last.

Well… management now gets an entire Investor Day to explain exactly that lol.

If they come out with strong AI/data center demand, more color on long term contracts, supply staying tight and basically show that this isn’t just peak cycle earnings… narrative could flip pretty damn fast.

Options are interesting too… max pain is ~$1,435 for Aug 14 and ~$1,650 for Aug 21. Obviously NOT price targets… but still pretty wild positioning right around Investor Day.

And SNDK is sitting in negative gamma right now, so moves can get exaggerated either way.

If Investor Day delivers… this thing could get spicy pretty quickly.

Now enjoy a great weekend!

It’s funny how quickly people forget what happened last quarter.

Q3 earnings (April 30):
SanDisk absolutely crushed expectations.
Revenue: $5.95B vs $4.70B expected
EPS: $23.41 vs about $14.50 expected
Guidance was also well above consensus.

What happened?

The stock immediately dropped around 6–10% after hours.

Everyone started saying the same things we’re hearing today:

“Peak cycle.”
“Margins can’t get any better.”
“Pricing is slowing.”
“Sell the news.”

Then the earnings call started.

Management answered questions, explained the outlook, and investors started digesting the details instead of just reading the headlines.

By the next trading day the stock had closed about 8% higher, and over the following weeks it eventually ran to roughly $2,335.

Now compare that with today.

Another huge beat.

Revenue beat.

EPS beat.

New long-term AI customer agreements.

An additional $14B buyback authorization.

Yet the initial reaction is negative because Q1 guidance came in a bit below the Street’s lofty expectations.

Will history repeat exactly? Nobody knows.

But we’ve literally seen this stock sell off immediately after a blowout report before, only for sentiment to completely reverse once investors focused on the fundamentals instead of the first algorithmic reaction.

The biggest question tonight isn’t whether the quarter was good.

It’s whether management convinces investors that AI storage demand, enterprise SSD growth, and pricing power remain intact into 2027.

For Lucid, there’s been a lot of speculation about a potential take-private or even Chapter 11. Stock just nose diver so something is up - Nothing is confirmed yet, but the market is clearly pricing in some kind of major event right now.

If either of those happens, I honestly think it’s a big win for Rivian.

• Rivian becomes the clear public EV growth story outside Tesla.

• Less competition for customers, talent, suppliers and investor dollars.

• More attention shifts to the company that’s actually ramping production, has the VW JV, a stronger balance sheet, the DOE financing path and R2 right around the corner.

Add in improving deliveries, higher guidance and a financing overhang that’s already behind us, and I think Rivian is in the strongest position it’s been in for years. If the R2 execution goes well, I wouldn’t be surprised if this is where the market starts separating Rivian from the rest of the EV pack.

My biggest takeaway is this: the market had every reason to send this stock toward $15 after the offering. Instead, buyers stepped in immediately, institutions absorbed 75M new shares, and the stock spent the rest of the week trading well above the deal price. That’s not what a broken chart looks like.

Outlook:
• The financing overhang is gone.
• The balance sheet is stronger heading into the R2 ramp and DOE financing.
• Analysts have already started raising price targets, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see more upgrades next week.
• Earnings are now the next big catalyst. We’ve already seen strong deliveries, higher guidance and preliminary revenue. If margins, cash burn and the R2/Georgia update are solid too, I think the market starts looking beyond 2026.
• Short interest is still elevated. If RIVN reclaims $18 next week, I think $20 becomes a realistic retest, especially if more analysts upgrade and momentum buyers continue stepping in.

• The 75M share offering priced at $15.50, raising roughly $1.16B gross for Rivian.

• RIVN opened around $15.43, below the offering price. At that point the bear case looked obvious: dilution, weak pricing, red market, more downside.

• Instead, the breakdown completely failed. RIVN reclaimed $15.50 → $16 → Tuesday’s $16.49 close, then pushed into the $16.70s late in the day.

• 110M shares traded, even more than Tuesday’s huge 88.5M washout volume, while the broader market remained red. That relative strength is hard to ignore.

• The offering book was also reportedly oversubscribed.
For anyone unfamiliar: that means investors requested more than the 75M shares Rivian was selling. It doesn’t guarantee the stock goes up, but it suggests real demand for the deal. If some funds received fewer shares than they wanted, they may also buy more in the open market.

• The reported allocation was also very concentrated: top 10 investors reportedly took 75% of the deal and the top 25 took 95%. If accurate, that suggests most of the offering went into the hands of a relatively small group of large investors rather than being scattered across thousands of weak hands.

• The short angle is interesting too. RIVN already had a large short base, and Tuesday saw heavy short-selling activity. Anyone who shorted expecting the $15.50 offer price to trigger another collapse got exactly the setup they wanted at the open… and it failed.

• Once RIVN reclaimed the offer price, then $16, then $16.49, I’d be surprised if some short-term shorts weren’t starting to buy back and lock in profits. Holding a short overnight also becomes a lot less comfortable when the stock just rejected the breakdown on nearly 100M volume and is pushing near the highs into the close.

• I don’t think this was some forced short squeeze. More likely a mix of real buying, huge absorption, dip buyers, underallocated deal buyers potentially adding, momentum returning and some shorts covering.

The sequence is what matters to me:
$15.50 deal → opens below it → breakdown fails → massive volume absorbed → offer price reclaimed → $16 reclaimed → Tuesday close reclaimed → strength into the close, all in a red market.

And the actual company story that drove the rally before the offering didn’t disappear: stronger Q2 deliveries, raised 2026 guidance, R2 momentum, and now another ~$1.16B gross in capital for the next phase.

After Tuesday’s 18% dump, this is about as strong a first-day response as I could’ve hoped for. If $17 breaks and holds, things could get interesting fast. Definitely bullish.

• BNP Paribas just raised their price target from 22 to 24!!!

• 75M share offering priced at $15.50 overnight

• RIVN opened around $15.43, actually below the offering price

• Instead of breaking down, it reclaimed $15.50 quickly and pushed back above $16

• Now trading around $16.22, roughly +5% from the open and +4.6% above the offering price

• Already 56M shares traded in ~2 hours — about 75% of the entire 75M share offering and over 60% of yesterday’s ~90M volume

• This is happening after yesterday’s 18% washout and with the broader market still under pressure

• The path matters: opened below offer price → massive volume → buyers absorbed the selling → offer price reclaimed → $16 reclaimed

Still early, but this is pretty much the bullish aftermarket scenario I was hoping for. $16.49 is the next big level. If that gets reclaimed on this kind of volume, I think the “offering overhang getting absorbed fast” thesis becomes much stronger.

Still bullish.

I’ve been looking deeper into Rivian’s new 75M share offering, past RIVN raises, and what typically happens after similar offerings. My takeaway is actually more bullish than bearish overall, especially beyond the immediate reaction.

Yes, the dilution is real, roughly 6–7% by my estimate, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see some short-term pressure around the final offering price. But I think the market may be underestimating why Rivian is raising now.

The timing looks pretty smart to me:
• Q2 deliveries beat expectations
• 2026 delivery guidance was just raised to 65k–70k
• The stock rallied strongly before the offering
• R2 is finally moving from story to actual commercial ramp
• The raise could bring in roughly $1.3B–$1.6B of fresh capital
• Some proceeds are connected to equity contributions under the DOE financing structure

To me, this looks less like an emergency cash raise and more like Rivian using strength to further de-risk the most important growth phase in the company’s history.
The obvious negative is serial dilution. Rivian already issued ~63M shares to VW in April at $15.90, and now another 75M+ shares are coming. That’s significant and shouldn’t be ignored.

But if this additional capital strengthens the balance sheet, supports access to larger DOE-linked financing, and gives Rivian more runway through the R2 ramp, I think the long-term value creation could easily outweigh the dilution.

My prediction:
Short term, I think we could trade around $18–$20 and possibly test the offering price.

But over the next 1–3 months, I’m bullish. My base case is a recovery toward $20–$24, with $24–$28 very possible if the offering prices well and R2 execution continues to surprise positively.

My rough 3-month probabilities:
10% → below $15
15% → $15–$18
20% → $18–$20
30% → $20–$24
20% → $24–$28
5% → above $28

My personal base case is around $22–$24 in 3 months.

The final offering price is the big thing to watch. If Rivian can price this around $19 or higher, I’d see that as a very strong signal of institutional demand.

Overall, I’m bullish. I think the market is focusing on the immediate dilution while potentially missing the bigger picture: Rivian may be raising $1.5B-ish at exactly the right time to reduce financing risk ahead of the R2 ramp and Georgia expansion.

If R2 works, I think people will look back at this raise very differently than they do today.

Curious if anyone else sees this as a smart opportunistic raise rather than a red flag?

Anyone able to find the Kelloggs Mini Wheats or similar store brand versions in Switzerland ?