The Dynasty Sell You Don’t Want to Hear
Let me preface by saying I know I’m going to get crushed for this post. Other than that, I’ll get right to it.
The biggest “sell high” in dynasty is…. Josh Allen.
To be clear: this is not an argument against Allen as a player. I think he’s phenomenal. He’s probably the best QB in football and he’s been the gold standard of fantasy consistency for half a decade.
My argument is about dynasty economics.
Allen’s current market value implies he provides a massive positional advantage over the rest of the QB landscape. I’m not convinced the actual scoring gap justifies the cost required to acquire or hold him.
Seemingly every “expert” or analyst will consistently say he’s worth 4+ 1sts.
Let’s take a look.
Allen fantasy PPG over the last 5 seasons:
2025: 23.4
2024: 23.9
2023: 25.9
2022: 25.5
2021: 26.1
Now compare that to some other QBs from 2025:
Trevor Lawrence: 21.7 PPG
Justin Herbert: 20.1 PPG
Caleb Williams: 19.7 PPG
Bo Nix: 19.8 PPG
Jalen Hurts: 20.3 PPG
And there’s more where that came from. Not to mention an incoming QB class in 2027 that many believe will re shape the market,
The above PPG is roughly a 2-4 PPG difference between Allen and a large cluster of QBs that are valued dramatically lower in dynasty. If Allen continues the decline into the low 20s with PPG, I believe he will have a decently large decrease in value compared to what he’s at now.
And obviously depending on format, the edge shrinks even more.
In 6-point passing TD leagues especially, elite rushing QBs lose some of the separation that exists in standard 4-point formats. In 1QB leagues, replacement value becomes even more relevant.
My takeaway is an attempt to not conflate the best player with the best value, although I do understand the point of playing fantasy is to have the best players and to win.
Allen is still QB1. But being QB1 does not automatically mean he is the most efficient use of dynasty resources.
If the market values him at Herbert/Lawrence + 2 1sts, I think there’s a legitimate argument that the insulation and flexibility gained from tiering down outweighs the weekly scoring edge.
I would seriously consider moving Allen for a package like this. Not because I expect Trevor/Herbert/etc to outscore Allen outright (though they could), but because I don’t think the difference between Allen and the QB6-QB10 range is large enough to justify the gap in market cost.
The point of this isn’t that I believe Allen id going to fall off or decline, though many will point to his age and the amount of rushing production he offers. The point is that dynasty players may be overpaying for relatively small advantages at the QB position while sacrificing too much roster value elsewhere.
If someone in your league wants to pay an untouchable premium for Allen, I think there’s a strong argument that cashing out at peak value is the sharpest long-term play.