u/Same_Slice_7809

I wanna make this clear, This post isn't about what you want, or what you think is the best thing for the team. When the time comes and it's deadline day. Are the Jays going to buy or sell?

In my honest opinion. I think they are gonna buy, but I don't even feel good about that being a possibilty. This team is shit, and everything says to sell, get some good packages for the UFA's, improve the already good farm and see what the rookies can do for the 2nd half of the season.

HOWEVER, because the AL is so incredibly shit, the Jays despite being 6 games back of 500 are only 4 games back of postseason, and what a coincidence. Our next series is the Giants which are even worse then us AND have super bad pitching. If the Jays win that series, or even sweep. That puts them at 1-2 games back of wildcard and as long as the Jays are close to playoffs, I think they will buy. Doesn't even matter if they scrape through.

They just came off a world series appearance, the FO has spent way too much money on this team to easily give up, the fan interest is still at an all time high despite how the season has gone. And one other factor, if there is a lockout in 2027, that is a lot of money lost for Rogers. I wonder if there is some kind of pressure to make playoffs, just to get some postseason revenue to offset the loss of a full season. I'm not saying that is a BIG reason but I wonder if it is a factor even a lil bit.

With that being said, even if the Jays buy, I don't even feel like that is the right move, feels more like trying to force something.

[EDIT: I see people saying what the team should do which is fine but the purpose of this post was to ask all of you, what you think the team is going to do. In your soul, in your gut, do you think the FO will choose to sell and give up the season, or push for a Wildcard]

You wanna know what I find very frustrating, this Jays team always seems to have like 6-8 hits per game. When you sprinkle in a couple walks, that should be a good game for the offence. You should be able to score some runs.

However, all season long, for a multitude of reasons, some logical some unexplainable, the Jays have been able to get hits but are almost futile when it comes to scoring runners.

Look at yesterday’s game vs the Braves.

8 hits to the Braves 9. Only 3 runs, two of them on solo home runs.

There’s a couple things I want to go get into so here they are.

- How can you be a good team at getting hits yet suck with RISP?

Normally, at the end the of the season, the best teams at RISP also happen to be the best hitting teams as well in various stats, and the worst teams with RISP are just bad hitting teams in general.

This Jays team seems to be going against the grain because when bases are empty or with man on 1st, the Jays team are top ten in the league at getting hits, BUT when a man is on second the offence just dies, they are bottom ten in the league. And that is part that frustrates me because I don’t know why.

“So you CAN hit well, you just suck for some reason when you have to score”

Part of me feels like the Jays RISP will fix itself because the team can already hit, surely they will start scoring….. eventually……. Hopefully.

- ENOUGH WITH THIS 2 OUTS THEN START HITTING BS

This to me is the biggest reason behind this seasons lack of wins, how many times do we get RISP with 2 outs. I swear to god this is the exact type of inning that happens so much.

“Ground out (1 out), Strikeout (2 out), Single, Double (man on 3 and 2), flyball to the outfield (3 outs)”

That flyball would’ve been a sac with less than 2 outs. I don’t understand it but it really feels like we never are in positions to score runners with less than 2. Yesterday’s game we literally had “fly out, groundout, single, single, strikeout.”

Listen, this team lacks slug so if you’re not gonna slug, at least try to move the runners, play some small ball, score runs the smart way. I want sac flys, I want aggressive base running, we need to be in positions where you just put the ball in play and score.

That’s just my observation on this teams rather strange inability to score with RISP, if their are other things I missed like certain reasons or if you have your own observations comment them down.

The season is not over yet. This team has something. They aren’t complete garbage.

The rotation is generally great with some real amazing performances and the bullpen is actually elite aside from a few struggling guys.

This is gonna be really harsh truth but it’s has to be said.

“This team would be 500 right now if the offence was simply mid”

Unfortunately*** ***the bats have been completely futile and it’s a combination of 2 obvious mistakes and reasons people already know.

1. Injuries to key players has forced us to use players that aren’t good enough
2. Key players struggling

Right now the biggest issue we have as a team is that we have too many free swingers. That explains the high chase rate, weak contact rate and also explains why we don’t strike out much.

Free swingers aren’t bad to have but they should round out the lineup. Having a couple guys that can put the ball in play and move runners.

Varsho, Clement, Valenzuela, Hienemann, Sosa.

We have about 4 of these guys filling in the lineup every single game.

The one thing that I truly believe why the lineup will turn itself around if when injured players come back.

Look at this lineup for a second.

1. Springer
2. Barger
3. Guerrero
4. Okamoto
5. Kirk
6. Varsho
7. Clement
8. Lukes
9. Gimenez

This right here, is a lineup that can play, when these guys are at the top of their game, even just being average you can still win games.

And as a bonus you have a bench of
Valenzuela, Pinango, ,Schinder, Straw, Sanchez, Sosa, and Hienemann.
( I know that some guys will be sent down or DFA’d but I don’t know who so take your picks)

Now about players, like Vlad, like Springer, like even Clement who has been struggling. Simply put they need to turn it around and I think they will.

These guys are going through the coldest spell ever. I’ve never seen Vladdy this poor before but here’s the thing. You don’t go from being the best offence in baseball last year and become a bad hitter and forget everything you did in a single offseason.

Vladdy will turn around, the idea of Vlad finishing with less than ten homeruns and a 700 OPS feels inconceivable. Springer I knew was gonna regress but I still believe he has more left in the tank. His bat speed is worse than last season but it’s still good enough. He’s popping the ball up more than ever in his career and if Springer stops getting under the ball, you will see him do better.

Guys like Varsho, Okamoto, Clement. They are who they are and what they are in the box are generally good. Clement will always be a hitting freak, Varsho can pop one every now and then. Okamoto can hit MLB pitching.

By the grace of God, the AL is really shit this year and despite being 6 games back of 500 we are only 2 games back of wildcard which is tragically funny.

All the bats need to do is not be literal garbage and we are still in playoff contention.

Let’s turn this ship around.

---

Tomorrow is the lottery for the Leafs so why don’t we take a look at other Toronto teams and see how there most recent lotteries went.

Toronto Blue Jays

After the awful 2024 season, the Jays finished with the 5th best odds to win the 1st pick at 7.5% chance. The lottery in the MLB is all teams that don’t make the playoffs are in the lottery and 6 teams can win the lottery with is 1-6. The Jays would end up falling 3 spots and ending with the 8th overall pick. Which is about the worst case scenario that could’ve happened to them. There was a 10% chance of them falling to 8.

Toronto Raptors

The 2025 Raptors season was awful, because the Raptors in the second half faced teams with a combined winning percentage of 300 and had the easiest 2nd half schedule in NBA. They tried to lose on purpose AND STILL they weren’t ass enough to lose games. They ended up finishing with the 7th best record and also had a 7.5 percent chance of 1st overall and a 31% chance of winning top 4 with the lottery. They fell to 9 which is a 13% chance of happening.

All together as you can see, both of these teams got quite unlucky at the lotteries. Not just not winning but actively falling back a bit. The last time a Toronto team won a lottery was the Raptors in 2021 when they jumped from 7 to 4 which they used to draft Scottie Barnes.

Bonus Team

If there is one team the 2025-26 Leafs remind me of is the 2024-2025 Philadelphia 76ers. The 76ers actually have a lot in common with the leafs. SUPER DUPER ASS in 2016, gets the first overall pick. Has a generational talent. Has never made it past the second round. Tons of playoff misery. Coaches that can’t do their job.

In 2024-25 the 76ers were expected to make the playoffs like they did every other season and they were ASS the second the season started. They were God Awful by the half way mark of the season.
The 76ers would finish with the 5 worst record and here’s the thing, their pick was top 6 protected, if it was 7 or higher it would go to OKC so Philly needed to lose and keep their pick.

And at the lottery not only did they keep their pick, the won the lottery at jumped to the 3rd overall pick.

To me, the 76ers are the NBA equivalent of the Leafs and if they could get lucky and win the lottery maybe the Leafs can. And also they made the playoffs next year and have made the second round too.

Maybe in a good and fair world the Leafs keep their pick. Draft a stud and make the second round next year giving Boston a pick in the 20’s.

Toronto teams haven’t gotten lucky in any of their recent lotteries and now the Leafs need to keep their pick. It’s about time the universe give us one.

So the draft lottery is 2 days and this is probably the biggest moment of the season because after this horrible godawful season. Either the Leafs will have something good to come from it OR the Bruins get our pick and leaf fans contemplate if suicide is better than being a leaf fan.

I am making this post because there is an interesting story to think about with the lottery, specifically about how Leaf fans always assume the worst in every situation.

I did the math for the lottery and the odds of the Leafs keep their pick is a little less then 50 percent and the odds of losing is are a little more then 50 percent.
In simple terms, the leafs have a 50/50 coin flip of either happiness or this being the worst season ever.

With that being said, all season long, everytime the lottery or the draft was brought up I would see people already saying that “it doesn’t matter because everyone already knows the pick is going to the Bruins” and basically other stuff of the sort. All the same stuff about how the leafs are never gonna get the good outcome so what is the point.

It really fascinates me how leafs fans have been so used to “eating shit” that any worst outcome in a situation is always the most likely one to us.

I wonder and am asking the question of “if there was another team in our situation, where they needed lottery luck, that the fans would be already assuming the worst and having no hope.”

Like let’s switch it around the Bruins need top 5 to keep their pick or it goes to the Leafs. Would Bruins fans already be admitting defeat and assuming the worst or would they have some hope for the best outcome?