Is sub 2:50 marathon achievable?
Hey everyone — looking for some honest feedback/advice on whether sub-2:50 at the Beantown Marathon (Sept 6) is realistic for me.
That puts the race about ~15 weeks out for me right now.
Some background:
Age 24, Male
Ran 2:57 at Chicago Marathon in 2025
Ran 3:03 at New York City Marathon in 2025
Ran 2:57 at Boston Marathon in 2026
I honestly think my Boston time may have been a bit faster than my actual fitness at the time due to race-day factors (weather/wind/course conditions), but I did close the last 4 miles at ~6:30 pace which gives me some confidence there’s more there
This past Sunday I ran the Sugarloaf Marathon trying to chase 2:50 and had a hard time making it up the hill at mile 8 slowed down then blew up around mile 16, finishing in 3:04 on a warm sunny day (~65 degrees/full sun)
Course info for Beantown:
6 loops of ~4.3 miles
relatively flat overall
~500 ft gain / ~500 ft loss total
so basically a rolling but fast loop course
Past Training:
Training-wise I’ve mostly been around 50–70 MPW, and I’m starting to think I respond better to higher mileage and more aerobic-focused training rather than pushing intensity too early.
For Beantown I’m considering:
- building gradually toward higher consistent mileage (70–80 MPW if healthy)
- one threshold session per week
- one VO2/economy session per week
- long run every week, with more marathon-specific work later in the cycle
- I feel like the fitness is close, but I need to actually become durable enough to hold pace deep into the race.
Do you think sub-2:50 is realistic off a proper uninterrupted build?
Or is the jump from 2:57 → sub-2:50 bigger than I’m giving it credit for?
Would really appreciate honest feedback from anyone who’s made a similar jump.