Hey all, today I wanted to share some item investment ideas I have for future months.

Every year with Runefest, we get some amazing insight into what content Jagex is planning to introduce over the next year, and with that, we can start speculating about what items may become in demand across the game. 

While you don't want to make investments too early, now marks a great time to begin analyzing updates and marking your calendar for when you expect updates to land. 

Note: Most of these updates still need to be polled, so keep that in mind.

General Investment Tips

• While you don't want to make investments too early, it never hurts to start keeping track of when you expect updates to arrive. I personally mark up my Google calendar by quarter for when I expect updates to hit, which I will edit depending on any recent updates from the Jagex team in terms of timeline.

• Aim to invest roughly 2 month prior to update release. This is a general rule of mine, but I try to purchase ~75% of my investment by the two-month mark. Getting your money in this early allows for some hype to drive the items price by the time of release.

• If you're unsure exit early. Probably the biggest tip I can give, but if you invest in an item, and you're not 100% convinced it'll go up on the updates release date, then sell before the release. I can't tell you how many times I hear people lose money due to trying to sell on or after the update day; its just not worth the gamble in most scenarios.

Fractured Archive

  I was surprised we were getting the Fractured Archive (raids 4) on October 20th, as it was originally planned for winter of this year (according to the last roadmap Jagex released). I believe it's a tad late for Raids 4 investing, but I still have my eyes on a few things.

Inquisitor Armor First up and most obvious, inquisitor. If you're not already invested in this item, I think you've likely missed the boat, but the complete set is up +27% in the past month, and +150% in the past year, which is insane. I think its pretty clear that crush is the meta for Raids 4, but if it's not, i'd expect inquisitor to take a big hit. I already believe it's overpriced at this level, but if its by far the best armor to use in Raids 4 then maybe it's not. I'll be looking to trade this on release day.

Harmonised Orb I think this has flown under the radar recently for a lot of players, but the harmonised orb is up 20% on the month alone, and up over +250% on the year. Harm orbs are a very low supply item to begin with, and when low supply items are in demand it really shoots up the price. I think harm orbs have a chance to be a BIS in Raids 4 as they may have elemental weaknesses incorporated into the raid(?). If not, I still think it'll be a strong runner up behind the Shadow. I'd also note that it appears the Harm orb may be useful in the new solo PvM challenge, Tower of Xophoros. If it uses ancient magicks, Harm orb could easily play a strong role there. And yes, it's in the trailer Jagex released, but we know those aren't super trustworthy in terms of accuracy to the content.

Big 3 I'd say the Twisted Bow, Scythe, And Shadow are likely all good buys for Raids 4. The safest bet is the Twisted Bow in my opinion, as its not challenged by the Harm orb like the Shadow is, and it's not challenged by the new megarare, like the Scythe is. While Tbow is the safest best, it's also going to be your lowest ROI, as it's already priced in. I feel like it's still potentially not too late on these as they're still below their monthly low prices.

The Chosen Commander

Buckets of Sand Funnily enough I think buckets of sand could be a good play here depending on the rewards from this minigame. It’s mentioned that buckets of sand will be used, and that's already an item with a relatively healthy market of 3.5m daily trades. Now you’re not going to become a trillionaire on this play, but you could see a 25-50% increase and it's a really cheap item that trades in the range of like 6gp - 10gp consistently. 

With the high volumes too, I don’t think this one would be hard to offload when compared to thinner markets, which is always a challenge. Great idea for players who are new to investing or don’t have a ton of capital. Extremely limited downside on this one at current price.

Dungeons of Gilenor

I think most people caught this one relatively quick, but the most obvious investment to me seems to be in the dragonbane weaponry. Dragon Hunter Crossbow, Dragon Hunter Lance, Dragon Hunter Wand , all seem to be a decent play here. The price popped during the Runefest announcement, and is now settling back near it’s weekly averages (but slightly above).

While I do think this is a solid trade and will uptrend to release, I think this one is mostly pre-update hype and players should exercise caution when trading this one. There isn’t suddenly going to be mass demand for a mid-game boss. If we were talking about a full dragon raid, that’d be a different story. Either way, i’d expect higher prices leading up to the update.

Mephanos

There wasn’t enough information here for me to draw any strong conclusions, but with the new Soul altar coming, i’d imagine we’ll see a higher volume of supply for soul runes, and maybe some slight downward pressure longterm on the rune. Not really a major concern, but I wouldn’t be making soul rune investments based off of this news.

They also mentioned another cactus patch coming. I was thinking maybe a new cactus plant being introduced with Menaphos as it seems weird to randomly add a patch? If not, higher supply on the Cactus spines, which already have a fairly low price compared to old averages (I remember trading these for 6k+ YEARS ago!).

Mining & Smithing Rework

Still seems like this is in the early stages, but the only item I feel strongly on here is Coal. Coal is used in most smithing recipes, and if they’re lowering the smithing requirement on a lot of stuff, I'd imagine coal will be in more demand. There could potentially be some exp buffs on the table here too, which most ore would benefit from (including coal), but I think that is more unlikely.

A big pro for coal is that it’s a F2P item, so you can mass buy across alts and get a big position. Downside here is that coal has been downtrending for months, maybe due to less bots? I never like investing in a downtrend personally, but since this is far away it may make sense to build a position.

Tower of Xophoros

As I mentioned earlier, only really considering the harm orb for this one. This is so far away that it’s not really in-scope for me yet.

Anyway, that’s my analysis. I created a video on this as well if you want to hear more detail about the upside/downside of some of these trades.

Hey everyone, my name is Scapenomics and i've been flipping in OSRS and making flipping guides on Youtube since 2016. I recently came across this sub-reddit and realized I don't really make a lot of written content, nor do I have a good way to answer specific questions people have about flipping, so I thought i'd start posting here to help people who are still learning how to flip or want to improve.

Today, I wanted to cover the basics of overnight flipping as it's by far my favorite way to flip.

What is Overnight Flipping?

Overnight Flipping is the act of buying items near or at their daily low prices, and selling them back near their daily high prices, over an 8-12 hour timeframe (overnight). You may have heard the term, "buy low, sell high", which is accurate, but a bit of an oversimplification.

Why is Overnight Flipping so great?

Out of all flipping styles, Overnight Flipping has some of the largest advantages:

• Longer timeframes lead to larger margins. When you're flipping overnight, you're leaving your buy offer in for 8-12 hours. Because of this, the market has a fair bit of time to fluctuate and reach lower/higher prices. This allows you to buy at the lowest price points throughout the day, meaning your target margin is essentially the difference between the daily high price and the daily low price.
• Multiple buy limits. Since you're flipping a timeframe which is longer than 4 hours, You're able to purchase multiple buy limits of an item, often between 2-3 limits depending on how long you're logged out.

Easiest way to Overnight Flip For Beginners

If you're new to overnight flipping, I highly recommend starting out by flipping high-volume, tax-free items. Any item that has over 1M daily trades and sells for less than 50gp will work perfectly. These items tend to be very low risk and trade in fairly predictable patterns, which makes it easy to find your target buy and sell prices overnight.

Setting up your flip

To find what prices to buy and sell at for your trade, pull up your favorite price tracking website and head to the daily view of your item of choice. In this example, i'm going to flip the Lizardman Fang.

Lizardman Fang example

Just by taking a rough look at the graph, you can see the item's low point over the past 24 hours was 7gp, and its high point was 10gp. Considering how consistent these prices seem, it's not impossible to imagine that 12 hours in the future, this item will continue to trade in the 7-10gp range.

With this forecast in mind, we can list our buy offer at 7gp, targeting to sell these items at 10gp. Because the buy limit is 13,000 fangs every 4 hours, we can assume we'll fill a minimum of two buy limits overnight.

Now that we have all this info, we can calculate our estimated profit on this flip:

Quantity * Margin = Profit
Quantity: 13,000 fangs * 2 buy limits = 26,000 fangs
Margin: 10gp (sell price) - 7gp (buy price) = 3gp
26,000 fangs * 3gp = 78,000gp
Total GP Invested: 26,000 fangs * 7gp (buy price) = 182,000gp

We can estimate a profit of 78,000gp.

With an ROI of 42.86%

Power of Overnight Flipping

In the example above, we listed one item which made us a profit of 78k, for a total investment of 182k. But that was only one grand exchange slot! Imagine if we filled 8 GE slots with overnight trades.

For simplicity, assume we invested 500k into every GE slot, and made a 40k profit on each trade; that'd be a 320k profit every single night with only 4M gp invested. After a week, you would've made 2.24M, which is over a 50% return on your cashstack.

Not only do you now have much more money from where you started, but the profit compounds on itself. Now that after a week you have 6.2M you can invest more gp into your trades, and make 50-60k profit on each trade, further excelling your profit over time.

Common Misconceptions of Overnight Flipping

You need a lot of GP. Huge misconception, and you could start overnight flipping with 1M and make good returns. In fact in my experience, players who already have a lot of GP who are learning how to flip have a tougher time doing so as they try to flip more valuable items and seek higher returns, which ultimately hurts them (at first).

Will flipping with 1M rival the best money makers in-game? No, but it still takes advantage of the AFK nature of flipping, and will quickly compound into more GP. You've gotta start somewhere!

You always profit. Nope, you definitely don't. With some practice, it's fairly easy to be profitable on ~80% of your trades, but you don't always make easy GP. Sometimes items move lower in price overnight and do not recover during the day, and you'll have to close trades for a loss. This is completely normal and happens; focus on your net profit overtime, and not individual days where you lose money.

Anyway that's enough for this post. I'll also include a video I just made for more visual learners, which goes into extreme detail on setting flips as a beginner.

Happy to answer any questions people have about learning how to flip, and would encourage others who have some experience flipping to share some tips/tricks I missed. Regardless, good luck flipping and may your flips be ever in your favor!