u/Regular_Tie2507

Okay, okay, I get it, not what you guys wanna hear, but please save the pitchforks for after I've made my point. If you hear me out and still disagree, then cool, but please listen first.

Arber Xhekaj may be a fan favorite, and even I quite love to see him in the lineup, however we should not view him as exempt from trade talks. To clarify, I do not think he is a bad player, I simply don't see him as irreplaceable. This is due to a few reasons, but the most important are his penalty minutes, his defensive production, his offensive production, and how that compares to other defenders.

Onto the big one first, Xhekaj recorded 116 penalty minutes in 65 games played in the regular season. To put that into perspective, the next highest record for PIM is Josh Anderson, with 90 PIM in 72 games. This means Xhekaj averaged 1.78 PIM per game played, while Anderson averaged 1.25. While that difference seems relatively small, this becomes a bigger issue when we take into account the fact that Anderson brings far more consistent and reliable production. Additionally, only 23 of those penalty minutes were called while Xhekaj was playing 5v5. Since Xhekaj doesn't play on the power play or penalty kill, this means that 80% of Xhekaj's total penalty minutes were a result of an altercation that occured after play was already stopped. Standing up for your teammates after the whistle is blown is one thing, but 93 penalty minutes alone ties him for 14th most penalty minutes in the league. That is not a number that can be justified by "standing up for the team," that is a number that shows lack of discipline. Toughness is an important trait for the team, and I agree that an enforcer type player is certainly needed on this team, but Xhekaj's reckless behavior completely negates the threat of a massive enforcer since he's in the box constantly.

Now, onto offensive production, let's take Josh Anderson for example once again. Josh Anderson recorded 23 points (14 goals, 9 assists) this season, whereas Xhekaj recorded a career low 4 points (1 goal, 3 assists). It should also be mentioned that Xhekaj played 65 games this season, which is the 2nd highest number of games he has played in an NHL season. Over his 4 NHL seasons, his offensive production has been at a decline, as he recorded 13 points in 51 games in his first NHL season, 10 points in 44 games in his second, 6 points in 70 games his third, and now his record low of 4 points in 65 games. He quite literally scored less than a third of the points of his first NHL season, while playing 16 more games. While offensive production isn't the most important thing for a enforcer type defender like Xhekaj, the decline we've seen is definitely problematic, and it's almost a waste of potential since Xhekaj's slapshot is notably incredibly fast and powerful.

Now, the most important metric for a defensive defenseman is their defensive metrics. Well, looking at his xGA/60 (expected goals against per 60 minutes), he puts himself at 2.57, which is solid and a bit above average in the league. The issue with this is that it is misleading, as Xhekaj is a bottom pair defenseman, which means he is naturally insulated from opponents' top lines and regularly plays against depth in the bottom 6 instead. This actually inflates his defensive compared to other defenseman who play against top lines. Overall, this doesn't mean he is bad defensively, it just means he is replaceable if the situation comes that he needs to be replaced.

Xhekaj has potential to be a really solid bottom pair defenseman and enforcer, however, his production over 4 years has been on the decline, and he has continued to take unnecessary penalties that have cost us games. While I agree that making the team tougher would be beneficial, I don't think that Xhekaj is this invaluable asset the team as the benefit of having a competent fighter is outweighed by the fact that players have learned they can agitate him to draw a penalty. It will additionally be difficult for Xhekaj to maintain a permanent roster spot given that we will soon have more competition on the blue line.

TLDR: love Xhekaj, objectively not good enough to be exempt from trade talks. If we keep him, we keep him. If we don't, that's not necessarily a bad thing.

[ Removed by Reddit on account of violating the content policy. ]

His contract is coming up going into the offseason and Marty clearly has had some issues with him, likely due to him taking a lot of penalties in the playoffs (the Sam Carrick thing being a big highlight). He was a healthy scratch going into the ECF and with Reinbacher possibly coming in next season, it's entirely possible he gets pushed back as a 7th string D man. Do we think he gets resigned?

Edit: accidentally created a warzone lol