At the moment, I do have a strong feeling that the F3 will be Sam, Oliwia and Lake based on the current narrative trajectory of this F8 so I thought it would be fun to see who would support who in this hypothetical scenario.

Lake

As expected, Lake would take the bulk of support amongst the eliminated contestants here.

• Manu (22nd) : Manu never interacted with Lake personally but even her positive vibes and Bruno's strong affiliation with her, I see no reason why he'd refuse to support someone as good hearted as her.
• Anastasia (19th) : She helped Lake process her complicated feelings about home and left her blessings to Lake by the end of her run. She without a shadow of a doubt would support Lake in the finale.
• Aiden (17th) : Aiden has been Lake's best friend since S2 and even went on trip with her post DCAS when everything was said and done. This isn't even difficult to decide, Aiden will 100% support Lake.
• Bruno (16th) : He idolized Lake from the start and slowly over the course of the run began to view her as a genuine friend who always had his best interests in mind and considered him her favorite player by the time he was gone. Bruno definitely is voting for her
• Dunia (15th): I feel with how Sam & Oliwia screwed her over paired with Lake's noble heart and ties to Anastasia, Dunia will support Lake out of the options left
• Ally (14th) : Ally was the hardest to pin down cuz I initially thought she'd go for someone who played a strong game like Sam or support Oliwia due to Benji's friendship with her. But I decided to go for Lake as Ally seemingly has a lot of respect for her grind.
• Tom (11th) : Tom should be self explanatory given the cyan alliance, their swim sessions together and them working side by side in the balloon merge challenge almost flawlessly. As someone who loves to judge others by their character, Tom would see Lake as the most appropriate winner.

Sam

Sam given his reserved nature would generally have the least amount of support and given his schemes, his reputation wouldn't be the most popular. However he would still have a decent following.

• Spencer (??): Spencer is Sam's closest confidant in the game who respects his cunning all the while harboring romantic interest in him as the merge continues. While Spencer would initially support Lake, his evolving connection with Sam would lead him to support him insteadm
• Alec (21st): In his triple greeting with Ernesto and Manu, Alec mentions that Sam is probably his favorite contestant left - pointing out his investment in game makes him the most tolerable. Alec isn't really big on Lake and he finds Oliwia strange.
• Finn (20th) : Finn doesn't really have a strong genuine bond with any of the three. He hates Oliwia for being bothersome and Lake's friendship energy would sicken him. He doesn't have a tight bond with Sam however because of them being in an alliance for a solid amount of time and Sam never getting on Finn's bad side, Finn would chose Sam as the most tolerable one out of the "poor options" in his eyes.
• Ara (13th): you'd be wondering why is Ara supporting Sam here despite him eliminating her in the merge. Ara herself seemed to respect Sam's level headed nature for the game across the premerge and quite frankly I just don't see her supporting the other two. She often berated Oliwia for sabotaging the team's success and laughed when Finn called her a "B**ch" in front of everyone.
• Fiore (??) : another controversial choice considering that Fiore doesn't seem to like Sam's attitude however much like Ara, it's primarily the options left that pushes her to his direction. I suspect Oliwia will gun down Fiore, leading her to despise the animal lover by the end and Lake has consistently targeted her across the premerge. Sam at least cooperated with her choices and currently she sees him in a neutral position.

Oliwia

She ended up having a solid enough support despite originally starting off as an Outcast, so let's go through each of them.

• Aubrey (24th): Aubrey quickly connected with Oliwia at the start of the game and seemed to be affected by the notion of Oliwia moving on without her when Finn tried to manipulate her in the comeback challenge. Plus she'd want someone to get back at Sam given her hatred of Scorpios.
• Ernesto (23th): Under normal circumstances, he wouldn't support Oliwia given his frustrations with her in game. However thanks to his revelation due to Ren, I'd imagine he'd sympathize more with Oliwia's predicament and support her for Ren's sake.
• Evie (17th) : Evie in the game qas relatively chill with Oliwia's profession and didn't bat on eye against it. So I could see her supporting Oliwia on that basis alone.
• Ren (10th): Despite their rocky beginnings by the end of his run, Ren genuinely wants good things for Oliwia and builds something new after they come to terms with what happened. Ren doesn't like Sam for obvious reasons and Lake while tempting doesn't really match his empathy for Oliwia's plight.
• Nura (9th) : Initially I had Nura with Lake especially with how Lake was the key to Nura pursuing her career as a playwright but Nura's friendship with Oliwia is too narratively impactful for me to side step. After all Nura was the one who helped Oliwia out when she was spiralling, accepted her weird quirks and at the end, tells Oliwia that herself is more than enough rather than what she gives others. Nura just blatantly dislikes Sam so obviously she ain't supporting him.
• Benji (?): Despite being recent to the friend group, Benji understood Oliwia's trouble mindset and tried to guide her through tough times. Benji in Episode 19 even thanks both Oliwia and Nura for allowing him to take the lead despite barely knowing him which made the otaku really happy.
• Gabby (?): the narrative is already setting up their potential friendship at the moment. Gabby not necessarily understanding Oliwia's mindset but recognizing the love she has for the things she enjoys with no one to really share it with much like her in the past. Gabby would initially side with Lake at first but by the end of her run, she's definitely supporting Oliwia.
• Natalia (?) : She has no real connection with Oliwia but I put her here primarily because of Ren and Gabby who understand Oliwia on an emotional level. Natalia clearly finds Sam frustrating and her beef with Lake will likely remain over the course of the game.

This is just my speculation at the end of the day, share your thoughts

Opening/Introduction

• I want to make a solid case for Sam's chances in the game. A majority of the community almost always place Sam as either 3rd/4th either due to most believing that he'll face a typical villain downfall as we've all been accustomed to in prior seasons. But I have some doubts that it'll pan out that way exactly and perhaps there is even a dark horse scenario for a winner 🏆. In previous seasons, DC villains had edits heavily foreshadowing a dramatic, satisfying downfall orchestrated by the heroes. In the case of Fiore by the hands of Miriam and Yul as seen with James’s turnaround against him in S2 paired alongside Grett leaving him to perish by the dragon in All Stars. While Riya herself doesn't get beaten by the heroes, she does have a downward spiral arc that leaves her in an unfortunate cycle of misery. Why is any of this relevant here for Sam? Because his narrative focuses on his calculated efficiency rather than active malice, Sam’s edit doesn't follow the common comeuppance setup as it instead frames his conflicts less as good vs. evil and more as efficiency vs. emotion. His cutthroat strategy operates more as a logical tool rather than a moral failing.

But what about the Jury?

• Now I understand why people would believe this is where it all ends after all Sam is portrayed as rather unpopular among the mergers paired with his initial antagonist framework. That said, as obvious as it sounds, Natalia is the more likely jury boot amongst the two. Natalia entered the season explicitly stating she wanted to separate emotion from gameplay and yet she continuously gets bogged down in personal feuds as highlighted through Anastasia’s departure/ Tom’s elimination where she sabotaged her team by throwing her vote and her taking advantage of Gabby’s personal issues to get her vote. Since her conflicts are loud and public, her downfall framework becomes a lot more prominent by comparison. With Sam being the first one to actually take advantage of her rocky position by taking out the bigger threats while letting Natalia crumble her game bit by bit.
• Quite frankly it would be underwhelming if Natalia escapes jury and Sam in turn gets the short hand despite the narrative particularly beating you on the head with it on every angle that Natalia's moves are very hit or miss. She had a perfect shot at taking out Sam as Ren offered to the group but decided to put more stake into the favorites, costing Ren control of his own game.
• This episode also sets up some entertaining dynamics to explore moving forward with Natalia’s budding rivalry and Lake serving more as a potential character foil due to her opposing philosophy of the game puts in question Sam's. I'm definitely seated to see how both end up going as Lake and Sam will eventually be at crossroads soon enough. While I'm here, I know some have said Spencer is locked for the finale but I'm not super confident with that assessment given his support engine catalyst role in the trio for both Sam and Lake. That it's far more likely he gets snipped first in the group at 6th place or so. I've seen tier lists with both being in the F4 or F3 but given the more positive direction they are leaning into with their romance, I doubt they'll repeat an Aleheather total drama/Jaiden F4 situation.

What makes you so sure there's even a chance at all?

• Right now it's anyone's game between the fans and favorites. Though personally I'd like a fan to win given how much they've been on the backfoot from the favorite's greater majority advantage across the premerge circling back to the merge with only 3 fans standing tall against 6 favorites. Speaking of the fans, let's examine each of them one by one.

Oliwia

• I think it's apparent that she isn't winning as her narrative arc seems more disconnected from the game and could be fulfilled in the next couple of episodes. What Oliwia really desires is community and someone who can truly understand what it's like to be alone, which is where Gabby plays a pivotal role in finalizing the milestone for her story. Contrary to the hate she's been getting recently, I think Oliwia has grown on me but nevertheless there's no way she's making it till the end.

Nura

• Nura has the highest chance to win given her narrative focus post Dunia's elimination as the defacto protag on the fan's team and I can see the appeal as well given her aimless soul plot thread is picking up for the better. But I feel now after Lake being an outlet for her playwright career and Dunia's message about money not determining your ability to succeed, it seems less likely. Dunia was able to make something of her career despite dropping out of college and Lake, who was cut off from her wealthy family, found a stable income as a book publisher with enough dedication and hard work.

The Main Event: Sam

• Sam, unlike the previous two, played from the start and has consistently put more thought into a long term plan on the moving variables in the game to consider in spite of working with less than stellar foundation by comparison. Not much is known about his motivations just yet but we do know that this is incredibly personal to him which becomes more apparent with the clear link surrounding his husband being deceased. I feel with how late they are choosing to drop his backstory makes me believe he's in for the long haul after putting so much stock into it. There's a clear narrative reason for why Sam primarily sticks to Spencer given his guarded nature as someone who doesn’t open up emotionally to just anyone. With his budding rivalry turned ally ship and potential romance forging a plausible scenario for Sam to eventually reveal something about his life. It reminds me of Tess in S2, she is very much a loner and it was until she met the right people that allowed her to express herself - Tess begins to break the usual dismissive facade that she carries with others outside of Hunter and Ally. I feel his endgame arc becomes less about game karma and more about his willingness to open his heart again.

It could serve as a nice subversion that a stoic cold risk schemer that plays with risk and reward ends up changing in a positive manner rather than reheating the nachos that past villains have done. From the greetings, he does seem to enjoy Dunia as a person and I think it would be neat to see him work things out with her - if Ara was given a chance to make amends then the card isn't completely off the table.

Thanks for reading and have a nice day

With premerge completed, consisting of 12 players being eliminated, with 12/24 remaining for the following merge︀︀. It's about time for an elimination order edit,this premerge was divisive but ultimately intriguing (Merge has the potential to be the best in the series)

The Trio's plot is reaching it's end as Gabby's independence in addition to the complications with her father just makes it unlikely for her to go so soon. Tom breaking down Natalia's walls is supposed to serve her character depth moving forward.

That leaves Tom who's been primarily a support this season for both women much like Anastasia all the while keeping his whimsical spirit, wisdom and challenge prowess as the defacto leader/Glue.

In addition with the merge around corner, Tom's physical and social advantages become alot more threatening (Spencer has a greeting in which he highlighted that Tom was his biggest threat for his physical prowess and social skills across the boards)

I'd be sad to see Tom go as a fellow Tom fan but he did well soldier 🪖 and it's time to pass to the torch for your besties to take the stage 🥷🏾. Plus ironically it fits with the intro with Natalia dragging Gabby away from Tom when she tries to wave at him.

Before I go into Benji, I'll just eliminate the competition

Let's take a look shall we on the opposition

🌠♉Aubrey ❌ | 24th Her character is more or less a joke and the "potential rivalry" she has with Sam is undercut by the fact that Spencer is set up to be his rival. Losing her first friend was the thing that set up Oliwia's belonging arc

🐂 Ernesto ❌ | 23rd He was robbed but honestly I don't think he has anything else to show, he had a decent mini arc about becoming less stubborn and open with others. Plus it's very clear that his departure was there to push Ren's protag edit further.

🌞 Manu ❌| 22nd With Bruno out, his return is less likely. Manu I feel is someone who will get explored more in the motel/another season - Blood vs Water. He's supposed to be a chill guy who didn't really know how the game was played and paid the price for it . In addition his role was more on the support side, being a big brother figure.

🎭 Finn ❌ | 20th Finn is someone who can stir up drama and chaos so it's not surprising that folks would want him back. That said i don't see the point in bringing him back without undercutting Ara's importance and his vanity/poor challenge prowess make it even worse for him. Finn works fine not coming back, acting as an obstacle for Oliwia's continued plot.

🌷 Anastasia ❌ | 19th Anastasia made peace with her choices and grown a lot in-between seasons that her coming back is frankly not needed. It would severely undercut her supportive role in both Rosa's and Lake's stories.

🎬 Aiden ❌ | 18th He's dead in the water unfortunately, I feel Aiden just needs closure with the motel and him returning doesn't really contribute to any major storyline currently in the game. Plus I doubt that they'd eliminate him three times.

💼 Bruno ❌| 15th Love the guy but not only is he eliminated so late into premerge But him coming back would be a disservice to the drama his elim created with Lake and Spencer moving forward. He won the admiration of his icons and will likely take this failure as a lesson for a future season regarding his people pleasing

🔮 Dunia | ❌ 14th

Bringing Dunia back after this elimination acted as a major turning point for the season, especially for both Ren and Nura's respective arcs would lessen the impact

Benji is the only one with open ended plot point for himself to follow that can't be just closed through a model/comeback episode, especially since it's something that plagued him for most of his life (his best never being enough, his career chosen for him and a general lack of support system since Tristan doesn't live in the same area as him)

Benji's return also doubles as a support as well since Nura will be all alone after Dunia's disappearance and with their big fight, things being tense regarding Ara or Ren as allies Benji not only is a favorite of Nura's according to greetings but also is literally dealing with the very same conflict that her overarching narrative revolves around (two people on the cast who's inability to pursue their goals have left them in a negative feedback loop)

In our hypothetical merge cast, Benji has a lot of people to play off of His mini friendship w/ Gabby, his previous alliance/buds with Ally, potential to explore him and Spencer's bond post motel, Ara would be an interesting sound board since she is a dark reflection of Benji: Where the expectations of her parents build this fragile ego that makes her believe she's above it all Sam could be someone Benji suspects as the game goes on given how quick he was onto Jade who had similar gameplay but was denied due to Hannah's poor choices and well Nura speaks for herself on the connections between the two

I've seen some try to say Benji stands no chance cuz Onc doesn't care about him but this is just a shallow argument, they've been planting seeds for Benji's self doubt across the season (him telling Ally in EP 2 that he always struggled to do what he wanted to do, him admitting that he puts low effort because of how much he fears failure, his talk with Rosa mirroring his desire to create something of his own, his emotional collapse after his failures were realized to where he felt stuck in his thoughts)

Lastly Out of all the returners, Benji is the only one with a special additional animation effect

As you know each returner says that they aren't giving up in a cheeky way before taking the torch

Benji on the other hand, was the exception as they had him go to the motel as they focus on Benji's POV before turning to the rescue island side grabbing a torch - taking the leap of faith instead of letting the negative voices convince him otherwise

"But what about Ally?"

I think they were separated to have their cake and eat it (basically Ally gets to have a solid run from premerge to mid merge or so, allowing her time in the sun to prove she'll still got it from her last failings)

While Benji's return in the merge can allow him to take stage with his arc and have a good chance of making it far considering how underestimated he's be in the merge with more dangerous players being targeted instead (potentially being the first returner to make F3)

Heard this song and thought this would be accurate for Spencer : Bad at Love by Halsey Featuring all of his prominent pairings throughout this show, enjoy the edit

Wanted to make some edits of my own, not super confident in this one (chronological order wise but ultimately these people I feel are gonna be on the chopping block)

I didn't make the first merge edit yet but here's the order

• 18th: Tom (Natalia and Fiore see that Tom is catching out, cutting him from the game for being the glue that keep the cyan team afloat and by being massive physical threat)
• 17th: Ren ( A clear comp threat Sam needed out + Ara manipulates Nura into icing Ren cuz making your dream career a reality often requires hard choices which Ara will take advantage of)
• 16th: Natalia ( Rosa gets her vengeance best served)
• 15th: Nura (Faces out against Ara in a tiebreaker but fails due to Ara's greatest willingness to preserve, her arc finds a resolution and she wishes Dunia best of luck)
• Comeback challenge (13 people, 1 return back to 14)
• 14th: Ally (You might be like what the heck, yeah I don't think Ally or Benji is leaving premerge as of now given they are the swing votes and hold alot of power. People bring up Ally's frustration with Benji's passiveness but that doesn't automatically mean she'll eliminate him, it just means she needs to branch out to other people so they could have more options. She said that she wanted to be a loyal ally to people she trusts and Benji is now one of them (Aiden had a majority cyan Alliance which had them at the bottom of the totem pole hence why Ally was willing to turn against him cuz it didn't really have her best interests in mind moreso everyone else's ) {I'm assuming here Aiden comes back and boots Ally with in turn activates Benji's idol in the merge}

One of the Eclipse Trio is obviously going to leave

• Oliwia and Sam are not perceived as threats (with Oliwia having an underdog edit and Sam being the clever mastermind who's in good graces with the players of his team)
• Ara has a bad reputation + an outsider hence Ren/Dunia vote for her since they aren't working with her (Ara did join Aiden in bragging about having the power in their hands, when Ara points out they are outnumbered after the Finn vote - Ren and Dunia smile with glee. In general both are not very fond of Ara's mean girl aesthetic)
• Evie is safe cuz in Dunia's words, she has an advantage
• > This leaves Dunia & Ren as targets
• Dunia is staying for the love triangle drama
• Leaving Ren the one who has the greatest challenge ability amongst the group with their athleticism
• [Obviously Nura wouldn't vote Ren based off of nothing] Maybe Ara tells Nura that Life is always filled with hard choices but the only way to make your dreams a reality to take that leap of faith Basically play on Nura's vulnerability to get her to make the **right decision**

This decision ultimately leads to a fallout between Dunia and Nura, providing them more tension to their relationship Leaving Nura no choice but to run back to Ara for protection since now the others don't exactly trust her (but whatever it takes to change her shitty life will be worth it, is what she tries to rationalize to herself while feeling guilty on what transpired)