cmv: AI will replace most jobs not because it's brilliant, but because the average human is shockingly easy to outperform
I was talking to someone about jobs AI could never do, and I gave a shepherd as an example. But then we stopped and thought: why couldn't you mount a camera and an automatic weapon on a drone? After all, I have cameras in my yard that can recognize animals. The counterargument, however, was: "What happens if it shoots your dog instead of the bear, or worse, a person?"
That really got me thinking. What actually happens? Killing a person is terrible. But then I started analyzing the problem objectively. How many people haven't accidentally killed other people? It happens all the time, out hunting, or at home (you keep a gun in the house, someone is on your property, they are drunk and do not respond, so you fire).
Here is the point: AI does not need to be an absolute genius. It does not need to be AGI capable of doing anything and answering every question. It does not need to perform miracles. It does not need to never make a mistake. On average, it just needs to do these things better than 50% of the population. And to be completely honest with you, doing things better than 50% of the population is extremely easy.
Think about the average person and how much nonsense they do, think, believe, and practice. AI is already better than the bottom 50% of people. It certainly makes mistakes far less often than 50% of people. Just think about the sheer amount of nonsense the average person talks every single hour, and compare that to the nonsense AI spews. It does not even compare! Not even close, a human will talk absolute, outrageous nonsense across every field imaginable. AI has its moments where it derails too, but, and this is a massive but, it is infinitely better than the median person.
We're holding AI to the standard of a flawless god, while the people it's replacing are barely functioning above baseline incompetence. Change my view.