Cavalry FC are 2nd in CPL 2026 and unbeaten. We broke down every match with data. The reason they're succeeding is not what most people think.
Most people look at Cavalry sitting 2nd with 14 points and assume they're a high-energy pressing team grinding out results. The data tells a completely different story.
Cavalry are the most tactically adaptable team in CPL 2026. And that's why they're unbeaten.
The numbers that tell the story:
| Match | Possession | PPDA | xG | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Pacific | 46% | 14.06 | 2.55 | W 2-1 |
| vs Ottawa | 36% | 24.76 | 2.10 | W 3-1 |
| vs Forge | 64% | 8.88 | 0.47 | D 0-0 |
| vs Inter Toronto | 55% | 8.75 | 1.64 | D 1-1 |
| vs Supra | 51% | 8.09 | 1.12 | W 1-0 |
Look at that possession range. 36% against Ottawa. 64% against Forge. Same team. Completely different approach based on the opponent.
The Ottawa match — counter-attacking masterclass
Against the defending champions Cavalry sat deep deliberately. PPDA of 24.76 — the highest of any CPL team in any match this season — means they basically invited Ottawa to have the ball. Ottawa obliged with 64% possession. Cavalry absorbed it, hit on the counter and scored 3.
2.10 xG from 36% possession. That's elite counter-attacking efficiency. Warschewski and Musse were devastating in the space Ottawa left behind.
The Forge match — completely different game
Against Forge, Cavalry flipped the script entirely. 64% possession, PPDA 8.88 — they pressed aggressively and tried to control the game. The result was a 0-0 draw with only 0.47 xG. Forge's defensive structure neutralised everything.
The tactical flexibility to go from 36% possession to 64% possession in back to back matches is not something most CPL teams can do. That's coaching quality from Tommy Wheeldon Jr.
The defensive improvement is real
This is the stat that stands out most. Defensive duels won percentage across the season:
58.6% → 58.7% → 64.0% → 66.7% → 65.8%
They are getting more defensively disciplined every single game. That upward trend over 5 matches suggests a team that is cohesive, organised and improving as the season goes on. For context Pacific FC's defensive duels won percentage has been declining. Cavalry's is going the opposite direction.
Only 3 goals conceded in 5 matches. Two clean sheets. Against Forge — arguably the best attacking team in CPL — they kept a clean sheet comfortably.
The xG story — efficient but not dominant
Cavalry's xG numbers are solid but not spectacular — 2.55, 2.10, 0.47, 1.64, 1.12. They're not blowing teams away with chance creation. They're winning through organisation, adaptability and taking their chances when they come.
Warschewski's 2 goals from 2.26 xG — almost perfectly on xG. Clinical but not lucky. Musse with 1 goal from 0.78 xG — slightly overperforming. Klomp with 2 goals from 0.83 xG — a centre back scoring twice from set pieces, that's a massive bonus.
What makes them dangerous going forward
The consistent 4-2-3-1 system gives them a clear structure but the PPDA and possession data shows the coaches are willing to adapt the intensity and style based on opponent. That's a team with a clear identity AND tactical flexibility. The combination is rare in CPL.
The defensive duels trend suggests they peak later in the season — a team getting better as the weeks go on is exactly what you want heading into the playoffs.
The question the data raises
Can they keep this up against the top teams? The Forge draw showed their ceiling when pressed — 0.47 xG is low. If they face Forge again in a must-win situation, can they create enough? Warschewski at 28 and Musse in form are crucial — any injury to either changes the equation completely.
Cavalry aren't the most exciting team to watch. But the data says they're the smartest team in CPL 2026 right now.
What do you think — can they sustain this over a full 28-game season? And does Wheeldon Jr deserve more credit than he gets?
