r/FreightBrokers

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Seeing a lot of angry comments on X about how the broker didn't do their due diligence in vetting this carrier, Swift is responsible, etc.... I did a quick look at them on Carrier411 and Highway and I probably would've booked without much concern. They have no negative marks or FreightGuard reports. They've been around since 2019, they have ELDs connected, they look ok. I would ask for pics of the truck. Do I need to up my vetting process? Would you book this carrier?

Hey Colleagues
What is average rates now ? 3$ rpm?

**🛢 OIL / IRAN — major pivot**

WTI crashed yesterday to **$99.21** (-5.66%). Brent at **~$105** (-5.1%). First real reversal since the war began February 28.

Diplomacy is back in motion. Iran is evaluating a US 14-point proposal delivered via Pakistan. Three supertankers crossed the Strait of Hormuz on May 20 — the first significant flows since March.

Key context from today’s sources:

• 🌊 **Hormuz**: 3 supertankers transited yesterday. Real signal — but partial. ADNOC CEO warned full Middle East flows unlikely to recover before **late 2027**.
• ⏱ **Gulf transit**: 2 months from loading to end markets. Even if the deal sticks, refined product relief is weeks away.
• 💰 **Goldman Sachs**: Global oil stocks at 101 days of demand — approaching 8-year low, falling toward 98 days by end of May. Inventory drawdowns at record 11-12 mb/d pace in April.
• 💵 **AAA Memorial Day**: U.S. gas national avg **$4.51-4.56/gal** — highest Memorial Day prices since 2022. 45M Americans expected to travel May 21-25 (new record).
• 🏭 **Structural**: UAE exited OPEC+ on May 1. That capacity loss is permanent regardless of Iran outcome.

⚠️ Do NOT cut FSC rates this week. If the deal collapses by Tuesday, you eat the difference. Hold through May 27 EIA release, then reassess.

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**⚠️ CVSA ROADCHECK 2026 — results just dropped**

• 🔴 **Arizona DPS** (May 20): ~33% out-of-service rate on 1,000+ inspections — either vehicle or driver. Top violations: "fictitious logbook entries and broken vehicle parts."
• 📊 **FreightWaves** Day 1 national data: 31.4% OOS rate against total inspection volume.
• 📈 For context: 2025 full-event vehicle OOS rate was 18.4%. Historical norm ~20%. This year is materially higher.
• 📋 **2026 driver focus**: ELD tampering, falsification, manipulation.
• 📦 **2026 vehicle focus**: cargo securement.
• 🔧 In 2025, brakes accounted for 24.4% of vehicle OOS findings — watch for that pattern to repeat in 2026 data when CVSA releases full results.

---

**⛈ WEATHER — Memorial Day weekend risk**

• 🌧 **S/SE Texas + W Louisiana**: Slight Risk excessive rainfall Sat-Sun (NWS WPC). Several inches over already-saturated soils.
• ⚡ **SW Texas Hill Country**: Flash flooding tonight — critical. I-10 TX, I-35 TX Austin.
• 🌩 **Mid-Atlantic + S New England**: Moderate-heavy rain Saturday. I-95 corridor watch.
• 🌥 **Ohio Valley / Mid-Atlantic**: Severe storms tonight — damaging winds + isolated hail. I-77, I-81, I-84.
• 🌡 **East heatwave**: ENDED Wednesday. Below-normal temps spreading Plains/Midwest. Reefer demand easing Thu-Fri.
• 🌊 **Atlantic Hurricane Season**: 11 days to official June 1 start. Position Gulf Coast contingencies.

---

**🚂 AAR RAIL — wk May 16 released**

AAR May 20: U.S. weekly rail traffic **511,216** carloads + intermodal units, **+4.2% YoY** — 6th consecutive week up.

• Intermodal **280,719** (+7.3%) — strongest segment
• Carloads **230,497** (+0.6%)
• Grain +9.8%, Petroleum +9.8%, Metallic ores +4.9%
• Coal -6.2%
• NA total **716,194** (+4.2%)
• YTD 19 wks: **9.56M units** (+2.0% YoY)

---

**⛽ DIESEL / RATES — confirmed**

• EIA wk May 18: **$5.596/gal** (-4.3¢) · FSC baseline this week
• Gulf Coast cheapest: $5.142/gal · California: $7.385/gal · Rocky Mountain disrupted: $4.587/gal
• Spot rates wk May 15 (Roadcheck week, DAT): Van **$2.58/mi** (+21¢) · Reefer **$3.05/mi** (+32¢) · Flatbed **$3.16/mi** (+10¢)
• FTR/Truckstop: Total $3.48/mi · Flatbed all-in **$3.60/mi RECORD** (broke May 2022 ATH) · 20 weeks straight up · Reefer +52.2¢ largest WoW spike ever recorded
• Equipment posts -12% during CVSA (flatbed -20%)
• USD/CAD: **1.3751** (live May 21)
• Next EIA: May 27 (holiday-delayed) · Next DAT/FTR: May 26

---

**📅 MEMORIAL DAY FRIDAY CAPACITY CRUNCH**

Monday May 25 federal holiday. Borders reduced staffing. Most shippers closed Mon. Drivers positioning Friday = capacity vanishes Friday PM.

Confirm all weekend + Monday loads with carrier commitment by **Thursday EOD** or you’re hunting Friday afternoon.

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That’s the morning brief.

⏰ **Next update: tomorrow morning before 7 AM ET** — will include any overnight Iran developments, fresh WTI/Brent, NWS Day 1 outlook, and Memorial Day weekend road condition snapshots.

Sources: FXDailyReport May 21, TradingEconomics May 20-21, Polymarket May 21, Barchart May 20, CNBC May 20, ADNOC via Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs via Energy News Beat / OilPrice.com, AAA Memorial Day forecast, NWS WPC May 20 3:14 PM EDT, NWS SPC May 20, EIA.gov May 19, FRED, Overdrive May 19 (DAT/FTR wk May 15), AAR via AJOT / Railway Age / Trains.com May 20, Arizona DPS via CDL Life May 21, FreightWaves Roadcheck Day 1, Bank of Canada, Yahoo Finance live, CVSA, CBP.

The title says it all, is your freight brokerage making money this week or losing hella money?

If you are losing money this week, do you find it happening on strict contracted freight, trying to maintain customer relationships or what factors are contributing to your losses?

If you are making money this week, are you getting your customers to come up and pay spot rates or what factors are contributing to your margin gains?

Insurance man here - and i specialize in freight brokerage. I have ice water in my veins and this SCOTUS decision might even be less impactful than the actual CH Robinson case heading back to Illinois. I've been doing this a long time, both as a filthy retail broker and as an underwriter.
Montgomery Insurance Impact

• Contingent Auto Liability: No respectable underwriter in this space was surprised by the 9-0 decision. There have been some outliers, but the market overall has been priced adequately for the past 4-5 years. Going forward, expect rates to climb roughly 20% by 2029. The build will be gradual since these are long-tail claims with a normal 2-3 year settlement delay, and the 6th and 9th Circuits were already letting these cases proceed, so a lot of actuarial loss data is already in the book. The slower economy has also pushed investors and therefore insurers to test the waters on "higher-rate with higher-severity" lines like Contingent Auto. For the remainder of 2026, competition and capacity are actually increasing, which is creating soft market opportunities. If you are not shopping this year, you could miss the window to improve limits, rates, or coverage. Going from a $1M to a $2M Contingent Auto limit, for example, may be easier and less expensive than you'd expect.
• Contingent Cargo: Softer market expected. Rates flat to modestly down. Stricter carrier selection should reduce rollover and accident frequency across the board.
• Strategic Theft / Fraud: Hard market conditions to continue for with no relief in sight. Expect limited coverage, limited capacity and limited underwriting appetite, even with clean loss history.

 

So I havent seen really anyone talking about an absolutely massive SCOTUS decision that came out on the 14th (Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II). It was a unanimous decision that essentially makes it so freight brokers can be held liable in negligent hiring suits under state law.

For a TLDR of the case background it was a guy who had a severe accident and he not only sued the driver who hit him and his company but the freight broker itself.

The outcome of this case is going to literally wipe out 40% or more of small trucking and broker firms for trucking lol. Insurance premiums have already gone up 2-4x. So now trucking has to be defacto double insured to the max because not only is the trucking company itself liable but now the freight broker is as well.

As expected this will undoubtedly cause prices of shipping to go up and consolidation, because there is no way most small brokers can afford this. I saw one study that said 40% of firms will close.

Trucking is literally a massive industry. Millions of Americans work in this stuff. And now on top of costs to insure and ship, hiring is going to be harder since they (brokers) are going to start heavily vetting drivers. yipee!

Hello all. I know might be wrong group to post this in lol but figured I’d ask from carriers. I know there’s a broker question for this too.

Carriers, what are your exit strategies and where did you end up going or thinking on going? Question is open ended, what other businesses did you end up opening or investing in? I have 11 truck units, 16 trailers, and a warehouse of my own- it’s leased for another 2.5 years, some cash and 2 personal properties - and just considering on heading out of this game or staying not sure yet. But looking at options on what else to do, with whatever I have left in this life.

Any real suggestions or personal experience answers would be appreciated. Thanks !

Newer to sales but have 10+ years in transportation and logistics. Got into sales for a newer brokerage. Cold calling cold emailing and LinkedIn messaging for outreach. Not getting any answers on phone calls. Emails and LinkedIn are hit and miss. What is working for sales people on the outreach side. Customers out there, what outreach do you prefer to get?

Been brokering for 5 months. I'm with a startup so we've got our hands completely full, and I'll be the first to say I've been pretty lucky on a few of these wins. Looking for an honest gut check from people who've been in it longer.

•    62 calls/day on average
•    120 unique email addresses to specific logistics managers, freight handlers, and warehouse managers (not generic inboxes)
•    ~25 follow-up emails a day
•    2-4 quotes/week to brand new customers
Book of business so far:
•    About 10 companies I've moved freight for. Mostly small shippers, mostly rough freight, tbh.
•    One steady customer averaging $3,318/week gross margin for the last 2 months. Their consignee is totally packed out so shipments are paused, but the shipper is still very communicative and feeding me quotes. I don't think I've lost them — feel like I handled the relationship well.
•    Just landed a major multi-regional company. Starting with one store but they want all their freight through me. They got attracted to our system over lunch — honestly a lucky fit.
•    Ran one 4,400 mile load Alaska → Florida. Same customer has a big summer project lined up on similar lanes.
•    Quoted some international freight — numbers were good but the order got fully canceled.

Know I've still got a ton to learn. Where should a 5-month broker actually be at this point, and what would you be doing differently if you were me?

We hauled a fresh berry load on a reefer. At the receiver they rejected the load because it was not held at the right temp and now broker want to file a claim on our insurance.

We pulled the reefer download and it was running basically the whole trip at the right temp.

My question:
If the reefer was functioning properly, can the carrier still be held responsible if the berries were loaded warm or not properly precooled?

What would you guys do in this situation before insurance gets involved?

**🛢 OIL / IRAN — still the story**

WTI closed yesterday at **$108.21** (+3.1%). Brent at **$110.69** (+2.6%). Both up **54%+** since the Iran war began on February 28.

Iran stalemate confirmed. Trump called the Iranian counteroffer **“garbage.”** Ceasefire is on “life support.”

Key context from today’s sources:

• 🌊 **Hormuz**: Some tankers have resumed movement — but flows remain far below normal and could deteriorate quickly if talks collapse.

• 🏢 **Saudi Aramco CEO**: If Hormuz stays blocked past mid-June, oil market normalization extends **into 2027.**

• 💰 **Goldman Sachs**: Global oil stocks at 101 days of demand — falling to 98 by end of May. Product scarcity risks rising in South Africa, India, Thailand, and Taiwan.

• 💸 **IEA**: Cumulative supply losses from Hormuz already exceed **1 billion barrels.** 14 mb/d shut in — unprecedented.

• 💵 **$45 billion** extra spent by Americans on fuel since the war began.

⚠️ Do NOT revise FSC rates downward. Oil risk remains skewed to the upside.

**⛈ WEATHER — updated**

• 🌩️ **Southern Plains / Arklatex**: Widely scattered severe storms today through tomorrow. Damaging winds + large hail primary threats. I-35 TX-OK, I-40 OK, I-30 TX-AR.

• ⚡ **Mid Mississippi Valley / Lower Great Lakes**: Scattered severe storms this afternoon. Wind damage + hail. I-55 MO-TN, I-65 KY-IN.

• 🌧️ **Texas Hill Country**: Heavy rain risk Wednesday. I-10 TX, I-35 TX Austin.

• 🌡️ **East Coast heatwave**: Ends Wednesday. Below-normal temps spread across Southern Plains and Midwest Thursday–Friday. Reefer demand easing — small window for better rates end of week.

• 🚧 **Iowa/Kansas/Missouri**: Post-EF3+ outbreak road assessment ongoing. Check 511ia.gov and 511ks.org before dispatch.

**🚂 AAR RAIL**

AAR released the week ending May 16 data today at noon ET — first numbers covering the CVSA Roadcheck week and the start of the Kansas/Nebraska storm outbreak. Data not yet appeared on Railpace or AJOT as of this post. Will include in tomorrow’s morning update.

Last confirmed (wk May 9): 513,755 carloads + intermodal, +3.7% YoY.

**⛽ DIESEL / RATES — unchanged**

• EIA wk May 18: **$5.596/gal** (-4.3¢) · FSC baseline this week

• Van: $2.56/mi · Reefer: $2.83/mi · Flatbed: $3.14/mi (DAT/FTR wk May 18)

• USD/CAD: 1.3769 (May 19 close)

• Next EIA: May 27

That’s it for today.

⏰ **Next update: tomorrow morning, May 21, before 7 AM ET** — will include AAR rail wk May 16 data, fresh WTI/Brent, NWS Day 1 outlook, and any overnight Iran developments.

All of this tracked daily at **pulse.ambry.io** — free, no account needed.

Sources: CNBC May 19-20, IEA May OMR 2026, Goldman Sachs via CNBC, OilPrice.com, NWS WPC May 20 4:00 AM EDT, SevereWeatherOutlook May 20, EIA.gov May 19, DAT/FTR via FleetOwner, AAR / Railpace, TradingEconomics

Wondering of the Freight Broker industry should adopt a standard for carrier hiring. It would put all brokers on the same page for the most part and act as a guideline for the vetting and hiring process. Please add thoughts.

Like my Lord, where are the flatbeds at??? lol

Big day. Iran, oil, rail data, and a cold front. Here’s everything in one place.

**🕊️ IRAN / HORMUZ — most important story for freight costs**

Trump called off a planned military strike on Iran Monday night after Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE asked him to hold off. He says Iran is “being reasonable” and he’ll give them until early next week to make a deal.

Hormuz update: some crude tankers have resumed movement through the strait — including a Vietnamese-bound Iraqi oil shipment. Flows remain far below normal and could deteriorate quickly. It’s not fully closed, but it’s not open either.

Goldman Sachs: every month the Strait of Hormuz stays closed adds **$10 to the year-end oil price.** That’s the math behind why every week of negotiations matters for your fuel surcharges.

If a deal happens early next week, WTI could drop $10–15 fast. Don’t lock in long-term FSC commitments today.

**🛢 OIL**

WTI closed yesterday at **$108.21** (+3.1%). Brent at **$110.69** (+2.6%).

Both contracts are up more than 54% since the Iran war began on Feb. 28.

IEA: global oil inventories were drawn down by 250 million barrels in March and April — a record pace. Saudi Aramco CEO warned Monday: if Hormuz stays blocked past mid-June, oil market normalization extends into 2027.

**⛽ DIESEL**

• EIA wk May 18: **$5.596/gal** — down 4.3¢ from $5.639 (surprise drop despite high WTI)

• Rocky Mountain anomaly: **+21.5¢** to $4.587 — likely storm-related supply disruption

• East Coast: $5.420 (-4.5¢) · YoY: +$2.060/gal (+58%)

• FSC baseline this week: **$5.596**

• Next EIA: May 27. Direction depends heavily on Hormuz this week.

**🚂 RAIL — AAR releasing TODAY at noon ET**

AAR publishes weekly traffic every Wednesday at noon. Today covers the week ending May 16 — first data after CVSA Roadcheck (May 12–14) and the start of the Kansas/Nebraska EF3+ storm outbreak.

Last reading (wk May 9): 513,755 carloads + intermodal, +3.7% YoY.

Watch for intermodal dips from the storm week. Will update this post after noon.

**📈 SPOT RATES** (DAT/FTR week of May 18 — latest)

• 🚚 Dry Van: **$2.56/mi** (+3.8¢ WoW, +44% YoY)

• ❄️ Reefer: **$2.83/mi** (+10¢ WoW, +39% YoY)

• 🚧 Flatbed: **$3.14/mi** (+8¢ WoW) — 19th consecutive week up, near all-time record

• 📊 Total: **$3.43/mi** (+39% YoY)

Reefer note: East Coast heatwave ends Wednesday. Below-normal temps spread Southern Plains + Midwest Thursday–Friday. Small window for slightly better reefer rates end of week.

**⛈ WEATHER**

• 🌩️ **Texas tonight**: Cold front moving south through N/Central Texas. Isolated hail 1.5”, damaging winds, localized flash flooding. I-35 TX, I-10 TX. Much quieter tomorrow.

• ⚡ **Ohio Valley PM**: Scattered severe storms along cold front. Wind + hail primary. I-65 KY-TN, I-40 TN-AR.

• 🌧️ **Texas Hill Country Wednesday**: Heavy rain threat. I-10 TX, I-35 TX Austin area.

• 🚫 **Iowa/Kansas/Missouri**: Post-storm road damage assessment ongoing from Monday’s EF3+ outbreak and Tuesday’s Moderate Risk flooding. Check 511ia.gov and 511ks.org before dispatch.

• 🌡️ **East Coast heatwave**: Ends Wednesday. Relief Thursday–Friday. Reefer demand easing.

**🌎 BORDER**

Post-storm normalizing. Iowa/Kansas road assessment ongoing — check conditions before cross-border dispatch.

USD/CAD: **1.3769** (May 19 close, TradingEconomics · Wise high 1.37715)

CBP live: bwt.cbp.gov

Will update with AAR rail numbers after noon ET.

All of this is tracked daily at **pulse.ambry.io** — free, no account needed.

Sources: CNBC May 19, Barchart May 19, FXDailyReport May 20, EIA.gov May 19, Goldman Sachs via CNBC, IEA May 2026, NWS Fort Worth May 20, NWS WPC May 19, DAT/FTR via FleetOwner, TradingEconomics, Wise.com, AAR via Railpace

⏰ Next update: noon ET today — AAR rail data (week of May 16)

Worked with some brokers for 15 years with no issues, ran over 2000 loads for some of them.

Now all a sudden they are putting in these new AI systems. I call in for a load and the AI just says “you cannot work with this brokerage byeee”

No way to get ahold of compliance, as soon as you call the broker the AI answers and hangs up on you.

At this point we as a team here have decided to just give ridiculous high rates for brokers who use ai

I've owned an MC since 2022, and we have a few agents working under it, myself included. Sales revenue is on track for 9-10 million this year with 14% margins. The thing is, I'm tired. I'm tired of scams, double brokering, the industry, and the liability behind it all. How do owners exit this industry? Any advice?

How many of you have enhanced your carrier agreement to include provisions for safety considerations? What about your RateCon? Are you adding verbiage about following 49 CFR §392.9 and §392.2?