u/SpreadsEnjoyer

USDA June Acreage report

USDA just dropped the June Acreage report. A few comments :

Corn: acres held firm at 95.3M, basically unchanged from March intentions and above trade expectations. The more interesting number is June 1 stocks at 5.29 billion bushels below estimates, which implies demand has been stronger than the market expected. That’s a small bullish signal on the demand side even with large acreage.

Soybeans: came in at 85.4M acres, above both March intentions and trade guesses. More supply coming, but domestic crush demand remains strong. A mixed picture.

Wheat: the one that stands out. Acreage dropped to 42.7M below March, below trade estimates, and continuing a multiyear downtrend. Old crop stocks also came in light at 920M bushels vs 934M expected. Both acreage and stocks on the bearish supply side market reacted accordingly with wheat futures leading the rally.

From a spread perspective, the wheat supply tightness is the most structurally interesting number here. Worth watching…
Curious to have your comments

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u/SpreadsEnjoyer — 4 days ago

Anyone else trade commodity calendar spreads?

Curious how many people on this forum trade commodity calendar spreads.
I feel it’s a pretty small world within futures trading.
Would you share your opinion on this technique? Strong points? Weak points? How’s your experience been?
What software do you use to pick seasonal patterns?
Thanks in advance for sharing!

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u/SpreadsEnjoyer — 8 days ago