r/TheDataMaple

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Pacific FC are bottom of the CPL table with 1 point from 5 games and 11 goals conceded. But the data tells a more specific story than just "bad form." There are actually two completely different Pacific teams hiding in these numbers.

April Pacific vs May Pacific

In their first two matches Pacific were dangerous. 1.46 xG vs Cavalry, 2.06 xG vs Supra. 34 box touches against Supra. They were creating real chances and playing with intent.

Then something broke.

vs HFX — 1.12 xG, 10 box touches vs Forge — 0.25 xG, 2 box touches, 0 shots on target vs Vancouver — 0.78 xG, 18 box touches

That Forge match is the number that should scare every Pacific fan. 2 box touches in a home game. They were completely suffocated. Forge didn't just beat them — they erased them from the pitch.

The defensive problem is structural

Pacific are actually pressing reasonably hard — PPDA between 7.88 and 10.06, interceptions between 22 and 62. The problem isn't effort. It's what happens when the press breaks down.

They faced 14, 16, 12, 9 and 15 shots against across five matches. That's an average of 13.2 shots against per game. For context Forge have faced an average of 8.3. Pacific are leaking chances at every level — high, medium and low press.

11 goals conceded in 5 games means they're conceding 2.2 per game. At that rate they finish the 28-game season with 62 goals against. That's last place by a distance.

The one bright spot

vs Supra on April 12 — 2.06 xG, 34 box touches, 9 shots on target, 52 interceptions. That was a real performance. If that Pacific shows up consistently they're a different team.

The question is whether that was the real Pacific FC — or the exception.

What needs to change

The data points to two things:

First — finishing. They created 1.46 xG vs Cavalry and scored 1 goal from 1 shot on target. That's poor conversion. The chances are there early in the season but they're not taking them.

Second — defensive shape after the press breaks. High interception numbers don't matter if the goals keep coming. Their defensive duels won percentage dropped from 64% to 50% across the season — they're losing more individual battles as confidence drops.

Pacific have 23 games left. They're not mathematically out of anything. But the data says the problems are real and getting worse, not better.

What do you think — is this a coaching problem, a squad depth problem, or just bad luck with results?

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Most people look at Cavalry sitting 2nd with 14 points and assume they're a high-energy pressing team grinding out results. The data tells a completely different story.

Cavalry are the most tactically adaptable team in CPL 2026. And that's why they're unbeaten.

The numbers that tell the story:

Match	Possession	PPDA	xG	Result
vs Pacific	46%	14.06	2.55	W 2-1
vs Ottawa	36%	24.76	2.10	W 3-1
vs Forge	64%	8.88	0.47	D 0-0
vs Inter Toronto	55%	8.75	1.64	D 1-1
vs Supra	51%	8.09	1.12	W 1-0

Look at that possession range. 36% against Ottawa. 64% against Forge. Same team. Completely different approach based on the opponent.

The Ottawa match — counter-attacking masterclass

Against the defending champions Cavalry sat deep deliberately. PPDA of 24.76 — the highest of any CPL team in any match this season — means they basically invited Ottawa to have the ball. Ottawa obliged with 64% possession. Cavalry absorbed it, hit on the counter and scored 3.

2.10 xG from 36% possession. That's elite counter-attacking efficiency. Warschewski and Musse were devastating in the space Ottawa left behind.

The Forge match — completely different game

Against Forge, Cavalry flipped the script entirely. 64% possession, PPDA 8.88 — they pressed aggressively and tried to control the game. The result was a 0-0 draw with only 0.47 xG. Forge's defensive structure neutralised everything.

The tactical flexibility to go from 36% possession to 64% possession in back to back matches is not something most CPL teams can do. That's coaching quality from Tommy Wheeldon Jr.

The defensive improvement is real

This is the stat that stands out most. Defensive duels won percentage across the season:

58.6% → 58.7% → 64.0% → 66.7% → 65.8%

They are getting more defensively disciplined every single game. That upward trend over 5 matches suggests a team that is cohesive, organised and improving as the season goes on. For context Pacific FC's defensive duels won percentage has been declining. Cavalry's is going the opposite direction.

Only 3 goals conceded in 5 matches. Two clean sheets. Against Forge — arguably the best attacking team in CPL — they kept a clean sheet comfortably.

The xG story — efficient but not dominant

Cavalry's xG numbers are solid but not spectacular — 2.55, 2.10, 0.47, 1.64, 1.12. They're not blowing teams away with chance creation. They're winning through organisation, adaptability and taking their chances when they come.

Warschewski's 2 goals from 2.26 xG — almost perfectly on xG. Clinical but not lucky. Musse with 1 goal from 0.78 xG — slightly overperforming. Klomp with 2 goals from 0.83 xG — a centre back scoring twice from set pieces, that's a massive bonus.

What makes them dangerous going forward

The consistent 4-2-3-1 system gives them a clear structure but the PPDA and possession data shows the coaches are willing to adapt the intensity and style based on opponent. That's a team with a clear identity AND tactical flexibility. The combination is rare in CPL.

The defensive duels trend suggests they peak later in the season — a team getting better as the weeks go on is exactly what you want heading into the playoffs.

The question the data raises

Can they keep this up against the top teams? The Forge draw showed their ceiling when pressed — 0.47 xG is low. If they face Forge again in a must-win situation, can they create enough? Warschewski at 28 and Musse in form are crucial — any injury to either changes the equation completely.

Cavalry aren't the most exciting team to watch. But the data says they're the smartest team in CPL 2026 right now.

What do you think — can they sustain this over a full 28-game season? And does Wheeldon Jr deserve more credit than he gets?

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Ottawa won the CPL championship four months ago. Right now they sit 4th with 7 points from 6 games and a -5 goal difference.

The instinct is to say they're just in bad form. The data says it's more structural than that.

The possession paradox

Ottawa's average possession in 2026 CPL matches: 62.5%. That's the highest in the league by a significant margin. They're dominating the ball. Yet they've conceded 10 goals in 5 matches.

Compare that to Forge — 48% average possession, 1 goal conceded in 6 games.

More possession is supposed to mean fewer chances against. For Ottawa it clearly isn't working that way.

Why — the interceptions tell the story

When Ottawa lose the ball they're not winning it back quickly enough. Their interceptions per game this season: 20, 18, 40, 30, 34. That 20 and 18 in their first two matches — both losses — are the lowest numbers in CPL 2026.

Forge by comparison: 41, 40, 16, 44, 36, 36. Their outlier is the 16 against Cavalry — the only game they drew.

When a team has 62% possession it means they lose the ball in advanced positions frequently. The danger isn't losing the ball — it's what happens next. Ottawa aren't recovering quickly enough when they do.

The PPDA problem

Ottawa's PPDA has been inconsistent: 8.48, 12.33, 10.38, 12.11, 13.95. That 13.95 against Inter Toronto — the 4-1 loss — is alarming. They barely pressed at all and conceded four.

Forge have been more consistent: 12.95, 8.17, 20.50, 8.70, 10.34, 9.63. Their worst PPDA was the Cavalry draw — again, the one game they didn't win.

The worst result explained by data

Ottawa vs Inter Toronto 1-4. Ottawa had 51% possession — their lowest of the season. 0 shots on target before conceding. 34 interceptions — their second worst. PPDA 13.95 — their worst of the season.

Everything broke down at once. Low possession, low pressing intensity, low ball recovery. Inter Toronto capitalised.

What needs to change

Ottawa's system under Diego Mejía is built on possession and pressing. When both work together — as they did in 2025 — they're the best team in CPL. The data shows the pressing has become inconsistent and when it drops, the high defensive line that comes with a possession system leaves them exposed on the break.

The question isn't whether Ottawa are a good team. They clearly are. The question is whether the system can reset before the gap to Forge becomes unmanageable.

Right now Forge are 9 points ahead.

They play each other on May 24.

What do you think is the root cause — personnel, fatigue from CONCACAF, or a tactical problem that needs addressing?

r/CanadianPL r/ForgeFC r/AtleticoOttawa

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FC Supra didn't exist 8 months ago. They played their first ever professional match on April 12. They've already beaten the defending champions' conquerors (Ottawa lost to them too — wait, Ottawa beat Supra). Let me be precise — they beat Pacific and HFX, lost to Ottawa, Cavalry and Forge.

But the data from those 5 matches reveals a tactical identity that's already fully formed. Here's the complete breakdown.

Formation — they're still experimenting

Match	Formation	Result
vs Pacific	4-4-2	W 3-2
vs Ottawa	4-2-3-1	L 0-1
vs HFX	4-2-3-1	W 2-1
vs Cavalry	4-4-2	L 0-1
vs Forge	3-5-2	L 0-1

Razzaghi hasn't used the same XI twice. Against Forge he tried a 3-5-2 — the most ambitious tactical shift — and it produced their worst attacking output (0.68 xG, 5 shots, 6 touches in the box).

The xG story — they create but can't finish

Match	xG	Goals	On target	Avg shot dist
vs Pacific	2.51	3	9/16	15.8m
vs Ottawa	1.68	0	10/18	18.0m
vs HFX	1.14	2	5/16	19.7m
vs Cavalry	0.35	0	1/8	20.3m
vs Forge	0.68	0	1/5	24.2m

The average shot distance tells a fascinating story. Against Pacific — 15.8m, close to goal, high quality chances. Against Forge — 24.2m, shooting from distance, desperate. The better the opposition the further from goal Supra are shooting from.

Their conversion is also erratic. Against Ottawa they created 1.68 xG — 10 shots on target — and scored zero. That's the unluckiest result of their season. By xG they deserved at least a point.

Touches in the penalty box — the clearest indicator

This is the metric that best explains Supra's results:

• vs Pacific: 22 box touches — W
• vs Ottawa: 33 box touches — L (unlucky)
• vs HFX: 31 box touches — W
• vs Cavalry: 15 box touches — L
• vs Forge: 6 box touches — L

Against Cavalry and Forge — the two most organised defensive teams in CPL — Supra barely got into the box. 6 touches against Forge is almost nothing. Forge's defensive shape completely suffocated them.

Pressing — their best weapon but inconsistently applied

PPDA and interceptions reveal when Supra's press works:

• vs Pacific: PPDA 13.55, 54 interceptions — won the ball constantly
• vs Ottawa: PPDA 10.98, 35 interceptions — pressed harder but fewer recoveries
• vs HFX: PPDA 11.48, 47 interceptions — balanced, won
• vs Cavalry: PPDA 8.71, 42 interceptions — most aggressive press of season, still lost
• vs Forge: PPDA 11.74, 47 interceptions — solid press, Forge still created 16 shots against

The Cavalry match is the most interesting defensively. Supra pressed harder than any other match (PPDA 8.71) yet still conceded and barely created anything. Cavalry absorbed the press completely and punished them on the counter with just 10 shots, 4 on target, 1 goal.

Defensive shape — better than you'd expect from a new club

Supra's defensive duels won percentage: 53%, 68%, 68%, 69%, 62%. Consistently solid. For a brand new club with no shared history these are respectable numbers.

Their vulnerability is shots against — 13 against Pacific, 16 against Forge. When the press breaks down they face a lot of attempts.

The verdict — who are FC Supra?

They're a direct, counter-pressing team that needs space to operate. Against teams that allow them to press and counter — Pacific, HFX — they're dangerous and clinical. Against teams that absorb pressure and play structured football — Cavalry, Forge — they struggle to create and lose.

Their xG says they've been slightly unlucky (Ottawa game especially). Their shot distance data says they're being pushed further from goal by better opponents. Their box touch data says better teams are keeping them out of dangerous areas completely.

The biggest tactical problem: Razzaghi is still searching for the right formation. The 3-5-2 against Forge was a gamble that didn't pay off. The 4-2-3-1 looks like their most natural shape.

They have 5 matches left before the halfway point. The question is whether they can unlock their attacking game against top half opposition — or whether their ceiling is beating the bottom half teams.

What do you think Supra need to fix most — finishing, creation against organised defences, or defensive stability?

Charts and analysis by u/TheDataMaple — Canadian football told through data.

r/FCSupra