u/ShitsRejected

Insurance man here - and i specialize in freight brokerage. I have ice water in my veins and this SCOTUS decision might even be less impactful than the actual CH Robinson case heading back to Illinois. I've been doing this a long time, both as a filthy retail broker and as an underwriter.
Montgomery Insurance Impact

• Contingent Auto Liability: No respectable underwriter in this space was surprised by the 9-0 decision. There have been some outliers, but the market overall has been priced adequately for the past 4-5 years. Going forward, expect rates to climb roughly 20% by 2029. The build will be gradual since these are long-tail claims with a normal 2-3 year settlement delay, and the 6th and 9th Circuits were already letting these cases proceed, so a lot of actuarial loss data is already in the book. The slower economy has also pushed investors and therefore insurers to test the waters on "higher-rate with higher-severity" lines like Contingent Auto. For the remainder of 2026, competition and capacity are actually increasing, which is creating soft market opportunities. If you are not shopping this year, you could miss the window to improve limits, rates, or coverage. Going from a $1M to a $2M Contingent Auto limit, for example, may be easier and less expensive than you'd expect.
• Contingent Cargo: Softer market expected. Rates flat to modestly down. Stricter carrier selection should reduce rollover and accident frequency across the board.
• Strategic Theft / Fraud: Hard market conditions to continue for with no relief in sight. Expect limited coverage, limited capacity and limited underwriting appetite, even with clean loss history.