u/StormFreak

Hey Freaks! Hurricane Isaias (that’s pronounced ee-sah-EE-ahs) made landfall last night near Destin, FL as a strong Category 2 Hurricane. It was a “major” (Category 3) hurricane shortly before landfall, but weakened a bit on approach. This is the first hurricane to make landfall in the US in 2 years, and the second time in the 2020s that a Hurricane Isaias has made landfall in the US (the other was in August of 2020 in the Carolinas, and if you don’t remember that landfall, well, it was a bit of a crazy year). The high clouds that gradually thickened all day and the rain that we are now seeing in our area are thanks to the remnants of this storm, so let’s talk about any impacts in our forecast for the upcoming week! And then stay tuned for some other stuff!

The Forecast:

The ghost of Isaias is moving in to our area as I type this. While the system is post tropical, and will not cause any major hazards, it will keep things quite rainy over the next 24 hours or so, including during tomorrow’s Steelers home game. We could see upwards of an inch of rain, but flood concerns are low. As far as winds go, you may notice it being a bit breezy, but unless you are Chris Boswell kicking field goals tomorrow afternoon, it shouldn’t be anything to worry about. There will be a bit stronger winds in the Laurel Highlands, and as a result a Wind Advisory has been issued there. After tomorrow, dry weather should return with highs actually climbing back above 80 by Tuesday (Possible autumnal booty dew?). But don’t get too used to that. Chances for showers start again on Wednesday, with temps coming back down towards normal as we head into the weekend. Speaking of the weekend, there are some signs that we may be seeing our first cool blast of the season next weekend. If that transpires, we could see our first sub-freezing lows. Stay tuned.

Do you, uh, maybe want to hang out?:

With fall now in full swing, many of our local farms and orchards are hosting their annual fall events, and this year, you may have the opportunity to mix some of that fall fun with your old pal StormFreak. But, I want to gauge interest in such an event before going fully in on it. So here are the (possible) details, and if there is enough interest to make it work, then I will get it all finalized:

Friday Oct 30 - 6-9pm
Simmons Farm in McMurray
Cost would be ~$15 a person

The evening would include a hayride to a bonfire with marshmallows for roasting, fresh picked apples, and a playground area for any kids (or young at heart?). There will also be glow sticks/necklaces available as well. There will be crates at the bonfire site for seating, but you can also bring your own chair. Also, coolers and other food are allowed as well, but you would need to bring them on the hayride with you. This will be a great way to meet some other members of this little community, and while it will be a great opportunity to socialize, there will also be plenty of space to take a break if your social tank fills up quickly. And in case you are wondering, I am one of those weirdos that actually likes to set my marshmallows on fire. I enjoy a nice carcinogenic crunch with my s'mores.

NOTE: If this is something that you think you would attend, please let me know in the comments! If we get enough interest we will get everything booked and I will put out the final event information!

A few other announcements:

[redacted from Reddit post - these announcements venture more into what would likely be considered self-promotion so I am keeping them off here and limited to my Substack. I won't link it here in the post, but if you need help finding it, check my profile or shoot me a message. I will continue to post on here occasionally, but in the near future I am looking to ramp up some content that is best suited elsewhere (this sounds a lot more spicy than it is. There is no OnlyFreaks page to be found... sorry to disappoint all 2 of you). More so I am looking for a place to share more freely and interact more with all of you. So if you are interested, check it out, and if not, that's a-ok too. As always I appreciate you no matter where you read my content or how you interact.]

Final Thoughts:

This post is getting long, but if you are still here then I guess you are still listening. I know I have talked at length about the struggles I am facing in my mental health (and personal life), but this week had something different that I wanted to share and hopefully encourage you with. I had a moment this week where I realized I felt a very profound experience of feeling “OK”. I know that may sound strange and you may be wondering “Why was feeling “just” OK profound?” The reason is, in that moment, I found myself fully content with the fullness of that feeling. The feeling wasn’t met with an immediate “comma but” followed by expectations of what things were still wrong in my life, or what things could be better to get me closer to where I want to be, but instead I was fully OK with where I am right now. Period. End of Sentence. And it was good. In fact, I may have even felt happy in that moment of peace. I know it won’t always feel that way, but knowing that I can reach that point where OK is enough gives me hope to face another day. I hope if you are in your own hurricane, that you can find your way to the eye where the winds are calm, and it’s OK to just be OK.

Love Yinz <3

Song of the Week: Everything All The Time - Maddie Zahm (actually, this entire album has quickly jumped into my top 5 of the year, so I highly recommend it all)

Happy Monday Freaks! I’m back in the saddle and ready to present to you probably the best forecast of the summer… just in time for Back to School! But first, I want to talk about technology. As you know, I try to stay on the absolute cutting edge of meteorological technology, so imagine my horror as I saw this post on Facebook…

Behold… the future of forecasting.

AR? VR? Weather maps you can…walk on?!? How will I ever live up to this? Why be enveloped with the actual weather outside, when you can be enveloped in the loving embrace of a green screen forecast? Mary, Ray, and the others at KDKA can now live out their monster movie dreams of stomping their way through the Laurel Highlands leaving a trail of destruction and dewpoint temperatures in their wake. Forget Kong vs Godzilla in Hong Kong, we can have Petelin vs Smiley in Westmoreland County. And all of this is seemingly controlled with a… tablet? Hmm. It got me thinking. Is there any cutting-edge tech that I could get access to on a StormFreak budget where I too could feel fully immersed in my forecasting? As some of you know, in addition to weather, I also enjoy gaming and am somewhat of a Nintendo fanboy. One of Nintendo’s biggest failures of a console was the Virtual Boy This console promised to bring immersive VR gaming to the masses using stereoscopic 3D images and 32-bit graphics. The console was a flop for several reasons including the lack of games, eyestrain from using the console for too long, and probably most well-known is the lackluster color palette available to the system. See, the system was only able to display graphics in a monochromatic red color.

Mario Tennis on the Virtual Boy

But hey, retro stuff is cool again, right? And me being the ultra-cool weather nerd that I am, the idea clicked. So today, for the first time, I present to you the Virtual Boy: StormFreak Edition. I can now strain my eyes and see forecast models in eye popping 3D along with that vintage look that is oh so hip with the kids these days. Sure, it can be hard to discern some of the intensities and nuances on the maps with the limited color selection, and the raging headaches I get after a few minutes have to limit my time reviewing the models, but when it comes to forecast accuracy vs flashy technology, you choose technology every single time.

Eat your heart out KDKA…

Checkmate KDKA. Consider your AR/VR Forecast Studio of the Future to already be old news. With that said and done, let me pop a few Advil and give you the forecast for this week.

The Forecast:

New forecast graphic! - Will be posting to my ‘gram each week as well (is that what the cool kids say?)

This week will be gorgeous, with mostly sunny skies throughout the majority of the week. Highs will start in the lower 70s today but climb to the low 80s by the end of the week. Low temps will be in the mid to upper 50s tonight and climb into the lower 60s by the end of the week. That’s it. Seriously. At this point, any rain chances are small and would occur towards the end of the week. Here at my backyard weather station, I’ve recorded 10.4 inches of rain this month. I think we all can use a dry week, and my basement will appreciate it as well.

Mindfulness Monday:

I’ve talked a lot in my non-weather discussions about mindfulness and how it can help us reframe the way we look at things. I want to provide another quick exercise that I learned this weekend that I think is another great way to do that, and thanks to an acronym it’s easy for my scattered brain to remember. Before you start your day, instead of letting your brain immediately start focusing on the negative, find a way to be glad… or GLAD…

G - Gratitude - Think of something you are thankful for today. It may just be waking up today, or it may be something more substantial.
L - Learning - What’s something you have learned. It could be a new skill, something insightful, or even just a random fact that you found interesting
A - Accomplishment - What is one big or small thing that you have accomplished recently? When in the depths of depression, even something as small as tidying some dishes or “redding up” your room can be a huge accomplishment. Give yourself credit for that!
D - Delight - What made you smile recently? It could be something beautiful, something funny, or anything else that brought a smile to your face.

So, try to take a moment today and think about what you are GLAD about. Even if you immediately go back to being negative, you can at least say that you spent a few minutes out of the rumination cycle and thinking about the good in your life. And that would make a perfect accomplishment for the next time you do the exercise.

Love Yinz! ❤️

Song of the Week: Trying to Love You - Sierra Ferrell

I hate self promotion, but I'm really proud of this article. In this phase of life that has me often asking myself who I am, reading these help me realize I do have things to be proud of. If this whole "StormFreak" era ends tomorrow, I'm really thankful for it. And for all of Yinz.

Welp. The mask is off. Nice to meet yinz. (If you didn't know who I was already)

Hey VolleyFreaks! It's your friendly neighborhood StormFreak here taking a break from today's severe risk with a quick forecast for this weekend's Pittsburgh Grass Open 10! First, thanks to the folks from Pittsburgh Grass Volleyball for reaching out and asking me to do this forecast. As an elder millennial, and if I was actually competent at volleyball, I would fall into the Masters division, which I think is just another fancy word for "old", but that's ok, because I hear "old school" rules will govern the big court in South Park this weekend. This is the first that I've personally heard of this event, but this will be the biggest year yet with over 1100 players!

As far as the forecast goes, all things considered for a weekend in July, the forecast is looking stellar. High temperatures should be manageable in the low 80s, increasing to the mid to upper 80s by Sunday. Friday and Saturday should feature a lot of sun, so lather up with your SPF of choice. Sunday should also still feature some sun, but there is a slight chance of some isolated storms popping up around the area, but at this point the chance is small (30%ish). Also, if you or your lungs are concerned about wildfire smoke, I'm happy to tell you that the only smoke that should be a concern for this event are some hot serves getting smoked over the net (no sneaky net serves here!).

So good luck to all the competitors this weekend, especially those going for a piece of that sweet, sweet $10,000 prize purse. Most importantly have fun and remember to be a good sport. If you have read all of this and are thinking "hey, that DOES seem cool. I want to be a part of it!". Great news! Registration is still open for many of the weekend events. Even if you aren't playing, you are welcome to stop down for great volleyball, vibes, and delicious food and drink from Secrets Bar & Grill, Notorious BLT, and Bear Fruit Smoothies. And if that's STILL not enough game for you, then you will be glad to know that the South Park Game Reserve is near the tournament site (did you know they have buffalo there?). All are welcome! Hope to see you there. More information can be found on the event site.

https://preview.redd.it/wolsne1yjleh1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=65c533b24fdb14430699c2249403905837f3780f

Good Evening Freaks! Two enhanced risks in less than 5 days? Indeed, it is true. I want to say from the start before you spend/enjoy/waste/cherish your time reading this post, this may have a slightly different tone to it and will be longer than my normal severe weather updates. I’m feeling pretty frazzled (not just because of the weather) and I may come across a bit “grumpy old man who yells at the sky” tonight. If my mood had a festival tonight it would probably be named Pricklesburgh. Before I dive into things, I want to say there are still a lot of unknowns with this risk (just as with any severe risk), and I’m getting a bit burnt out by the hype. Not because there is not a risk tomorrow. There is (and if that’s all you want to read about, scroll down a bit) but the framing of it by the media is just… a lot. One example is the link that was posted tonight. There is some accurate information in it but the headline of “Multiple East Coast cities told to prepare NOW as tornado threat looms TOMORROW” makes me want to run through a wall like the Kool Aid Man (or the Juggernaut, bitch). I shouldn’t be surprised by such a headline from the Daily Mail, but still... I also saw this AI beauty posted by a local meteorologist today:

THE END OF PITTSBURGH

I’m not including names because I’m not looking to shame individuals, but the “tone” of this type of messaging is just all wrong if you ask me. First, for my fellow anxiety peeps, this is not exactly type of graphic that says, “have an eye on the sky tomorrow for a potential risk”, but instead headlines and graphics like this just scream “HAPPY APOCOLYPSE EVE YINZ”. Also, fuck AI. So now, let me just flip over to weather YouTube and see what’s being posted by two of the biggest creators… I’m sure there is a more measured take there… right?

https://preview.redd.it/kbm66p82uheh1.png?width=852&format=png&auto=webp&s=8827a8637aab38544e3b77df63c5412d373c6d8d

https://preview.redd.it/9724q324uheh1.png?width=881&format=png&auto=webp&s=c868e25240d6f296cea8e1101ac0ecc2409cf468

Fuck.

So before anyone pulls out torches and pitchforks, if you dive deep enough into these videos, articles, etc… there is accurate information to be found, and the creators are pretty well informed and educated, but it’s the equivalent of finding a venomous snake crate plastered with skull stickers in your front yard, and those brave enough to open it find an eastern copperhead in it. For my non-herpetologist friends, it’s indeed a snake that can inject venom, but a quarter of bites are dry (non-venomous) and even if a venomous bite occurs, fatalities are EXTREMELY rare. It’s about the messaging. So, I’ve been debating what kind of messaging I want to use to share. Tonight I’m going to speak in more statistical terms to try to look at this from another angle. Let’s dive in:

First, the key points, especially for my TL;DR crowd who don’t need additional detail

• Timeframe: 11am - 8pm
• Main Risk: Wind (58mph or greater) - Significant wind gusts of 75+ mph or derecho conditions NOT expected at this time. Secondary risk is possible flash flooding where storms linger. Low risk for large hail/tornado
• Location: Area wide, but models are differing in location of strongest instability/storm development. If you are in our metro area, this applies to you
• Confidence: High confidence in storms in the area, but lower confidence of severe weather. Ongoing convection over the Great Lakes tonight could hamper storm development in our area tomorrow, but overall atmospheric conditions are favorable for development.

Tomorrow there is an Enhanced Risk of severe weather. On the scale from the Storm Prediction Center, this is a 3 out of 5 and represents an overall risk of 45% of a severe thunderstorm occurring within 25 miles of any point in the risk area. What makes a thunderstorm severe? One of the following:

• Winds gusting to 58 mph or more
• Hail Exceeding 1 inch in size
• A Tornado

So, if you are in the enhanced risk for tomorrow (which the majority of the metro area is) you have a 45% chance of a storm including one of these things happening within 25 miles of you. So, if you live in Pittsburgh, as of right now there is a ~45% chance of a storm meeting the criteria of being severe happening in this circle:

https://preview.redd.it/h9qqml76yheh1.png?width=581&format=png&auto=webp&s=08c4121de7cae288298f52e035b8205f8bc52abf

As was the case on Saturday, the main risk continues to be wind (45%). The risk for hail (greater than an inch) is sitting around 15%, and the risk of a tornado is approximately 5%. So let me put it this way. Assuming you are downtown, tomorrow there will likely be storms in the afternoon, but statistically there is a 55% chance that any that form in the circle above will remain BELOW severe limits, an 85% chance any hail will stay under an inch, and a 95% chance that tornadoes will NOT occur anywhere in that circle. Read that again and tell me if you believe that headlines and messaging like we see are needed.

I know that was a lot, but I believe that there is power in knowledge and accuracy. Nuance is important in communication. I have talked to multiple people over the past weeks/months who are truly paralyzed at times by storm anxiety, and while we each are responsible for seeking the help we need for the storms in our minds, as compassionate people, we should strive to not do things to trigger others solely for the reason of driving engagement with content. Such is the case so often in our current culture, and it frankly drives me crazy. And yes, I know I say this as a minor content creator myself, I suppose, but I do my very best to communicate in a clear way and to not use CAPS and scary maps and logos to get my point across.

If you’ve made it this far, first thanks for reading what I post. We have a wide variety of folks in this community and each and every one of you are special to me. I know some of you are more interested in the scientific and more intense side of these storms, and I do hope to have more content focused on that, but given recent conversations with some of you, I felt this was a better approach for tonight. I hope if you are one of our neighbors who carry real fear and anxiety around these storms that this post will help you feel some sense of peace. We live in unsettling times, and many of us (including yours truly) are dealing with some real shit that doesn’t involve the weather. The last thing we need is to be dragged down a fear spiral by the algorithm trying to convince us of another weight to bear. Storms may come tomorrow, but Thursday will also come. This too shall pass. If things do get more serious tomorrow, I will certainly do my best to get that messaging out as well. As always, you (and I) are enough and are stronger than you think. Love yinz (and GET OFF MY LAWN).

Song of the Night: Beautiful Life - Switchfoot - This song has been a real encouragement in this season of life, and I hope it will be meaningful to you as well.

Hey Fr..(cough, cough). Sorry. Hey Freaks! Hope you are all doing well in these smoky times. Sounds like despite multiple local events being cancelled today, Picklesburgh (sponsored by Marlboro) is going on as scheduled. Am I surprised? No. But that doesn’t mean I agree with it. Here on my side of town, I’m currently basking in the delightful smoky air of my home office, where my PM 2.5 numbers have hovered around 140 today according to my monitor in this room. Still about ten times the recommended indoor limit, but about half of what’s going on outside. For science and my long-term health, I have brought my small air purifier into the office and am running it while I work on this. I’ll check it again when I finish this post to see how much it improves things.

Actual photo of me checking out last night's sunset over our fair city.

Thankfully, the insane 500+ particulate numbers that we were seeing over lower Michigan and Northern Ohio never fully transpired over our area. I guess that is one silver lining. The other is that by tomorrow morning the smoke should start to clear pretty quickly. Then our attention will shift to the storm potential. The Storm Prediction Center has increased our risk for tomorrow into the “Enhanced” range from Pittsburgh north. South of I-70, the risk remains in the “Slight” range. This enhanced risk is mostly to highlight the possibility of strong winds with any storms that develop.

As is always the case with severe storm setups, there are multiple factors at play. Here are the things I’m watching:

1. The sooner the smoke moves out, the quicker the environment can heat up and destabilize.
2. There is a possibility for some showers or storms tonight in the overnight hours (minimal severe risk). As is the case with other severe events, the longer the cloud cover from this potential convection sticks around, the less time the atmosphere has to recharge for the afternoon/evening.
3. There will be 2 windows for severe weather. The first will be in the 2-7pm time frame for Pittsburgh. This setup will be more scattered and could feature a few supercells, but the overall tornado risk remains pretty low for Pittsburgh, although a bit higher to the north. The 2nd window will be where the chances for more widespread storms (and a more notable wind risk) are more…enhanced (for lack of a better word). This time frame will be 8-11pm. The reason the overall risk is higher to the north is because of this timing. As usual, as daytime heating wanes, typically so does the instability that fuels these storms. By the time any complex of storms reach Pittsburgh, they may be getting past their peak strength, but that is impossible to forecast for certain.

Bottom line, and as I always say, if you are planning on enjoying the smokeless air with some outdoor activities tomorrow afternoon, have a plan in place if conditions change, and especially for the later window, have a way to receive warnings. For my anxiety friends, there have been some social media posts I have seen showing the big D… no, not that you sickos… there have been some posts hyping the possibilities of a derecho. I want to make this clear: Could this setup support a derecho? Yes, in theory. However, a lot of things have to come together and more often than not, it doesn’t happen.

Here’s an analogy for any of my sportsball freaks. In baseball, it is extremely rare for there to be a no-hitter, and even more rare for there to be a perfect game. Tomorrow, we have one of our best pitchers on the mound (Come on Skenes), and the opposing team batters aren’t great, but even still, the chances of everything coming together is low. Now if things are coming together and around 6PM (or 6th inning?) we are seeing a strong complex ongoing north of us, that is when things get a bit more sweaty and preparations should be a bit more urgent. But unless that happens, I urge you to just treat it like any other game (day), while keeping a side eye on the score (radar) and don’t let the anxiety overwhelm you. Your brain is just doing what it’s learned to do to keep you “safe”, but it’s being a little overbearing, and frankly a bit of a dick. There is no danger when nothing has even developed yet. We will be ok.

If you are writing off activities for tomorrow but still want a chance to get some overpriced pickle treats or watch nifty cars drive fast through Schenley Park or any other outdoor activity, Sunday is still looking absolutely beautiful. Sunny skies with highs near 80, lower humidity, and little to no lung (and soul) crushing smoke. Speaking of… After running for just over 30 minutes that I’ve been writing. My little air purifier has brought the PM 2.5 levels in this room down to around 95 and still dropping. HEP(A) HEP(A) Hooray.

Have a good wheeze… I mean, weekend. Love yinz.

Song of the Day: Breathe - Michelle Branch

This level recommends no outdoor activities until the air improves. This is about as bad as it gets friends. PM 2.5 values are approaching 300 across the area. Values are exceeding 700 near Cleveland which is just insane. Stay inside if you can.

If you like your pickles smoked, you are in luck today and tomorrow! Here is a short term model depicting near surface smoke from this morning through Saturday morning. Our Canadian friends are wanting to one up our emissions from the bridge demolition and Grand Prix cars with a healthy dose of wildfire smoke. Keep an eye on AQI monitors and limit outdoor activities if you are prone to respiratory issues. I go into more details on my "Hoagie pile" (If you are confused, maybe start by checking the link in my profile) about the smoke and the rain/storm risk on Saturday. I'll make another post here tomorrow if the severe risk becomes more defined.

Deep breaths are great for mindfulness. Maybe just do them inside for the next 36 hours or so. Love Yinz!

https://i.redd.it/kpsou66j8mdh1.gif