u/SpACmAn2019

I’ve been following the Evernorth/Armada merger closely, particularly the warrant structure.

Three developments deserve attention:

1. The merger: The latest SEC guidance expects the business combination to close around October 9, with post-merger Nasdaq trading expected October 12. I haven’t yet verified a filing confirming completion.

2. Warrant amendment: On October 5, Armada removed the original 30-day post-closing exercise delay. The contractual exercise date is now tied to completion of the business combination because the IPO anniversary has passed. Registration and settlement conditions remain important.

3. Borrowing pressure: Interactive Brokers’ reported XRPN borrow fee reached 824.77% with zero shares available. That’s an extraordinary lending-market constraint, although it doesn’t establish current short interest or guarantee a squeeze.

Using Thursday’s XRPN close of $24.20 and XRPNW around $4.58, the warrant’s theoretical intrinsic reference is $12.70.

The question is how that spread converges after closing. Warrants could rise, common shares could fall, or both.

I’m particularly interested in the final capitalization, redemption count, registration of warrant shares, and when brokers will actually process exercises.

Has anyone confirmed the latest warrant-share registration status or transfer-agent exercise timeline?

This is materially different from what I had been modeling previously.

Armada filed an 8-K on October 5 amending the XRPNW warrant agreement.

The amendment specifically changes Section 3.2 by deleting the words:

“thirty days after”

from the exercise provision.

The filed amendment says the warrants now become exercisable on the later of:

1. consummation of the business combination

or

2. 12 months after the closing of the SPAC IPO

The IPO closed May 22, 2025, so the 12-month condition has already been satisfied.

That means if the Evernorth transaction closes on October 7 as currently expected, the contractual 30-day post-closing delay we had been discussing is no longer there.

The amendment explicitly says it was made to conform the warrant agreement to the terms originally described in the IPO prospectus.

This matters a LOT for the common/warrant spread.

Tonight:

XRPN traded around ~$26 after hours

while

XRPNW traded around ~$4.45 after hours

The warrant strike remains $11.50.

So if XRPN were actually trading at $26 once exercise is available:

$26 - $11.50 = $14.50 intrinsic value

versus a warrant around ~$4.45.

That does NOT mean XRPNW automatically becomes $14.50.

The common can continue falling, the closing still has to occur, execution/settlement mechanics matter, and post-close supply can change the common dramatically.

But the reason we previously used to justify such a gigantic warrant discount — “you have to wait another 30 days after closing” — has now been explicitly removed from the agreement.

And that may explain why the warrants are strengthening tonight even while the common is getting crushed.

This also creates a completely different dynamic for Oct. 7/8:

Before amendment:
Common could remain artificially scarce for another month while warrants sat behind the exercise wall.

After amendment:
Once the business combination closes, that 30-day wall is gone.

That means common/warrant convergence may happen much faster than we were expecting.

And importantly, convergence can still happen in BOTH directions:

XRPNW up

and/or

XRPN down

Tonight we are clearly seeing the second one happening aggressively while the warrant holds up.

The next things I’m watching:

• confirmation of the Oct. 7 closing

• exact redemption count

• actual post-close XRPN price

• how quickly exercised warrants can settle through DTC

• final post-close capitalization

This is the most important XRPNW filing I’ve seen in this setup so far.

If anyone sees another clause in the warrant agreement that materially limits exercise immediately after closing, please post it. I’d rather stress-test this than hype it.

$XRPN $XRPNW $XRP

Has anyone else been watching XRPN/XRPNW going into tomorrow’s Evernorth vote?

XRPN traded as high as $17 today after sitting around $10.5x recently, with volume jumping to about 3.7M shares.

Something I think is getting overlooked is XRPNW.

The warrants have an $11.50 strike, so once the transaction actually closes and the warrants become exercisable, the relationship between XRPN and XRPNW becomes much more interesting.

Example:

XRPN $15 → $3.50 common-minus-strike
XRPN $17 → $5.50
XRPN $20 → $8.50

That DOES NOT mean the warrant automatically trades there before closing. The common could also fall sharply.

What I’m really watching tomorrow is:

• Vote result
• Redemption numbers / remaining public float
• Whether XRPN can hold today’s move
• Whether XRPNW volume starts waking up

Anyone here following both tickers rather than only XRP?