[High Burn] 16 | The wolf did end up eating everyone
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“This is a… rather detailed photo,” Shachos murmured as he examined the image on Julia’s datapad intently. “Very detailed. Mhm… that trailing edge micro-serration pattern in the active infrared camouflage, as we expected. Yes, they did steal some of our technology. They did. You—you took this picture from your orbital missile sensors before it blew up their shuttle? Must be excellent optics to see through atmosphere so clearly without distortion!”
“Hm… Not… exactly, for this one.”
“So how did you take this picture?”
She came clean, clearing her throat. “It was parked on the ground. So I imagine we just got right up to it with our cameras and snapped one.”
“Parked on the—” His face turned red. “Ahahahahaha! You captured one?! You did?!”
“Yeah. That’s what you wanted, right?” She grinned. “They landed one last night before you made their battlecruiser leave, to try to get Karveth back. Rescue mission. Didn’t go so well for them.”
“Ahahahahahahah! Last night! Yes! That explains why they were taking so long to leave! So very long.” Shachos closed his eyes in satisfaction at the retrospective hilarity in his memory. “Their ship in orbit said their engine was broken. Then, they needed to check their radiators. And then, the warp engines wouldn’t activate. No, they would not. Their warp engines! They finally left after four hours of stalling, when we got into a good orbit to get ready to shoot at them.”
“That would have been interesting to watch,” Julia said. “But we were focused on what was happening down here.”
“What about your people? Are your people okay? Your marines—Marcus! Is his humor still in this galaxy?”
“Oh yeah, zero casualties. One guy was a little hypothermic, from sitting too long in the cold desert sand—he had a suit leak. Anyway, our guys are all fine now.”
“Good, good. And your colonists, too?”
“Yup, we lured them out to a remote area far from our colony. We prepared for this before we took Karveth. Speaking of him… unfortunately, I regret to report that Karveth perished in the chaos.”
Shachos turned yellow. “Hm…. Glonk will not like that. He will not. But… I do not mind so much. No, I do not.”
“In our defense, they attacked our colony again, so that’s really on them. But… we did get another prisoner out of the kerfuffle. And we did confirm our theory with Karveth before they—they got him killed.”
“Your theory?”
“Yeah, the reason I couldn’t wait to call you down this morning. The Karnolians are indeed preparing to invade you. Less than nine months, at most. If what we’re doing didn’t… expedite their timeline.”
Some green crept into the yellow on his face. “You’re still worried about that? Still?!”
“Yes. Very. We interrogated the prisoners. All three—I mean, both of them. They say the same thing. They’re ready. They’re going to come for your star systems. You guys need to get ready for them now.”
“War? Bah. They always say that! Yes, they do! It is like their version of our humor. Karnolian humor! Hah! It is only a little funny to us, but it is what they do!”
“I just—They are! Never mind.” She sighed helplessly. “They really are going to invade… I’ll get you the interrogation tapes.”
“Interrogation tapes? Of Karnolian prisoners?!”
“Sure. You guys capture them from time to time, right?”
“Yes, but not for a while. We do not fight wars often. Not that often…”
Oh, yes. We can tell. And your neighbors can too.
“So,” Shachos continued. “We do not get many Karnolian prisoners. They sometimes fly shuttles or ships over the border, but we just play harmless pranks on their pilots. And they are usually much more focused on each other. We have not needed to interrogate Karnolian prisoners for a long time. A very long time.”
“A few months?” Julia asked. “You said you had some intel they were going to try something.”
“Months? Hm… no.” The Vorshnik fleet master thought for a while. “Last was before my time. Maybe two hundred years ago? Yes, maybe. It was a long time ago. We do not just find and capture Karnolians every other day. It is a lot of effort to do it safely, and they do not appreciate our humor as much as you.”
She blinked. “Two hundred years.”
“Yes, two hundred years. Maybe more. It is a long time ago. Not within my lifetime, or the lifetime of—”
“Do you have reconnaissance into their territory? How do you know if they are building up forces? What if they are already putting ships in an assembly area?”
“We have sensors and telescopes on our border. But forgive me, I will not be able to tell you all about our defenses. Yes, we do not publicize those. They are not funny anyway.”
“But… not intelligence on the ground. No eyes on their interior. You haven’t even talked to one of them in a setting where they will tell you the truth! We have! You should trust us when we—”
“Yes. But Julia, we are good at reading faces and colors. Very good. And you are not. And you do not know the Karnolians like we do. How can you even tell when they are lying?”
“Well, I didn’t personally do the interrogations,” she said uncomfortably. “But the general technique is logical, especially when we have multiple of them. We ask them questions independently. And when their stories don’t match up, or when there are self-inconsistencies in their narratives, we dig further until we can discern lie from truth. Unlike you, we can’t rely on our intuitions to tell if people are telling the truth, so we have a lot of experience using good procedures and various tactics to derive good intelligence from logic and probability.”
Shachos turned orange and red. “Do you know the easiest way we can tell when a Karnolian is lying? Do you know?”
“What do you do?” She shrugged. “Do you play pranks on them until they give up their will to live or—”
“We can tell when a Karnolian is lying… ahahah! When—when—ahahahaha! When their—when their mouth is moving!” Shachos wheezed at his own speciesist joke even as his red became brighter red. “Ahahahahaha! That is when they are lying! Get it? Get it? Because they are always lying. That is why—”
She sighed in resignation. “No, I got it. Thanks, Shachos, I—I got it.”
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Brussels
“You’re telling me… that our commodore out there has gone ahead and started an interstellar war, all on her own?” President Salma Haldar asked in full disbelief.
“Ma’am, she’s reporting that things were already underway… She claims she had no choice.”
“Maybe—maybe Secretary Wilders was right, and I should have replaced her.”
Will snorted. “He wanted to replace her with someone more likely to start a war, except with the moonies.”
“Still… what if Commodore Julia Kessler starts a full scale conflict with the aliens all on her own?”
“She’s not that crazy.”
“She has access to hundreds of megatons of naval weaponry. Forgive me if I’m not comfortable with her being even a little bit crazy.”
“Part of the job, ma’am. Being comfortable is for the ignorant.”
“Ignorant—Forget it. How are the moonies reacting to all this?”
“They’re in election campaigning season. Most of our intelligence collection was focused on that, and we’ve been busy diverting all those resources… outwards. And the rhetoric they’re using right now—I recommend we take an understanding approach. They’ll have more—they’ll have more flexibility after Parliamentary elections.”
“If their nutjobs don’t win.”
“That’s why Farid is saying the things on television that he is now…”
The moonie prime minister had come out of the assassination attempt with a speech signaling appeasement and unity. Except it wasn’t aimed at their neighbors a light second away; it was towards the crazies who probably just tried to kill him. He urged calm and patience while the motives of the shooter were still under investigation. There was a whole “let’s sweep it all under the rug” feel to it.
It was clear to Union intelligence that the LLF had probably been behind it; the organization and effort was far more than a lone gunman, and there weren’t many other choices. The moonies were refusing to “rush to conclusions” while the investigation was ongoing, as if they were leaving open the possibility that they could blame Earth for it somehow.
It was obviously a wink and a nod to the more belligerent elements of his voter base, the ones who liked Farid because he was good enough at governing to build up Lunar strength, right up to the point where they could start a second war against Earth. There were a surprising number of Lunar voters like that. They tolerated his moderation and steps towards peaceful relations with Earth—surely Farid was only doing that while holding back Luna’s full strength until it could build enough for a strike. That little ambiguity also left Union negotiators and State Department officials with an odd taste in their mouths.
“Current polling data?” Salma asked.
“Within margin of error. Well, they have a… different system from us. There are seven parties in his ruling coalition, which is over eighty percent of their seats. So it looks like he has full support of his people whenever he does something. But… if the opposition gets over the threshold, two or three percent away, two of the ruling parties will defect. Then, their coalition falls and the LLF sympathizers and extremists will likely get a prominent voice in the new government. If that happens, we’ll need to do some maneuvering and kind of bribe them not to put the crazies in Defense, State, and Justice ministry for Cabinet roles.”
“Kind of bribe them? What does that look like?”
Will looked uncomfortable. “Well, bribes. It’s—yeah, we just give them money. There’s a bucket for it in the black budget. Anyway… I don’t know why I said kind of. We’d have to resort to outright and regular bribery. It’s not a lot of money. Anyway, Farid’s government is a lot closer to falling—a lot more fragile—than it seems from the outside. The internal machinations have gotten even less transparent to us since… since the war and they had to govern for real.”
“Ah.” She sighed, marveling at the complexity of the Lunar multi-party parliamentary system, and not for the first time. “Parties and coalitions. That’s… crazy. How do they get anything done up there?!”
Will snorted. “I think they say the same thing about us and the way our checks and balances work.”
“Our way has worked for far longer.”
“That’s because you don’t have to see the parts of our system that you don’t want—I just came out of a fishing rights dispute meeting with six Union Assembly representatives, and we are no longer allowed to serve Alaskan cod in this building.”
Confusion filled her face at the non-sequitur. “What?”
“You heard me. We are now officially forbidden from having Alaskan cod in the presidential residence of the Union.”
“They can make rules about that?”
“Don’t you love the gargantuan Union bureaucratic state?”
“Oh no, we’ll have to eat other species of overpriced imported fish!” Salma rolled her eyes. “It’s just fish, Will.”
“I liked Alaskan cod,” he said grumpily. “Stupid fishing dispute. Anyway, I’m inclined to agree with the moonies right now about their critique of our love of micromanagement and veto points. I bet they’re having Alaskan cod delivered to them up there on the moon.”
Salma shook her head. “Democracy. It’s messy, and there’s no perfect way, only a better one.”
“I thought we were supposed to have ended history a century ago,” Will grumbled. He sighed after a second, then refocused his attention on the moonie on his slides. “Welp, anyway. Look on the bright side. Farid could win big again. That is… possible. And presumably they’d learn enough to not have trouble with their Parliamentary security this time. If he does well, the rising tide will lift our boat too. It proves that your foreign policy doctrine is working, and I think we’ll get a boost in our own re-election campaign.”
She tried to clear the worst case scenarios from her head. “And Dustball? What do we do about our colony skirmish situation? Do we have a replacement administrator ready?”
“I wouldn’t be so quick to—she was attacked both times. And more importantly, she won despite the technological disparity. That’s worth something,” Will argued again. “Remember when we tested the Karnolian border response time a few months ago? They’re still far ahead of us in overall capability.”
“Except it might have been better if we didn’t win, no?”
Will shook his head. “That’s what a few of the experts are saying… They want us to roll over and show our belly. But we can’t know whether it’ll help. Time will tell.”
“These are just skirmishes on the ground. Kids playing in a sandbox. They’ll roll over us if they try anything in orbit. Our colony only still exists because the funny aliens in orbit are protecting their territory. We should get ready to cut our losses and get what we can get. When are we signing a deal with the Vorshniks?”
“It looks like soon. Either with the Sonckles or without. But… there may be a bigger problem.”
“The planned invasion of the teddy bears.” In her defense, Salma didn’t coin that. That was what the media called it when the report leaked. “Against the Vorshniks. How certain are we that’s going to happen?”
“That’s… hard to tell too. Commodore Julia Kessler says three to nine months, with high certainty of it occurring in her opinion. But she’s only basing her conclusions off moderate confidence assessments and… what her gut tells her.”
Salma hesitated. “What do the ORBCOM admirals say?”
“They’re refusing to contradict her. Same as the OMI. No one wants to be the sucker who missed the moonie uprising, again. But that just makes their advice useless to us in this kind of situation.”
“That’s frustrating. Don’t you normally have red teams for this?”
“Yeah, we do. Our red teams and the moonies’ are simulating the nightmares where all the aliens in the neighborhood gang up on us and blow up Earth and Luna.”
“What?! They’re concerned about that?”
“Oh, yes. Wouldn’t you be?”
“Well, now I am.”
“I think it’s safe to say that if it did, it won’t matter whatever we do. Anyway, the red teams are used to identifying worst case scenarios, not for assuring us that a war won’t happen.”
“Were none of them told the story of the boy who cried wolf when they were children?”
Will tilted his head. “But don’t forget what happened at the end of that story. The wolf did end up eating everyone in the village.”
“What version of the story did you—never mind.” Salma stared out the window at the city lights for a while. “Are you sure about the moonies? They’re taking this a lot more seriously?”
“Our spies say they are. They really are.”
She already knew that. “How seriously?”
“Well… I don’t know if it’s—there’s something that might not be relevant.” Will paused. “But… they might be building new warships. It might be a response to that.”
She sucked in a breath sharply. “What?! I thought they were doing refits and conversions for their warp ships from the hundreds of spare hulls they have! We both just drew down from a massive orbital war! How could they possibly need to lay down new warship hulls at this point?!”
“It might be their regular intelligence stovepiping, but OMI Director Clara Powell claims the moonies have started a crash program for a new class design. We’re getting very few details about it, but one of our L2 Black Sky spy sats caught increased activity at one of their dark side shipyards. Whole new slipways.”
“But… building new warships… that could—that could also be for us, not for this—this planned teddy bear invasion.”
He looked glumly back at her. “Yeah. It could.”
She stared out into the dark, seeing her years of hard work on normalization and post-war peace efforts circling the drain. “So… we’re stuck down here hoping, praying… that the moonies are indeed building up their tonnage… for a massive, interstellar war that could threaten our whole species’ existence? And not… for attacking us?”
“Huh. I guess we are.”
Salma didn’t say anything for a long while.
Will cleared his throat. “Do you want me to get Director Powell for you?”
She shook her head. “No. I’ve made my decision. Call Battlestar Four. Recall Commodore Julia Kessler to Earth on the next resupply.”
“Ma’am, I’d really ask you to reconsider. We don’t have a viable replacement that the Assembly will confirm, and it’ll destroy any relationships we’ve already built up—”
“It’s not… forever. Just calling her back here for an in-person briefing so we can decide what to do, Will. This two-plus week delay for every question and answer isn’t cutting it for me. If there’s even the slimmest chance I’m going to send our young people to war for the second time in a generation, I need to know where they’re going. I want to see her face-to-face again. I want to look into the eyes of the woman who’s going to be leading it from the front. To see that she’s as serious about it as I am.”
“I still think—understood, ma’am. But what if the colony needs her now?”
“I’m sure her substitute can handle the job there in the meantime. I’m sure she’s got that all figured out by now. If not, then maybe she’s not the person to do it after all. Call her back to Earth.”
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