Help me understand Bull thesis
I hold BB and like the QNX story, but at ~$9.70 the market is already paying roughly 14–15x sales for QNX alone (if you value Secure Comms at ~2–3x). Even if QNX grows 30% a year to ~$1.2B by FY32, I get roughly $18–25 a share depending on the exit multiple. Good, but not the 5–10x some posts imply. Genuinely want to hear where my numbers are wrong.
Three things I can't resolve:
Backlog vs revenue. QNX revenue is growing ~27%, but the royalty backlog has gone from ~$940M (FY26) to ~$950M now. Isn't that mostly conversion of old wins rather than new ones? What evidence do you see that bookings are growing faster than revenue?
Robotics: engagements vs contracts. Management says they're working with 20+ companies on Nvidia-based platforms (humanoids, surgical robots, AMRs, drones). Has anyone seen a named robotics design win with royalty backlog attached, like Coretura was for Alloy Kore? What royalty per robot is realistic, and when do volumes matter if humanoids don't scale until the 2030s?
Secure Comms. Some argue it's QNX's security backbone and deserves a QNX-like multiple. But it's sold to governments separately, ARR is flat (~$221M), net retention is 91% and guidance was just cut. Is there any real cross-selling into QNX deals, or is it a separate business?
Bonus: who actually beats QNX in robotics — Linux/ROS stacks, Green Hills, or Nvidia's own software? If QNX wins there, why?
Simply curious to understand more so I can upgrade my conviction
Cheers