u/PhotographSerious743

I know the Nemec reports got all but rescinded, and Demidov is young and growing....and that these 2 players are unrelated, but:

Nemec was reached for at 2 by the Devils in 2022 because, as always, RHD were/are in short supply and high demand. Right behind him went Logan Cooley at 3 and Cutter Gauthier at 5. How it's going for these guys-

• Nemec: Distressed asset. Can't break top pair D or the PP1 QB, getting buried on depth chart, been in trade talks for the last year. Rescinded reports or not, the bar for a #2 pick is high - and relative to what went 3 and 5, he's not clearing it
• Cooley: Just signed an $80M (8yr) extension. Currently a high end 2C and will probably become a 1C shortly
• Gauthier: Just had a 40 goal season, and put up 12 points in 12 playoff games

Two years later, Levshunov was reached for at 2 by the Blackhawks in 2024 because, as always, RHD were/are in short supply and high demand. Right behind him went Beckett Sennecke at 3 and Ivan Demidov at 5. I'll exclude Sennecke since that's revisionist history, since he seemed to be a shock pick at 3, but here's how it's going for the other 2 guys:

• Levshunov: According to Hockeystat cards, for this year - he had a percentile 0 defense rating and percentile 1 net rating . His offense is league-average (percentile 44), and the Blackhawks team isn't doing him favors - but XGA of 57.70 against XGF of 38.88 is genuinely bad regardless of team. Still young, still developing, but nothing in these numbers suggests a top pair guy is in there. (I know hockeystat cards is only 1 source, but it matches the narrative on the kid, plus that site really passes the sniff test with other players)
• Demidov: 62 points in 82 games in his rookie year (only played 2 NHL games year prior). Already a strong RW2 on a team that may make the Cup finals this year. Would be RW1 on many teams, but Montreal has a heck of a first line

I know these D men are young, and take time to develop, but their forward counterparts in the same drafts are already contributing to their teams' playoff success. Yes, RHD are scarce and expensive, but that's exactly the problem with reaching for one early. If he doesn't pan out, you've burned a top pick on the asset class everyone is already overpaying for. We supposedly have this unreal overly deep asset pool of forwards; let's use them to buy proven D men rather than gambling on projection. Even if it has to be an overpay, it seems worth it that other teams took the risk and developed them... seems more of the cost of doing the business than a blatant overpay. I'm open to any and all arguments, and I trust Grier - but in drafts where there isn't a Matthew Schaefer, the risk profile on taking the D man is brutal.

I got bored and decided to use 2 of my favorite hockey sites, Puckpedia and HockeyStatCards, to do some "analysis" on this FA Defenseman class. Off the jump, it does feel as bleak as many are saying. For this very naive exercise, just as an initial gut check, I'm going to base things solely off of this past years HockeyStatCard ratings (I know, it only tells part of the story). I have some thoughts.

Of note: Out of the player pool, I only included pending UFA/RFA D-men this year, and didn't project further out because of 1) uncertainty 2) I didn't have the time. That said, here are a few of random recommendations (potentially additive - not either/or) that have more data than someone randomly yelling on twitter, but just by a little:

1. See what the deal is with the following pending RFAs:

• Jordan Spence, 25, RD, Sens
• Brandt Clarke, 23, RD, Kings
• Simon Edvinsson, 23, LD, Red Wings
• Emil Andrae, 24, LD, Flyers
• Jamie Drysdale, 24, RD, Flyers
• Alex Nikishin, 24, LD, Canes
• Olen Zellweger, 22, LD, Ducks

I know that they'll all probably get big contracts, but the same way we still seem to be on the fence with Mukh, maybe one of these teams feels the same way about one of these guys.

2. Re-sign Mario and Desharnais. Both absolutely fine 2nd/3rd pair defensive D men

3. Pursue bigger name UFAs

• Darren Raddysh, 30, RD, Tampa
• Rasmus Andersson, 29, RD, Vegas
• Maybe John Carlson, 36, RD, Ducks (don't know his plans after 36)

These are the big name guys this class, and this general data shows why. Raddysh is at risk of a limited sample size of being good, but obviously Grier felt fine getting Sherwood after a similar sample size. But - absolutely kick the tires on these guys, and it's fine to overpay, but don't force a contract where we're holding the bag

4. Pursue slightly smaller name UFAs

• Ryan Shea, 29, LD, Pens
• Connor Clifton, 31, RD, Pens
• Nick Blankenburg, 27, RD, Avs

They aren't too old. Based on general numbers they are better than what we had last year. 2 of them are RD. I don't know much about them, so chances are they won't be in the overpriced category. They seem like they'd be reasonably priced upgrades that would push our blue line from very bad to average

https://preview.redd.it/vaynfkp2b70h1.png?width=1522&format=png&auto=webp&s=a5936757a39f09b68c018dc2eced0cccffb65ef5