u/Recognition_Tricky

This is not a post criticizing Schlittler, who has been incredible from the moment he was called up and the ace of the staff this year. But there is a mildly concerning downward trend in his velocity recently which impacted his last start, when he gave up 5 runs in 4 1/3 innings pitched against Cleveland.

Pitchers' velocities are never stagnant during a season, so a downward dip isn't necessarily cause for alarm. That said, I think the Yankees should be cautious.

Bad defense notwithstanding, there was an unusual amount of hard contact against Schlittler, especially against his cutter. He never threw above 98 mph and that was his average 4-seam fastball velocity in his first 12 starts. The cutter is usually around 94 mph. This is a guy who throws 3 different fastballs 90% of the time, so it's essential his velocity is elite in order for him to be effective.

Last year, Schlittler threw 53 innings in AA, 23 2/3 innings in AAA, 76 1/3 innings in the majors during the regular season, and 14 1/3 innings during the postseason for a combined 167 innings pitched. That's about 50 more innings than he threw in 2024, all in the minors.

Schlittler has pitched 76 1/3 innings so far this year, all in the majors. Boone has had Schlittler go up to 106 pitches in two starts as well.

All this is to say the Yankees should take advantage of rainouts like tonight's and any off-days to get Schlittler an extra day of rest when they can. This helps achieve two goals: keeping Schlittler elite for this season into October and keeping him healthy for the long-term.

There's no guarantees, pitchers obviously get hurt all the time even if they're handled with care. But the smart move is to do everything you can to protect that right arm and hope it works out. The ultimate goal is to see Schlittler throwing gas this October and one day, a long time from now, see his number retired and join the other Yankee greats in Monument Park.

In short, I'd have Warren start tomorrow and use Schlittler on Monday against Cleveland with an extra day of rest.

Credit to Mike Axisa for the graph of Schlitter's velocity.