![[SUBJECTIVE] Ratings from Round 17, 2026 v Geelong](https://preview.redd.it/3vt36w9x1lbh1.png?auto=webp&s=279a119064dea43b701c5d8fcbb0f348c684d02b)
Hipwood didn't impact too much but deserves some grace coming back from a long-term injury. I feel the Lester one might be controversial, he played well in parts but was responsible for multiple goals of Geelong's second quarter surge, they ended up having to move him off of Dangerfield.
Figured these threads can help generate discussion. IMO, ABC style ratings are too open to personal interpretation. Reville, Tunstill and Hipwood all still had good positive contributions throughout the game, this isn't an attack on them, this is just my subjective opinion from where I was seated based on my memory.
With Fremantle (and Sydney) flying this season, there's been a fair bit of talk that they're peaking too early and that it won't bode well for September, so I thought I'd check the ladder position of the eventual premier at the end of Round 12 from 2000-2025:
1st: 7 - 27%
2nd: 6 - 23%
3rd: 2 - 8%
4th: 5 - 19%
5th: 1 - 4%
6th: 2 - 8%
7th: 2 - 8%
13th: 1 - 4% (Brisbane 2024 lol)
Judging from this metric, there's a 50% chance over the last 26 seasons that the premier is in the top two by this point. And nearly an 80% chance that one of the top four teams at this stage goes on to win the flag. Freo, Sydney, Geelong and Hawthorn fans, cue the celebrations.
It's also interesting to see that, contrary to the popular narrative, the most common outcome of a season is that the dominant team at roughly the halfway mark of a season, does in fact go on to win the premiership.
I think there's a bit of selection bias, wherein we remember who was on top of the ladder halfway through far more than we remember teams in 2nd/3rd/4th that fell off and didn't win. Everyone remembers dominant teams who fell short like 2008 Geelong, 2024 Sydney, 2011 Collingwood (while conveniently forgetting that all of these teams managed to make it all the way to Grand Final day), while paying less attention to teams like 2022 Geelong, 2021 Melbourne or 2000 Essendon who steam-rolled everyone on their way to a flag.