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consequence.netIs there a term for media stories like Oceangate and Nancy Guthrie?
Sometimes non-experts and people who have barely followed a story can quickly guess that something went unfixably wrong, even while a devoted audience continues to tune in to every new "development." I've seen it enough times now to wonder if there's an established term for something like this.
I can think of a bunch of phrases that are similar but not right. It's kind of like a version of security theater, maybe search and rescue theater? It's maaaaaybe a sorta boiling frog situation, where people don't update their priors. It's kind of like the inverse of dramatic irony, where the audience who have been following the story don't know something everyone else does. With these stories there might be elements of missing white woman syndrome, though I don't think either fits the strictest definition.
This sort of story has been around forever, so there must be a term already in use, right? Please help me out, thanks!
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consequence.netHere's a bit of fun for the summer months: Packers breakout watch.
Who are the guys you are hoping put it together and make a leap?
Personally, when I think of breakout watch, I don't think of Christian Watson or Tucker Kraft, who have sustained elite performance when healthy. I mean guys who have looked good at times, maybe flashed great, and are at an age where they are still getting better.
Here are a couple of players on my breakout watch:
Potential franchise-changers:
LVN
Jordan Morgan
Promising, occasionally frustrating prospects at some of the most important non-QB positions in football. LVN had a pretty good pressure rate last year but got hurt, and while Morgan struggled at guard, he has looked nice in limited time at tackle. If either could sustain their peak performances for the long haul, that would move us a lot closer to another ring.
Secondary Shutdowns:
Javon Bullard
Evan Williams
Bullard low-key nuked the Nate Hobbs trade by becoming the superior slot defender, leaving nowhere for Hobbs to play when his transition outside didn't work out. And Evan Williams has already become a plus safety across from X. Both have been getting better, and if either leveled up again, that would be another serious headache for opposing offenses.
One of One:
Matthew Golden
The former first-round 1 pick is in his own category. Early in the season Golden looked literally lost at the line - at one point I remember Kraft moving him to the right spot. But by late in the season he was running clean routes and getting regular separation. We probably should have used him more. As a 1-2 punch with Christian Watson he could be a big problem for defenses.
Who is on your breakout watch?
Lets talk interior linemen snap counts for the first half of the season. In nickel, two of these guys will get most of the snaps. In base 3-4, I would guess a mix of these guys and EDGEs will play five-technique next to the nose.
Barring injury, Hargrave and Wyatt seem like locks to get the most snaps out of this group. Hargrave can play 3-technique, 5-technique, or nose, and we'll probably see him move around throughout the year. But here's my first prediction: Hargrave will mostly be playing nose. Maybe in the second half pc the season McClellan or Brinson will win that job, but as slowly as the Packers bring players along, I doubt either starts in the first half.
Second prediction for the first half of the season: Karl Brooks gets the third-most snaps in the position group.
Third prediction: in the first half, Warren Brinson outsnaps McClellan.
What are your predictions for this group?
Another post looked at the pretty crappy 2021 draft, but I wanted to add this one to the discussion. The front office already made contract calls on all these guys, so I think the timing is fair enough for an evaluation.
Quay: B. We got a solid starter, and his recent market valuation suggests we got a bargain for four years. We probably should have picked up his fifth year option, but he was just solid, far from elite.
Wyatt: A-. The list of DTs with this kind of impact on the passing game is pretty short. Shame about the health, and availability keeps this from a higher grade.
Watson: A-. Similar to Wyatt, he's been nearly elite when healthy. Arguably the most important player on offense beaides Love as the only guy who can take the top off the defense. Contract extensions for those two from this class are going to be tough.
Sean Rhyan: B+. He looked better at center than Jenkins and better than Morgan at guard. Versatile and has been quietly improving pretty much every year.
Zach Tom: A+ Elite tackle in the 4th. Great player and even better value for the round.
Romeo Doubs: A- He priced himself out of a second contract with us but our most reliable WR for a few years was a fantastic find in the 4th.
Kingsley Enagbare: B An impactful rotational guy on Day 3, even looked like a fringe starter at times. Less productive than Quay for us but better value for the draft slot, so he gets the same grade.
Tariq Carpenter: C. Not giving any grade lower than C for 7th rounders, even if he didnt work out.
Jonathan Ford: C+, was and remains a fringe roster guy [Edited, as comments pointed out he deserved a little better]
Samari Toure C+, got some playing time but it didnt work out.
Rasheed Walker: A+ Average-ish LT in the 7th is an insane find. Wish him better luck in his contract negotiations next time.
The FO is more than the crappy 2021 class or the great 2022 class, or '23, etc. Too early to say how 2026 will pan out, but some years we get lucky and some years we dont. The process seems to work more often than not, and this is what it looks like when everything breaks right.