u/SerTahu

The looooong-awaited return of football is less than two weeks away!

As we get closer to the start of the ALM, ALW, and Championship seasons I'll be posting ladder prediction contests for them. Current plan is to post the ALW ladder prediction thread on Thursday, the ALM one on Sunday, then Last Man Standing next Wednesday.

 

So, how does this one work?

The contest is fairly straightforward - simply comment with your full prediction for each of the four groups, PLUS your predictions for semi-finalists, runner up, and Champion.

Here's how the scoring works: Everyone starts off with 32 points. However, you lose a point for every spot between where you predict a team will finish and where they actually finish. So for example, if you predict Marconi to top their group, but instead they finish 3rd, you lose 2 points. If you predict Bayswater to come 4th in their group but they top it you lose 3 points, etc.

After that, you get a bonus point for each correct semi-finalist, each correct finalist, and 2 points for correct Champion. These stack, so if for example you correctly tip Avondale to be Champions you'll get 4 points total from them - 1 for them making the semis, 1 for them making the finals, and 2 for them being Champions.

Max score is 40 points (perfect group stage, and nailing the predictions for semi-finalists, finalists, and Champion).

 

If you need a reminder of who is in which group, the Wikipedia page is your friend. Also for reference I believe the knockout bracket (assuming they use the same one as last year) is 1A vs 2C, 1B vs 2D, then on the other side 1C vs 2A, and 1D vs 2B.

The cutoff for entries is the kickoff of Preston vs Wollongong next Thursday.

 

What's the prize? Absolutely nothing. We're purely playing for pride, and because it's interesting to see what the general consensus is.

 

Btw, here are the winners from last season's contests:

Championship - /u/tahk-ki, with 29 points out of 40.

ALW - /u/thurdunn, with 38 points from a max of 60.

ALM - /u/lincof, with 44 points out of 72.

Good luck!

The game between North Sunshine Eagles and Heidelberg United has been moved to Hume City's Stadium. It was originally annoucned as taking place at Ironbark Fields. No reason for the change in location was given.

Additionally, APIA Leichhardt vs SU58 has been confirmed for Leichhardt Oval.

The Ro32 is done, and 16 clubs remain:

1. APIA Leichhardt
2. Brisbane Roar
3. Brunswick Juventus
4. Fremantle City
5. Heidelberg United
6. Lions FC
7. Macarthur FC
8. Melbourne City
9. Melbourne Victory
10. North Sunshine Eagles
11. Preston Lions
12. SD Raiders
13. South Melbourne
14. Sydney FC
15. Sydney United 58
16. Western Sydney Wanderers

Rules for the draw:

• If it's an A-League side vs an A-League side, the side drawn first will be the home team.
• If it's an NPL side vs an NPL side, the side drawn first will be the home team.
• If it's an A-League side vs an NPL side, the NPL side will always be the home team.
• The Quarter-Finals and Semi-Finals will be drawn at the same time.

#Round of 16 Fixtures:

• Match 1: Brisbane Roar v Sydney FC
• Match 2: Brunswick Juventus v Preston Lions
• Match 3: WS Wanderers v Melbourne Victory
• Match 4: Lions FC v Melbourne City
• Match 5: APIA Leichhardt v Sydney United 58
• Match 6: SD Raiders v Macarthur FC
• Match 7: North Sunshine Eagles v Heidelberg United
• Match 8: South Melbourne v Fremantle City

#Quarter Final Fixtures:

• QF 1: Winner M2 v Winner M8
• QF 2: Winner M4 v Winner M7
• QF 3: Winner M1 v Winner M6
• QF 4: Winner M5 v Winner M3

#Semi-Final Fixtures:

• SF 1: Winner QF3 v Winner QF4
• SF 2: Winner QF1 v Winner QF2

 

If I've read it correctly, the bracket is as as follows:

Brisbane Roar    ˥
Sydney FC        ˩    ˥
                           ˥
SD Raiders       ˥    ˩
Macarthur FC     ˩

APIA Leichhardt  ˥
Sydney United 58 ˩    ˥
                           ˩
WS Wanderers     ˥    ˩
Melb. Victory    ˩

Brunswick Juve   ˥
Preston Lions    ˩    ˥
                           ˥
South Melb.      ˥    ˩
Fremantle City   ˩

Lions FC         ˥
Melb. City       ˩    ˥
                           ˩
North Sunshine   ˥    ˩
Heidelberg       ˩

With the World Cup expanding to 48 nations, and the best eight of twelve 3rd placed sides from the group stage progressing to the knockouts in this new format, you may have noticed these fixtures listed for the Round of 32:

• 1E vs 3A/B/C/D/F
• 1I vs 3C/D/F/G/H
• 1D vs 3B/E/F/I/J
• 1G vs 3A/E/H/I/J
• 1A vs 3C/E/F/H/I
• 1L vs 3E/H/I/J/K
• 1B vs 3E/F/G/I/J
• 1K vs 3D/E/I/J/L

Eight of the group winners have 5 possible opponents listed for their Round of 32 match.

Twelve groups, but only eight 3rd sides progressing and we don't know which ones until the group stage is done, so there's obviously some uncertainty in the bracket about who exactly will face who. But 5 possible opponents for each of those group winners seems rather unweildy, and hard to figure out.

Which all begs two questions: 1) What specific mechanism determines where the 3rd placed sides end up going? And 2) Are the different possible Ro32 matchups equally likely to occer?

Short answers: 1) 'Annex C', and 2) No, some matches are far more likely than others.

Longer answers:

#1) WHAT IS 'ANNEX C'?

It's basically just a giant table listing out all of the possible cominations of 3rd placed sides, and where those sides go for that combination. So there's a row for if the 8 sides are from groups A,B,C,D,E,F,G,H, a row for A,B,C,D,E,F,G,I, a row for A,B,C,D,E,F,G,J, etc.

This isn't a new concept. Euro 2024, being a 24 team tournament with the best 4 of 6 third placed sides progressing, had a similar table. Same for the 24 team World Cups in the 90s. The scale of the table is a little different, though. With 4 of 6 progressing, those tournaments had 15 possible combinations of third placed sides, which was fairly easy to keep track of.

But this tournament has 8 of 12 progressing, which has a few more cominbations... 495 to be precise. Yes, 495. Wikipedia conveniently has all of the possible cominations listed out for us..

No fan could be reasonably expected to remember and keep track of all of them. But thankfully, something I quickly noticed glancing at the giant World Cup 2026 Annex C table is that some pairings are FAR more likely than others. Conversely, some pairings only have a fraction of a percentage change of happening. Knowing which pairings are likely, and which can effectively be ignored, makes things a little easier to follow.

Which brings us to question 2 and the point of this post:

#2) WHICH ROUND OF 32 MATCHES ARE MOST LIKELY?

I went through the 495 possibilities (or rather excel did), and summed up the number of occurrences of each pairing to work out what the most likely Ro32 matches are.

From the perspective of the 8 group winners that have been paired against 3rd placed sides, their most likely opponents are:

.	3A	3B	3C	3D	3E	3F	3G	3H	3I	3J	3K	3L
1A vs			19.6%		36.8%	0.6%		39.2%	3.8%
1B vs					5.3%	1.0%	52.5%		2.8%	38.4%
1D vs		66.5%			7.9%	2.2%			10.5%	12.9%
1E vs	3.2%	0.2%	46.7%	42.8%		7.1%
1G vs	63.4%				1.2%			17.2%	8.3%	9.9%
1I vs			0.4%	20.0%		55.8%	14.1%	9.7%
1K vs				3.8%	9.7%				18.4%	1.4%		66.7%
1L vs					5.9%			0.6%	22.8%	4.0%	66.7%

 

Or, from the perspective of the third placed sides IF they progress:

.	1A	1B	1D	1E	1G	1I	1K	1L
3A vs				4.8%	95.2%
3B vs			99.7%	0.3%
3C vs	29.4%			70.0%		0.6%
3D vs				64.2%		30%	5.8%
3E vs	55.2%	7.9%	11.8%		1.8%		14.5%	8.8%
3F vs	0.9%	1.5%	3.3%	10.6%		83.6%
3G vs		78.8%				21.2%
3H vs	58.8%				25.8%	14.5%		0.9%
3I vs	5.8%	4.2%	15.8%		12.4%		27.6%	34.2%
3J vs		57.6%	19.4%		14.8%		2.1%	6.1%
3K vs								100%
3L vs							100%

Keep in mind that this second table is for each 3rd placed side IF they progress, which is only two thirds of the time. So 3K for example WILL face 1L IF they progress (so it's 100% for them in the second table), but them progressing only has a 2/3 likelihood of happening (so that fixture is given 66.7% for 1L in the first table).

 

To summarise the main probabilities in more human terms:

• 1A: Most likely a coin toss between 3E and 3H, maybe 3C.
• 1B: Probably 3G, or maybe 3J.
• 1D: Almost certainly 3B if they progress, otherwise a coin toss between 3I and 3J.
• 1E: Coin toss between 3C and 3D.
• 1G: Almost certainly 3A if they progress, otherwise probably 3H.
• 1I: Probably 3F. Failing that, most likely 3D, 3G, or 3H (in that order).
• 1K: 3L if they progress. If not, probably 3I or maybe 3E.
• 1L: 3K if they progress. If not, probably 3I.

And the 3rd placed sides, IF they progress the most likely opponents are:

• 3A: They'll almost certainly face 1G.
• 3B: 1D in literally all but one scenario in which 3B progresses.
• 3C: Probably 1E, but maybe 1A.
• 3D: If 3F doesn't progress then probably 3I. Otherwise, almost certainly 1E.
• 3E: If both 3K and 3L fail to progress then 1K. Otherwise, probably 1A.
• 3F: Probably 1I, but an outside chance of facing 1E.
• 3G: Most likely 1B, but an outside chance of 1I
• 3H: If 3A doesn't progress then 3H most likely takes the spot against 1G. Otherwise probably 1A, with an outside chance of 1I.
• 3I: If 3K doesn't progress then IL, otherwise if 3L doesn't progress then 1K, otherwise a coin toss between 1D or 1G.
• 3J: If 3B doesn't progress, 3J is the most likely option to face 1D. Otherwise, probably 1B or maybe 1G.
• 3K: 1L in all scenarios in which they progress.
• 3L: 1K in all scenarios in which they progress.

Most likley Round of 32 pairings:

• 1E vs 3C/D
• 1I vs 3F/D/G
• 1D vs 3B/I/J
• 1G vs 3A/H/J
• 1A vs 3E/H/C
• 1L vs 3K/I
• 1B vs 3G/J
• 1K vs 3L/I