Semi Analysis decided to repush their hit piece on IREN from a few weeks ago today on X. Listen to Kent’s response which very simply discredits everything they said in their report. Today’s share price drop was due to bond yields, but SA continuing to push their false claims is still doing some damage at the margin.

I personally think IREN should hit them with a defamation suit. That report is doing a lot of harm to their reputation and the longer they let it go unchallenged the more harm it’ll do. After all, I’m sure most shareholders never watched this Power Analysis interview and are taking the SA report as fact.

Analyst comments by Gregory Lewis:

IREN is one of the few vertically integrated (think power and compute) Al service providers with over 5GW of potential power capacity (will soon have ~500MW online) and a preferred provider of Nvidia (NVDA, Not Rated) GPUs, which has helped IREN build a ~$4B run-rate GPU as a service (GPUaaS) business.

More importantly, IREN expects to bring on ~730MW of compute next year, including the first ~300MW at its ~ 2GW Sweetwater site in Texas that management noted is conditionally included in Batch Zero baseload. And while the near-term focus is on building out its GPU footprint in the US, IREN has ~1.1GW of international power capacity in Spain and Australia, which looks well-positioned for work as the rest of the world plays catch-up on its lack of computing power (estimates point to over 80% of Europe's current compute needs happening in the US).

And while we like IREN's power portfolio, its GPU business should benefit from its existing contract structures (~4 years), which should provide repricing opportunities into what we expect to be a strong compute pricing market over the next few years. Bottom line: We expect IREN to continue to benefit from a tight market for both power and compute, which should keep GPU rental rates firm to higher.

We reiterate our Buy rating and $80 PT.

Analyst comments by Reginald Smith:

We are upgrading IREN to Overweight. We see IREN establishing itself as a top tier neocloud provider, backed by its strategic partnership with NVIDIA. The company has gained momentum in signing customers and industry pricing has moved up substantially. Neocloud contracts have gone from $10-15/W to $15-20/ W and higher today depending on delivery, GPU generation, and contract duration.

Customer pre-payments, which help fund GPU procurement, have ranged from 25-50% and we expect pre-payments to remain a part of future neolcoud deals. IREN has increased its calendar year-end 2026 expected ARR from $3.4b last November to $3.7b in May of this year and, most recently, up to $4.0b. The company has $1b in operating ARR today and delivered the first (Horizon 1) of four 50 MW buildings (200 MW total; capacity as IT unless noted) under the contract with Microsoft. Horizon 2-4 (150 MW total) are expected to be delivered by the end of calendar 2026.

The company's largest contract announcements are with Microsoft and Nvidia, but an unnamed recent signing is a multi-year contract with a leading frontier Al lab. IREN has also signed deals with Prometheus, Figure Al, Perplexity, Together Al, Fluidstack, Hume Al, Fireworks Al, Fal Al, Higgsfield, and Cohere. While the company has laid out its plans to spend $25-30b of capex in FY27, along with substantial increases in opex, we believe the company's ~0.5 GW expansion in 2027 could be signed at materially higher prices than past deals in the $12-15/W range. Any contracts above $15/W would be highly accretive to financials.

We do see some near-term risks for the 2027 pipeline, derived from the current audit on data center interconnection requests in Texas. If the audit and verification process persists beyond the mid-terms in November, projects could see delays in development timelines. As a positive development, IREN last week announced Sweetwater 1 and 2 had both been conditionally included in ERCOT's Batch Zero process as Base Load.

We move to an Overweight rating and establish a Dec-27 PT of $65 (vs. a Dec-26 PT of $46 prior).

$96.12 breakeven 🔥

https://www.ft.com/content/27c07fd7-dc7d-42ec-9b89-38bb14cc1676 (paywall)

Al computing demand may never be sated, says CEO of Nvidia partner Iren

The world’s supply of computing power is unlikely ever to catch up with AI demand, according to the boss of Nvidia partner Iren, who called the AI data centre build-out “fundamentally different” from past investment cycles. 

Dozens of emerging AI data centre developers and Big Tech groups are racing to bring online new facilities packing together racks of thousands of Nvidia and Google AI processors. 

Goldman Sachs expects the build-out to double US data centre capacity from 2024 levels by the end of 2027, and to more than triple it by 2030, reaching about 125GW — enough energy to power more than 100 cities the size of San Francisco.

Even as Iren prepares to spend up to $30bn on its AI ambitions over the coming year, Daniel Roberts, co-chief executive and co-founder of Iren, told the FT: “It’s really hard to see how the supply curve ever overtakes [the] demand side, really hard.”

A crypto miner turned AI infrastructure upstart, Iren is one of several Nvidia-backed “neocloud” companies, including Nebius, Nscale and CoreWeave, that are taking on Big Tech’s dominance of the AI cloud computing market.

Nasdaq-listed Iren’s customers include Microsoft and Perplexity, as well as Nvidia, which is also a key supplier of chips to Iren.

“This industry is potentially unique, in the sense that every unit of supply you bring online actually feeds a multiple of that in additional demand, rather than solving the existing demand,” Roberts said. The growth of AI agents and faster processing times mean more consumption of computing resources, he explained.

“At risk of saying ‘this time is different’, I think there is something fundamentally different about this” from past commodity and investment cycles, he said. 

Roberts added that the physical world was itself a check on oversupply, with builders already “hitting social, political, physical thresholds around the availability of power”. Many communities across the US are mounting opposition to data centre construction in their areas, citing concerns about the impact on local energy and water supplies.

Over the past three years, Roberts has transformed the company he founded as Iris Energy with his brother in Sydney in 2018. The brothers have turned it from a Bitcoin miner that had defaulted on most of its mining-rig loans and drawn a going-concern warning from its auditor into one of Nvidia’s important neocloud partners.

Iren’s market value has risen from a post-crypto crash low of about $60mn in late 2022 to roughly $17bn today; its shares have swung from about $1 to a high of $76.

Its volatile trajectory mirrors that of a number of neoclouds and AI infrastructure developers racing to build the AI industry’s physical backbone. They face huge rewards if the computing boom continues but also large risks, from heavy debt, a concentrated customer base and fast-depreciating chips, should supply outrun demand.

Iren is among the few AI infrastructure upstarts to own the entire stack, from the land and buildings to computing equipment and the software layer on top.
Owning the full stack, and largely forgoing the long-term leases rivals use to secure hyperscaler tenants and cheap debt, lets Iren benefit from rising compute prices. But it has also required greater share issuance, with its total share count now at about 394mn, up from 55mn at its initial public offering.

Roberts compared long-term leases his rivals have signed to sales by another name. “You’ve just given up the greatest, scarcest asset that probably exists in the world at the moment, and sold it to someone else to monetise. We just don’t think that’s very strategic.”

The company has still been able to raise huge sums. In the past 12 months, Iren has secured about $19bn, through issuing convertible notes, chip-backed debt, customer pre-payments and equity. Most of the proceeds are used to buy Nvidia processors and build the data centres to house them.

“It’s incredible the amount of capital that’s starting to mobilise,” said Roberts.

Iren this summer raised $3.65bn in chip-backed financing at 6 per cent, tied to a Microsoft offtake agreement, and last week secured a further $2.4bn from Blue Owl and funds managed by Pimco. That deal priced at 9 per cent, reflecting the weaker credit of its AI-lab customers, among them Cohere and Perplexity, than investment-grade Microsoft.

Both facilities are also secured against Nvidia processors, with the chipmaker’s deepening involvement as supplier, customer and would-be shareholder central to Iren’s transformation.

In May, Nvidia signed a five-year, $3.4bn contract to rent capacity from Iren for its own workloads and took rights to acquire up to $2.1bn of stock, at $70 a share, that vest as Iren takes delivery of up to 600,000 Nvidia chips.

Roberts called the structure “powerful” with a critical supplier tied to “a metric that defines [our] success — ie how big and how many GPUs do we get”. Graphics processing units are the Nvidia chips that have become the workhorses of the AI boom.

He dismissed the circular-financing concerns that analysts have raised about such Nvidia deals, arguing the chipmaker was strategically breaking down barriers to the growth of the AI ecosystem, and, in turn, its own business. “One of the levers they have is their balance sheet.”

Roberts said Iren talks to Nvidia almost daily, including on financial matters. “They continue to evolve how they look to support all aspects of the ecosystem — they continue to provide ideas.”

Iren ended June with $7.6bn of cash on its balance sheet and an equal amount of debt. It has $3.5bn left on a $6bn at-the-market share sale programme and a portfolio of data centres it has yet to mortgage as the group prepares to spend up to $30bn on AI infrastructure in the year to June 2027.

The real ramp, Roberts said in a recent X post, comes next year: “It’s delivery time.”

https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/iren-iren-gains-clearer-path-170708035.html

IREN (NasdaqGS: IREN) is set to benefit from the Public Utility Commission of Texas unanimously approving a new 765-kilovolt transmission line to the Permian Basin.

The approval directly targets power availability near IREN's Sweetwater campuses, a key constraint for scaling its Texas data center operations.

The transmission upgrade is expected to support future expansion of AI and data center capacity for operators across the region.

This regulatory decision introduces a clearer path for large scale, grid-connected computing projects in one of the most power constrained growth areas in the US.

This type of grid and data center build out affects many companies tied to AI infrastructure, so it is worth comparing IREN's position against peers exposed to similar power focused growth drivers through 55 AI infrastructure stocks.

IREN is a US listed, vertically integrated AI cloud services platform with operations in Australia and Canada, so dependable access to large scale, low cost power is central to how it builds and runs its data centers. For readers tracking AI infrastructure exposure, this Texas grid development directly affects how IREN can plan and execute its next phase of capacity build out.

How does the Texas transmission approval actually help IREN's AI build out?
The new 765 kilovolt line targets one of the tightest power bottlenecks near IREN's Sweetwater campuses in West Texas. For an operator trying to scale grid connected AI data centers, clearer long term access to large blocks of power can reduce a major execution risk that sits outside its direct control.

Does this change the IREN narrative or just support what was already in motion?
The narrative already focuses on IREN's ability to secure grid connected power and run a vertically integrated AI cloud platform across multiple regions. This Texas decision aligns with that thesis because it addresses a stated risk around grid interconnection delays and power scarcity in key markets such as West Texas.

What should investors watch next to see if this is really helping IREN?
One clear early test is whether IREN discloses specific Sweetwater build and energization milestones that relate directly to this transmission route, such as contracted megawatts and target in service dates. If those timelines start to slip or remain vague, it may indicate that the grid upgrade is slower to translate into usable capacity.

Key Points

IREN continues executing its Al strategy, scaling a 5GW portfolio with CY26 capacity largely sold out and ~$4bn contracted ARR.

FY26 earnings reflected ongoing BTC decommissioning, with Al Cloud revenue growth and ARR expansion accelerating the transition to Al.

Tactical M&A, strategic partnerships, and an expanding GPU financing ecosystem support IREN's scaled Al infrastructure deployment globaliy.

——

F4Q26 reflected meaningful scaling of IREN's Al Cloud platform. While top- and bottom-line misses were reflective of BTC mining decommissioning and investment around Al Cloud, pace of ARR ramp and new deals/site construction impressed. Al Cloud revenue more than doubled QoQ to $70.5m, contracted ARR increased to ~S4bn, and FY26 capacity is largely sold out. Mgmt emphasized strengthening contract economics: customer prepayments are funding ~45-55% of GPU capex, with recent financings at ~90-100% LTV, demonstrating that attractive debt remains available even beyond investment-grade counterparties, supporting an equity-light expansion model.

Mgmt. is actively converting secured power into contracted compute. IREN signed a new multi-year Al Cloud contract with a leading frontier Al lab, in addition to existing customers Cohere, Prometheus, Perplexity, Figure Al, and more. There's ~$1bn in ARR operational today, and late-stage discussions under way for CY27 GPU capacity. Pricing has also been rising with recent contracts >$20m/IT MW (~2 yr. hardware payback) and forward discussions progressing at ~$25m/lT MW.

Portfolio strength spans the full stack. Horizon 1 delivered to MSFT Aug. 13, NVIDIA Exemplar Cloud status achieved on GB300 NVL.72, and Mirantis named Nvidia's first certified hypervisor. Horizon 2 is commissioning, while Horizons 3-4 remain on track for delivery in C4Q26. Mgmt secured $2.8bn of new GPU financings, while DC infra remains unencumbered.

EBITDA changes: FY27/28E now $1,601.3/5,510.2m from $1,821.5/4,405.6m prior with the timing of BTC operations winding down by year-end and the ramp of GPU deployments in 1H27E.

Valuation: PT unchanged at $90 on incremental contracted capacity and relative power portfolio avalable for contracting beyond committed capacity, offset by higher debt in our SOTP.

Catalysts: Al sentiment; interest rates; regulation; geopolitics/energy.

Investment Thesis and Recommendation

Outperform. IREN is delivering the whole Al infra package, having acquired massively scaled sites globally, operationalizing/converting them for HPC, while managing and securing compute procurement, financing, installation, cluster management, and a software layer, all at the highest levels.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/101538/000110465926103384/xslF345X06/tm2624326-1\_4seq1.xml

Analyst commentary from Greg Miller:

While reported financial results remain influenced by the transition away from bitcoin mining, we believe the underlying Al cloud business continues to gain momentum. Al Cloud Services revenue increased to $70.5 million, from $33.6 million in the prior quarter, while bitcoin mining revenue declined to $66.7 million as capacity continues to be repurposed toward higher-value Al infrastructure deployments.

Although near-term reported results may remain uneven as additional capacity is commissioned, we believe IREN remains well positioned to participate in the continued growth of the Al infrastructure market, supported by $1.0 billion of ARR operating today, $4.0 billion of contracted ARR, improving contract economics and financing that continue to support future deployments.

We reiterate our Market Outperform rating and $80 price target, implying ~5.5x estimated FY2028 EV/EBITDA.

H.C. Wainwright analyst Mike Colonnese reiterated a Buy rating and $90.00 price target on IREN Ltd. (NASDAQ: IREN)

The analyst commented: 'Shares of IREN sold off over 8% after-hours following its F4Q26 earnings results yesterday (8/27), which we largely attribute to its newly announced $25-30B FY27 capex guide (and associated shareholder dilution concerns) and to a lesser extent the EBITDA miss ($19.2M vs St. $34.9M) rather than execution in the Al Cloud business.

We believe that IREN answered the three objectives that matter:

1. Revenue visibility: IREN now has $4B of ARR contracted for 2026 capacity (up from $3.4B as of the July update) to fully support management's previously stated C2026 exit run-rate Al Cloud revenue outlook of $4B (see our note Here. The step-up reflects a new multi-year agreement with an undisclosed frontier Al lab, additional customer signings, and existing customer renewals and expansions, although management did not quantify the ARR contribution by contract. The figure also excludes ~$700M of ARR from the NVIDIA contract expected to ramp in 2027. Of the $4.0B, $1.OB is operating today, with the balance set to ramp towards the end of this calendar year, as Horizons 2-4 deployments for Microsoft remain on track for C4Q26 after Horizon 1 was delivered in mid-August.
2. Pricing is moving in IREN's favor: three-year pricing has increased about 125% since November, recent contracts exceed $20M of annual revenue per IT MW with an estimated two-year compute payback, and current contract negotiations are around $25M per IT MW.
3. Financing secured: $6.5B of GPU financing raised over the past three months, together with customer prepayments, fund more than 100% of the associated GPU capex tied to IREN's $4B ARR target, including $2.8B for non-investment-grade deployments at single-digit rates. We reiterate our Buy rating and maintain our $90 price target.

I’ve seen a ton of people misinterpret today’s news that Citadel unwound some of the Situational Awareness book they acquired last month. I don’t think people understand what the report actually said so I wanted to make a few points.

Here’s the quote from CNBC that broke the news:

According to a letter obtained by CNBC’s Sara Eisen, Griffin told clients that Citadel has unwound more than 80% of the aggregate risk from the original portfolio purchased by conducting more than 100 block trades over $4 billion in market value.

First, Citadel didn’t sell 80% of the book, they sold 80% of the aggregate risk. This is a huge distinction because aggregate risk implies options like calls/puts/shorts. There’s a very good chance he still owns the longs.

Second point is that Citadel bought the fund on July 29 at a total book value of $16 billion. That was the low point for the entire fund, which has now rebounded substantially off those lows. These block trades valuing $4B is only a drop in the bucket of the total portfolio value. We don’t know what the exact book value is today, but just going off the July 29 valuation at the lows, this would only account for 25% of it. The actual $4B unwind in today’s valuation is probably closer to 10%, meaning 90% of the position is still intact.

Last point is that Ken Griffin, the founder and majority shareholder of Citadel, is extremely bullish on AI and US datacenters. Here’s a short clip of an interview he did with Goldman Sachs in June, a month before he bought SA’s fund. I very much believe he wants exposure to this sector and will keep the majority of the portfolio long term.

Tldr: Today’s news was not bearish. Citadel is still long.

It was +/-14% last Friday but this week’s dip is causing it to get wider. IREN is high beta but this is still a pretty wild range. If it does hit the lower end, I wouldn’t expect it to last long before it gets bid back up.

https://iren.com/resources/news/responsible-data-center-growth-how-iren-builds-in-texas

Texas is asking the right questions about data center growth: how to ensure Texans reap the benefits while protecting their natural resources. At IREN, that has been our approach from day one. 

Governor Abbott's recent directive calls for transparency on power and water use, grid reliability, and community protection in data center development. These are the right priorities, and they reflect how IREN has operated in Texas from day one. Reviews that ensure projects are in Texans' best interests help credible development move forward. Transparency builds trust. That is why IREN was among the small minority of companies that responded to the Public Utility Commission of Texas' survey on energy and water use. 

IREN builds data centers the right way. We hire locally. We live in the communities where we operate, and support them through training, local sponsorships, investment in community infrastructure and grants to community organizations. Our data centers don’t evaporate water for cooling; we recirculate it in a modern closed-loop system. Our commitment to responsible development and operation has guided our work in rural West Texas for years. That’s why we build our sites with significant setbacks from residential neighborhoods.  

Our Childress campus is a prime example. We located it several miles outside of town and funded all necessary grid upgrades to support the project. Its modern cooling system doesn’t rely on the local water supply. We have created over 200 permanent jobs, many of which are filled by Childress locals, making us one of the largest employers in the county. On top of that, we have hired thousands of construction workers and engaged local contractors over several years. We’re taking this approach at our Sweetwater campus as well. 

At IREN, we’re proudly investing billions of dollars and creating thousands of jobs in Texas, including at our new global operations hub in Fort Worth. Texas has been central to our growth, and we intend to keep building here the way we always have: responsibly, and for the long term. We look forward to working with the Governor's office, the PUCT and ERCOT as these standards take shape.