Thoughts on Matas Buzelis?
Hey guys, starting to do some deep-dives on interesting players from last season to get a feel for where they sit next season. I was big on Matas Buzelis coming into this season but not high enough to draft in most places. That worked out until his minutes jumped in the back half of the season as the Bulls tanked and he put up impressive numbers.
Welcome any feedback on how I'm structuring these, other views you're interested in, or players you'd like to see.
You can see the charts I reference below here: https://imgur.com/a/1YjhJqb
Last Season
The second half improvement plays out in his numbers. His Z score climbs from ~2 in the first half of the season (pre Feb 13) to 4.3 the rest of the season driven by increases in points, rebounds, steals and 3s. (Chart 1)
His points per game jumped from 15 to 20 off the back of increased volume and only subtle changes in overall percentages. (Chart 2)
However, jumping under the hood shows a significant change in his shot diet with fewer shots in the restricted area (40% of total to 27%) and an increase in above the break 3s (33% to 47%). This is pretty common to see as usage increases, still, 47% is a massive number. (Chart 3)
One slight concern, he hit 51% of his corner 3s in the second half of the season, up from 35% in the first half. That number will probably come back a bit. However, it was only 11% of his shots and unlikely to massively shift his overall value. (Chart 3)
A lot of his value comes from his elite block rate, particularly for a SF-eligible player. This held up under increased minutes and usage in the second half of the season (1.6p/g), which is encouraging. In fact, his block rate was amazingly stable over the course of the year. As always, we need to be careful with players who derive a lot of value from high variance defensive stats, particularly younger players taking on increased roles. (Chart 4)
I'm encouraged by his FT% trend. He was 81% in his first season but fell to 78% this season. That number did trend upwards after a slow start. There's reason to be optimistic that he can be back above 80% next year. (Chart 7)
Outlook
Bumping his minutes up to 32p/g and his usage up to 25% would make him around a top 50 player, before we account for any performance improvements. The Bulls will be adding a significant rookie piece in the off-season, and have a new front office who will make other adjustments. Given how they've featured Buzelis so far, and the dearth of available talent on the roster I think it's safe to say he'll be a part of next season. (Chart 5)
Given he's still 21, his size and statistical profile, we can feel good about projecting performance improvements into next season. (Chart 6)