What data says about Jewish safety in Canada
i’m writing this because i really want my jewish friends and neighbours to have better information and feel safer. or at least as safe as they should feel.
i am not in anyway denying the overwhelming evidence that antisemitism is on the rise in canada and around the world
but i want to undo some misleading information since canadaland has spread a lot of fear by using bad statistics, the number Jesse made about jews being 9x more at risk of hate crimes in canada than the usa is is wrong and jesse also republished a stat that antisemitic incidents had increased by 670% between october 2023 and october 2024 in quebec, which was published by pos media like nypost and epoch times, but was debunked long ago.
this just feels especially relevant as jesse continues to publish information out of context.
i spent part of my afternoon running numbers. frankly, my job is in ai and sucks, so this felt like a more useful use of my time ¯_(ツ)_/¯
this is long. but i hope you think it is worth the read.
THE PROBLEM WITH JESSE'S 9X'S MORE AT RISK
the “9x more at risk than the usa” statistic that jesse spread has travelled fast and widely, i see it quoted int the usa now and few media have fact checked it, but I can show jews are really not more at risk in canada that the us or anywhere else.
i want to just say i believe jesse thought he was right at first. sadly, jesse refused to admit his mistake when it was explained to him.
people are still understandably confused by all the arguments around this number, so first here is the plain-language version of why it is wrong, next i will look at some better comparasons.
both countries collect hate-crime data from police agencies. That is what jesse used and police data is a good source. he did not use info collected by advocacy groups as some people think.
despite it being good data, biggest problem with it is the two data sets are not equally complete, therefor not equally accurate.
canada’s police recorded hate-crime data cover basically the whole country. the usa's don’t.
that is not a tiny technicality. it is like comparing a whole pie with a pie missing a slice
in other words police in canada recorded every single incident (over 99%), while 2,909 police agencies in the usa did not collect anything. The usa completion rate is (95.1%)
that may not sound like a huge gap, but it matters. the usa left 16.8 million people who might have experienced hate crimes out of the data and we don't know how many are jewish.
when someone (jesse) takes the fbi’s partial crime count and divides it by the entire jewish population of the united states, the u.s. rate is going to look lower than it really is, and also lower than canada which has more complete data
that is not just a problem for anti-jewish hate crimes. all hate crimes in canada will appear higher than the usa because canada hs the whole pie and the usa has a sizeable slice of data missing.
CANADA VS THE USA AND HATE CRIMES - A BETTER WAY
proportionally, reported anti-jewish hate crimes rose in both countries from 2020 to 2024, which is very awful.
we can more accurately compare the rate at which hate crimes are rising.
when we do that, it shows the increase in hate crimes against jews was actually slightly larger in the u.s.a than in canada.
increase in hate crimes against jews in canada 2020-24.
| Year | Police-reported hate crimes targeting Jewish people | Change from previous year |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 331 | — |
| 2021 | 492 | +161 / +49% |
| 2022 | 527 | +35 / +7% |
| 2023 | 959 | +432 / +82% |
| 2024 | 920 | -39 / -4% |
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250722/t006a-eng.htm
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260330/t001a-eng.htm
increase in hate crimes against jews in usa 2020-24
| Year | FBI-reported anti-Jewish incidents | Change from previous year |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 683 | — |
| 2021 | 817 | +134 / +19.6% |
| 2022 | 1,122 | +305 / +37.3% |
| 2023 | 1,832 | +710 / +63.3% |
| 2024 | 1,938 | +106 / +5.8% |
https://www.justice.gov/archives/crs/highlights/2020-hate-crimes-statistics
https://www.fbi.gov/news/press-releases/fbi-releases-supplemental-2021-hate-crime-statistics
https://www.justice.gov/archives/crs/highlights/2022-hate-crime-statistics
https://www.justice.gov/crs/news/2023-hate-crime-statistics
https://www.fbi.gov/news/press-releases/fbi-releases-2024-reported-crimes-in-the-nation-statistics
https://hrc-prod-requests.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/images/Reported-Crimes-in-the-Nation-Quick-Stats.pdf
IMPORTANT TAKEAWAYS:
- canada had a slight decline in antisemitic hate incidents from 2023 to 2024, but the usa continued to rise through 2024.
- in canada, the rise of antisemitic hate crimes since 2020 is 178%.
- in the usa antisemitic hate crimes rose by 184% for the same time period.
- that is as apples-to-apples as we can get with available data,
- it shows canada proportionally has less of a rise in police reported antisemitic hate crimes than the usa
CANADA VS OTHER COUNTRIES
i get that jesse thought he was helping. it was at least initially an honest mistake.
problem #1 was coverage: canada’s data cover nearly the whole country, while the fbi’s leave out a chunk of the u.s.a
problem #2 is that canada and the usa do not define, collect or report hate crimes in exactly the same way.
so i looked at a few other countries where i could find complete police reported data, a reasonable jewish-population estimate. this fixes problem #1: missing data.
it does not fix problem #2: countries still do not define, collect or report hate crimes in exactly the same way.
so it is still imperfect, but the best we can do.
the conclusion: canada is comparatively safer than the other countries in this table.
Recorded anti-Jewish hate crimes relative to population
| Country | Recorded incidents | Jewish population used | Rate per 100,000 Jews | Times Canada’s rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 6,236 | 125,000 | 4,989 | 24.62× |
| Norway | 32 | 1,300 | 2,462 | 12.15× |
| Sweden | 175 | 15,000 | 1,167 | 5.76× |
| England and Wales* | 2,326 | 287,360 | 809 | 3.99× |
| Poland | 56 | 9,600 | 583 | 2.88× |
| France | 1,570 | 440,000 | 357 | 1.76× |
| Canada | 920 | 453,980 | 203 | — |
WHAT WE LEARNED
there has been a rise in antisemitism in almost every country, including canada.
but jesse miscalculated the risk to jews in canada compared to the usa and that created more fear than necessary when he did not correct it and it spread all over the internet.
truth: since 2020, canada’s reported anti-jewish hate-crimes (178%) has risen less sharply than the u.s.a. (184%). this is still an unacceptable increase, but it is not less safe to be in canada.
canada is still safer for jews than many other countries, based on the best available data
i am not telling anyone how to feel. i just want people to have the most accurate information possible.
i hope this helped.
SOURCES
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260330/t001a-eng.htm
https://cjs.journals.yorku.ca/index.php/cjs/article/download/40398/36652/50106
https://www.bka.de/DE/UnsereAufgaben/Deliktsbereiche/PMK/PMKZahlen2024/PMKZahlen2024.html
https://hatecrime.osce.org/reporting/norway/2024
https://hatecrime.osce.org/reporting/sweden/2024
https://hatecrime.osce.org/reporting/poland/2024
https://www.crif.org/ressources/rapports/rapport-annuel-du-spcj-les-chiffres-de-lantisemitisme-en-france-en-2024/
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/culturalidentity/religion/articles/jewishidentityenglandandwales/census2021
https://www.cbs.gov.il/he/Documents/World%20DellaPergola%202024%20complete.pdf
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/hate-crime-england-and-wales-year-ending-march-2024/hate-crime-england-and-wales-year-ending-march-2024
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/hate-crime-england-and-wales-year-ending-march-2025/hate-crime-england-and-wales-year-ending-march-2025
METHODOLOGY
i compiled annual anti-jewish incident totals from national police, statistical-agency and official reporting systems, along with jewish-population denominators from census data or demographic estimates.
i entered the source figures into a simple python table and used python to calculate:
- annual percentage change: (current year − previous year) ÷ previous year × 100
- rate per 100,000 jewish people: reported incidents ÷ jewish population × 100,000
- each country’s rate relative to canada: country rate ÷ canada rate
- calculations were performed using the underlying figures before rounding. rates and percentage changes shown in the table are rounded for readability.
- python was used only to carry out the arithmetic consistently and reproduce the table. it did not determine which incidents counted as hate crimes or generate the underlying data. those definitions come from the agencies and systems that published each country’s figures.
- these are not perfectly harmonized international crime statistics. most figures are police-recorded or police-classified hate-crime data, but poland’s figure counts police investigations opened and france’s counts reported antisemitic acts compiled from interior ministry and community-security reporting. the results therefore compare reported rates within each system, not a fully standardized measure of actual antisemitic incidents.
POP STATS
- england and wales — 287,360: this is a 2021 census-derived “jewish identity” count. it includes people who identified as jewish through the religion question, the ethnic-group question, or both.
- canada — 453,980: this is a census-derived total jewish population figure based on the 2021 canadian census, rather than an outside demographic estimate. it combines people who reported jewish religion, people who reported jewish cultural or ethnic identity but no religion, and people who reported jewish cultural or ethnic identity alongside another religion. it is broader than the 335,295 who reported judaism as their religion alone.
- france — 440,000; germany — 125,000; sweden — 15,000; poland — 9,600; norway — 1,300: these are rounded versions of the 2024 core jewish population estimates produced by jewish demographer sergio dellapergola for the annual world jewish population study.
- “core jewish population” means people who would explicitly identify themselves as jewish. it is narrower than ancestry, people with one jewish parent who do not identify as jewish, non-jewish household members, or everyone eligible under israel’s law of return.
- the country estimates draw on the best available mix of census data where available, community-registration records, surveys, demographic trends and migration data. they are estimates, not national census totals.
DATA NOTES
- the incident totals are not a perfectly harmonized international crime measure.
- canada, england and wales, germany, sweden and norway use police-recorded or police-classified crime data.
- poland’s figure is the number of police investigations opened.
- france’s figure of 1,570 is a count of antisemitic complaints and incidents compiled from interior ministry data and community-security reporting. it is not directly equivalent to a standard police hate-crime series.
- england-and-wales home office release reports 2,873 anti-jewish religious hate crimes for the year ending march 2025. using that figure would produce a rate of about 1,000 per 100,000 jewish people, or 4.93 times canada’s rate.
LIMITATIONS
- these incident totals are not a perfectly harmonized international crime measure.
- canada, england and wales, germany, sweden and norway use police-recorded or police-classified crime data.
- poland’s figure is the number of police investigations opened.
- france’s figure of 1,570 is a count of antisemitic complaints and incidents compiled from interior ministry data and community-security reporting. it is not directly equivalent to a standard police hate-crime series.
- the current home office annual release reports 2,873 anti-jewish religious hate crimes for the year ending march 2025. using that figure would produce a rate of about 1,000 per 100,000 jewish people, or 4.93 times canada’s rate.
