u/RF9999

I'm almost done my first read (or listen through) the First Law books and wanted to write some thoughts on the (excellent) penultimate book, given that the original trilogy contains one of the best twists I can think of in the third book (and I want to speculate), and also because there's an interesting 'what if' I want to examine. I think this book was much stronger than the previous one, but it's hard not to appreciate all the setting up A Little Hatred did. No spoilers for The Wisdom of Crowds please!

1. What if Brock had won? This is the scenario I'm most interested in- I think it's pretty clear that the Union is on its last legs, and I think there's no chance of the Union under Brock meeting the crises facing Orso. I think it's very interesting that there has not been a capitalist or bourgeois revolution in the Union, given that the government is largely controlled by the Crown (of which the Closed Council is just representative). Brock's rebellion was doomed (and caused) by the financial crisis in the Union- the rebelling aristocracy would have no way to resolve that crisis without abandoning their various rights and privileges, which they never would have done. I guess the equivalent of the Jacobins in the Union is the Solar Society, which seems politically unmotivated for some reason
2. What will be the fate of Orso's faction? I was guessing that a full workers rebellion was going to occur in book 3 but JA beat me to it in the very last chapter of this book. Oh well. I think the Union is doomed as it stands, with or without the Breakers. From what is said about Risinau's lectures etc, the Breakers and Burners haven't developed much of the political theory that appeared in our world in the late 19th century, so it seems like their revolution is categorically unable to achieve a communist society or anything of that sort. Maybe they'll afford the bourgeois revolution that the Union so obviously needs to not collapse completely.
3. Rikke's prophesy that 'I saw a wolf eat the sun. Then a lion ate the wolf. Then a lamb ate the lion. Then an owl ate the lamb' is pretty clear at this point. The lamb is obviously Orso, and presumably the owl is Rikke herself. How in the circle of the world the North could manage a war with the Union at this point is a bit of a mystery. Guess I'll have to keep reading! Either way, it seems Orso is going to lose big time in the final book, although 'ate' in the context of the prophecy has not meant 'killed' in any of the events that have actually occurred. Hopefully my boy pulls through, maybe not as a king though.
4. What the hell has Bayaz even been doing in this book? Why is Valint and Balk deliberately trying to bankrupt the Union? Seems like his centuries of hard work are about to blow up in his face. It is kinda funny that Bayaz' interference in the structure of the Union and its technology is inadvertently pulling it over the edge
5. Joe's characterisation is in full force in this book. Throughout the back half I was thinking I cannot wait to see Brock and Stour Nightfall get strung up, but when they finally get what's coming to them, there's nothing satisfying about it. Particularly Brock on the scaffold is quite an affecting scene, and I fully expected him to die in one of the saddest scenes in the entire series. There's also some subtle work with Savine- she's not as intelligent as she thinks or we were initially lead to believe. She's fooled quite soundly by Vick, gets pulled into Leo's world and stupid plans without a second thought, even does some stupid things on the way to the climactic battle. She's foolish in a much less obvious way than Leo, which is a great contrast