Testing results on instant commits
I got curious and bored and decided to do a bunch of testing, many hours worth, and came up with some answers on instant recruits. Biggest takeaways below…
Instant commits are way more rare this year without the Dream School perk. In the two past versions of the game, you could get a 5-star to instant commit about 5 percent of the time assuming you are the recruit’s top choice. It happens far less often this year.
Higher star recruits are less likely to instant commit. I didn’t keep exact stats, but 4-star recruits still seem to commit about 5 percent of the time. But 5-star recruits are far less likely. More like 1 percent.
The Dream School perk is worth it this year. You’ll get an instant commit about 10 percent of the time. Even 5-star recruits are far more likely to commit.
NIL doesn’t seem to matter. Offering max NIL doesn’t seem to make a difference. I didn’t try low-balling high level recruits, but offering the default NIL didn’t appear to lower chances at an instant commit.
Important to note that, at least in Week 0, the commit screen doesn’t come up when you succeed. You have to tab back over from the recruiting actions options to the overview for the recruit to see if it worked. I spent hours doing this thinking it was impossible this year before I realized the commit screen just wasn’t coming up.