This wallet loaded over $1,000,000 on no Iran x US deal by the end of the year
He is positioned for no return to normal traffic in Hormuz and no nuclear deal
Potential payout: $1,400,000+
Just months ago, markets saw an 80%+ chance of the Clarity Act being signed into law.
Crypto needs a new catalyst.
From around -$500 to $64K PnL
This trader clearly has strong expertise in politics and economics
And these are exactly the niches where real knowledge can turn into serious edge
I found him through PredictParity Terminal
its strategy:
> scans markets for prices that don't match the real odds
> ignores who wins, only checks if the number is wrong
> fires the second it finds a gap
> takes a few cents of edge and exits
> repeats it 32,614 times
look at what it actually traded:
Bitcoin up or down, 5 min -> Up at 74c -> +$54,460
Bitcoin up or down, 15 min -> Up at 78.6c -> +$41,741
Counter-Strike, BIG vs B8 -> B8 at 50c -> +$50,000
the first two resolve in minutes. the bet opens and closes before you've finished reading it
a few cents per trade sounds like nothing. 32,614 times it's a million dollars
why nobody else does this:
its boring, no stories to tell at dinner
just buying what is priced wrong and closing it out
it doesn't predict anything. it just counts better than the crowd
the edge was never picking winners. it's noticing what's priced wrong
Eizenkot is currently trading at twice the odds of Bibi to form the next government.
you bought at 4.4% odds (it’s 2% now, but that doesn’t bother you)
and if you’re right - those shares will pay out $500,000
if you’re wrong… well, apparently Jesus is taking his time
It’s called the Poisson model
And it's about pricing the match better than the market
You take expected goals for both teams and turn them into probabilities
> Match winner, Over / Under 2.5, BTTS , Correct score
Everything comes from the same numbers
For example, you can feed an LLM:
> recent goals scored and conceded
> home / away splits
> league average goals
> injuries or lineup news
And ask it to calculate expected goals for both teams
Then compare the result with the live Polymarket price
That gap is the trade
If your model gives Over 2.5 around 58%
But Polymarket prices it at 50%
That’s where it gets interesting
Find the gap and trade only when the price makes sense
At the moment, Saylor is selling BTC to fund the cash reserve (almost $5b now). When Bitcoin goes up, $STRC probably goes up with it. Will BTC go up? Yes, but I think closer to year-end, eg. October and the rest of Q4. I doubt STRC will repeg before Sept 30th. In general it should be more selling pressure the closer we get to $100.
So yes, it will re-peg. But not before Sept 30th.
Right now Elon has 152 tweets for the period "August 4 - August 11, 2026"
That’s around 26 tweets per day so far
There are still about 26 hours left until resolution
And I think the most likely final range is somewhere between 160 and 199 tweets
So I’m looking at buying the same amount of shares on:
> 160-179 Yes and 180-199 Yes (together around 89¢)
That’s around +12% profit
I might also add a small hedge on the market below 160 tweets
DYOR
Just days ago, markets saw at 70%+ chance of a September rate hike.
Gold prices are surging above $4,400/oz on the news.