u/SecretWarMultiverse

Riddle me this: an upcoming MCU movie — a massive multiverse team-up/crossover — comes out of nowhere and demolishes every expectation, after a string of CBM underperformances and endless "superhero fatigue" discourse convinced everyone to count it out. Am I describing Avengers: Doomsday or Deadpool 3?

For reference, this was the predictions thread for Deadpool 3 before a trailer or presales, from November 27th, 2023:

https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1859xbj/are_we_overestimating_deadpool_3/

Just read through the thread, it looks hilarious in retrospect. The general consensus was that $700M worldwide was the ceiling because people were sick of Deadpool's dumb jokes, nobody cares about Hugh Jackman, and "superhero fatigue."

This comment right here from u/KingJonsnowIV (who is TheFlatLannister on Box Office Theory) which said "there is no way Deadpool x Wolverine does less than the previous 2 Deadpool movies" originally had 14 downvotes, and the person who replied to him insisting there was no way it was going to pass the original 2 and that he was just being a Marvel fanboy had 29 upvotes

https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1859xbj/comment/kb0el5h/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

Even this comment which was sarcasm basically reeks of "The Flash underperformed so therefore Deadpool 3 will also underperform."

In fact, I just realized the mods had to go back and lock that thread because people were raiding it for how dumb it was.

Lo and behold, the film basically ended up doubling what people expected, opening to a huge $211M DOM/$444M WW, finishing at $637M DOM/$1.34B WW. Its R-Rated worldwide record is going to get taken by The Odyssey soon but its domestic record may or may not stay.

Similarly, people underpredicted the absolute shit out of Avengers: Doomsday. After the 2023 and 2025 movies underperformed (and honestly, they didn't even do that bad, after seeing how Supergirl did), people were saying that Avengers: Doomsday was going to make less than The Odyssey, was going to make less than Age of Ultron, wasn't locked for $1 billion, was going to barely make $1 billion, would barely crack $800 million, would make less than GOTG 3 ($845M) for sure, would make $400M WW max, that Mario Galaxy was going to make more than Doomsday (yeah, all of those are links, go have fun!)

Now, of course, Doomsday is still 4 months away and hasn't performed at the box office yet. But according to tracking, XXR on Box Office Theory is saying it can do ~$80M previews. That is absolutely fucking huge, like holy shit. That puts a potential $400M OW into play. Of course, Batman v Superman level reception can tank it, but this is still going to be absolutely massive. With good reception, I can see this going as high as $400M OW, $1.2B DOM, and $3B WW. You thought Deadpool 3 making $637M DOM/$1.34B WW was huge? This is going to literally double Deadpool 3.

Back, then, in the pre-pandemic era when Marvel was at their peak, a D-list franchise unconnected to the rest of the MCU with a talking tree and racoon was able to gross almost as much as a freaking SPIDER-MAN movie domestically (with Iron Man in it as well). They also both had good reception, so this isn't a "grossing over BVS" type scenario. Back then, D-list properties were able to soar so high whereas Spider-Man's grosses were actually kind of meh. The phase 3 MCU average domestically is $450M, and both Spider-Man movies in phase 3 (Homecoming at $334M and Far From Home at $390M) are below that mark. Spider-Man was a middle of the road franchise back then. Hell, even Aquaman grossed more than Homecoming domestically, and Wonder Woman 2017 grossed more than both Spider-Man movies domestically.

Now, compare that to now, where Brand New Day is headed for $1.05B+ DOM, which is 50% higher than all of the 2025 MCU movies combined ($665M). The popularity of Spider-Man didn't just go up to the stratosphere after NWH, it went straight into fucking space. Meanwhile, the popularity of B-list characters has taken a MASSIVE hit at the box office. The days of an unknown property such as GOTG breaking out to the levels of a Spider-Man movie domestically are completely over.

I think it's possible. keysersoze123 who is one of the more bearish trackers on BOT is saying a $330M OW and Empire City is saying $345M. Let's just average the two out and say $338M. From there, it "only" needs 2.76x legs to top TFA DOM. I think it's possible. The early verified RT is 98%, which means it'll earn a high A or A+ CinemaScore.

Deadpool & Wolverine 2 summers ago which also had a high A CinemaScore did a 3x multiplier. Homecoming (which, admittedly opened way way way less big than this) did a 2.85x multiplier with more competition than BND.

This will be less front-loaded than Endgame because there is much less of a spoiler factor than Endgame and also this has an empty runway whereas Endgame had more competition throughout its run.