u/StrongAmbassador47

All of what I am about to say has no stats involved, and is all based on situation and Matt Harmon love.

A year and a half ago, Harmon was hyping up Reed to an absurd extent (wr1?, sky’s the limit)

Any reception perception follower knows Downs and Reed were guys ranked 10-15 spots above thier KTC.

This year, both have, as their main competition, a big paid guy who we’re not sure we can run intermediate routes (Pierce, Watson), a projected YAC monster at tight end (Warren, Kraft), and a top end rb (Jacobs, Taylor). Kraft is coming off injury, Jacobs is coming off being a bad person (allegedly!), and Pierce may miss time (which may be the biggest factor in Downs favor).

Edit: Pittman left Colts (111 targets), Doubs and Wicks left GB (131 targets)

First, I’m basing this off of what the hype feels like. Maybe I’m off. But Downs is wr36 in ktc vs Reeds wr46.

I get that there’s more coach speak in Downs favor, and they pass more. Is that it? Because I’d be tempted to argue that Love vs Daniel Jones 10 minutes off a torn achilles closes the gap a little.

Side note- no one seems to be the least bit concerned that Daniel Jones - who wasn’t a sure thing as an NFL quarterback this time last year, is going to come back from an achilles injury in nine months, which I think is a record for a human (not verified). Is it possible he’s not 100% throwing off the PLANT LEG he injured. I like Daniel Jones and every report says he’s on track- I know nothing and the Colts wouldn’t have extended him if he wasn’t great. I’m just amazed at this and hope it’s all true.

Sorry, I had to say that out loud once. Anyway;

What do you think- is Downs just a superior player, or is Reed a good guy to target for similar or higher upside? If pressed, I’d probably have to admit I’d take Downs first in a start up draft, but I’m closer than most-
I’m curious if there’s any holdover Reed fans out there who think it’s close? Let’s not forget Reed missed a lot of games last year with a collarbone injury, whereas Downs injuries have been of the more recurring nature.

Right now, he is roughly valued at a 2027 2.10 (KTC, DynastyCalc). People love the 2027 class, but it should be noted that in the loaded 2025 class you were likely going to get Legette, Corum, Polk, Jaylen Wright in that range (no one really picked Bucky til later)

I know people don't pay attention to strength of schedule much when evaluating a player, but in my opinion, when it is extreme, it's possible you should:

Last year, JK Dobbins had 7/10 games against bottom 10 run defenses. And he was miserable against the 3 good defenses. (1.6, 1, and 2.5 yards per carry)

Last year, after Dobbins went down, RJ Harvey had 5/7 of his games against top-10 run defenses (KC, KC, GB, JAX, Chargers).

All of this is to say, I think people generally think of Dobbins as the much more efficient back, when I think it's at least an argument is that the success was in part opportunity based.

Side note that isn't indicative of future success - I know fantasy points don't equal NFL success. But while it may be totally justified - it is a rare occurrence to think that a year two RB, on a great offense, with a great o-line, and the same regime, whose only 'major' addition was a 4th round RB - and as a rookie scored 20 ppg in 4 of his last 6 regular season games, has had such a large value drop.

The other big argument against Harvey is that Denver was active in free agency for RBs. It's worth noting that:

a) they weren't active enough to sign anyone

b) with Dobbins health and Harvey's injury, they were likely going to check options pre-draft

c) after striking out(?) in free agency, they were so desperate to get a back that they rushed to get one at pick...108

Since January, RJ Harvey's value has dropped 29.8% on KTC and around 40% on fantasy calc.

Full disclosure, I sold RJ Harvey last year after the week 12 bye, so I don't really have a dog in the fight. But I'm interested in kicking the tires in other leagues is the price is right

So, is Harvey an interesting buy low at his all-time bottom value - or is he a falling knife - or is he destined to be a best-ball only option as a guy who has spike games but is in a crowded room as the situational pass catching option. Regardless, where would you buy him at?

Edit: because Reddit is a place full of sadness, I’m updating this post to reference ‘some experts’ liking burden over Egbuka- which by the way isn’t even important to the separate point of this post: Justin Boone yahoo, Kyle Yates yahoo, Scott Bogman fantasy pros, Jacob Gibbs, Pianowski, and much more.

At the very least, if Egbuka or Warren take off again, they'll be to go-to examples of why it's ok for a prospect to fall off the 2nd half of a season

Idea partly from hearing from the FF Dynasty talking about Warren vs. Loveland

The reason I brought this up is because from what I see the general consensus is that Loveland > Warren by at least a full round in startups, and that Egbuka is still valued over Burden by just a bit, but if you want ceiling, you'd consider the trade.

Either way, I think everyone would agree the 'hotter' names are Burden and Loveland, which makes sense. And interestingly (problematically?) they are on the same team.

And before anyone says Egbuka is way over Burden, I can say as someone who has an unhealthy addiction to Dynasty podcasts that almost half of them, including big/respected names, have Burden above Egbuka.

I'm not saying who I favor. I don't really know. But the point of this post is to say that it will be interesting to see if looking back, we use these test cases in terms of early year vs. late year rookie production, if one is present and the other isn't.

This won't be an in-depth, nerd stat, post. It's more to highlight that from what I found, it's pretty rare to have two potential top valued rookies at the position, that had either all their success early OR late, but not both. The key element of it being unique is that most rookies break out late - it's odd to have two top rookies (Egbuka, Warren) come out of the gates like a bat out of hell and then, just, stop.

Rookie year numbers:

Egbuka/Burden

Egbuka: WR23, 63 Receptions, 938 yards, 6 Touchdowns - - 3 top-5 games + 1 top-12 game + 7 of his first 9 games as a WR3 or better. STUNK the second half of the season

Burden: WR48, 47 receptions, 652 yards, 2 Touchdowns - - 1 #1 overall game + 1 top-10 game + his super game came in the last meaningful game of the regular season.

Egbuka obviously the better overall season, but remarkably isolated to the first 9 games of the season. Reasons for optimism (whether true, partly true, or rumor)- Evans gone, Baker was hurt last year(?), Egbuka was hurt last year(?), he's going to play the Z role which is better suited to his needs (Per Harmon, Bucs, internet users)

Burden obviously the better late season demonstration of talent. Reasons for optimism: Ben Johnson smoke, per route metrics, DJ gone.

As a side note- has there ever been a WR ranked this high in dynasty going into year 2 that has had exactly two good regular season games (don't come at me, yes I know, metrics, Ben Johnson, film!)

Warren/Loveland

Warren: TE4!!!, 78/817/4 - - - In his first ten games: 4 top-5 games, + 4 top-12 games. 8/10 of first games were TE1 territory. Stunk the 2nd half of the season. Although his stink stunk less than Egbuka's stink.

Loveland: TE12 58/713/6 - - - 4 top-5 games, no TE1 games besides those 4 finishes BUT also had a TE 1 overall level point total in the playoffs. First 6 games Stunk.

Reason for Warren optimism - - - He is from the Kittle/Kraft clan, the 'yac pack' if you will. He had an insane start and now they are moving forward without the target absorber Pittman. His target competition is Pierce (who is hurt and hasn't proved he can run routes under 20 yards, and Downs - who everyone is super sure is going to take a giant leap- Even if Pierce is magically ok and Downs is awesome, it's still the same offense where Warren went off and now Pittman is gone. Also, Daniel Jones will be back

Reason for Loveland optimism - - - He is from the Bowers clan. The potential perfect receiving tight end. Decent blocker keeps him on the field and can run all the routes. See all previous Ben Johnson notes. Late season break out, metrics, etc.. The Bears offense may be a rocket ship

So, like I said, I don't have a hot take here. Just pointing out the unique opportunity to compare careers of players who had nearly half-season worth of breakouts with insanely almost no overlap (early vs late)

It's early breakout vs. late breakout, counting stats vs. metrics, full season production vs. projection, floor vs. ceiling, etc. etc. etc.

If you have any comps to the Egbuka/Warren early breakout/flame out I'd be interested to hear it. There's a lot of late season breakouts with no 1st half production, but not a lot of the inverse.

Who ya got?

I run a 12 team, 14 week superflex. 3 repeat games and 8 unique. I was dissatisfied with the options I found to make it even, fair, repeatable, more nfl like so I did one manually.

I’m sure people can do this with ai but I liked doing it for fun, like a crossword puzzle.

Has anyone made a schedule or does everyone just go with the available options on sleeper.

I did a separate post on Bucky Irving and he is as polarizing as I thought. I’m considering trading Chase Brown for him because I also own Gainwell, and don’t like that Chase hasn’t been extended yet.

What do I need to get on top of Chase to send and offer for Bucky?

From what I’ve seen, the answer from most of you will be NO! Which is kind of the point. I haven’t really thought of Bucky as a buy, more as a falling knife. But generally when everyone is out in a young player that has produced, I’m interested in sniffing out the price.

Let’s get the cons out of the way:

1. Late round backs tend to have a good year then go away.
2. Kenneth Gainwell!
3. Health, both physical and mental.

The pros:

1. Late round picks tend to fall out of favor, but guys like Chase Brown and Austin Eckler show it’s not impossible. And in general I think that it’s understated that early round picks also fall out of favor. It’s about production.
2. Yes Kenneth Gainwell had a great year, and has a similar skill set. But KG partially had a great year because ARod loved him. Is it unrealistic to think we look back at this in a year and think ‘did I really sell my Bucky shares because of a Kenneth Gainwell signing?’
3. Bucky is expected to be cleared for training camp.

I think of Travis Etienne as a great comp. Two years ago was around rb8, dropped to rb32, and is back up to rb21.

Bucky was rb5 this time last year, and is now rb19. This was during a season where he was injured and the Bucs regressed and everyone (Baker, Egbuka) hurt in the 2nd half.

I own no shares of Bucky but I think of him like I think of BTJ- worth the cost of the buy low for a young dual threat back that has shown he can be an rb1.

Are you out on Bucky or can he bounce back and be a low end rb1?

My wr room is strong (Jefferson, Nico, Waddle, DJM) but I’m considering trading BTJ. Thoughts?

First of all, I want to hear your suggestions before my favorite grimy pick up, but:

But to me Erick All is a poorer man’s Jonathan Brooks at a different position. He was taking off ahead of schedule in a Bengals offense before he got hurt. Can he come back from 2 acl’s? I don’t know, Penix, Brooks, and All will all be facing that question this year. Yes, I realize All was a 4th round pick and my opinion is all based on his 4/5 game start.

Now, he’s flashing in training camp (I know, everyone flashes in training camp). The tight end room is old Gesicki and a few other guys. All is more of the blocking/receiving hybrid old school tight end that tends to stay on the field.

It’s more than likely that All doesn’t become a top 18 tight end, but at the price (free? 20% owned) I’m going to pick him up and hold him over, say, Trevor Etienne.

Who is your free waiver pick up that has a >10% of being decidedly not free in a few months or a few years?

My assumption is the general consensus is Breece my a fair amount. But it feels like the prince who was promised vs the one who has produced.

Pro Chase: he’s finished at rb 12 and rb 4 the last two years. One of which half of the season he did terribly without burrow. He had very little obvious competition and is in a better offense to say the least. His production seems steady as the ppr guy. Is this the Eckler of this generation as someone who always produces via ppr in a good offense? Breece has more competition.

Pro Breece: I’d say objectively more talented than Chase. And he has a 3 year contract to Chase being the last year of his deal. His rb finishes the last two years (11 and 17, average 14) is not that much lower than Chase’s average finish (8).

As a competitor, I’m planning on trying to trade Chase + a little for Breece, but I’m wondering if I should.

Where are you at?

Do you think this is too much, not enough, or just right to move up for Love?

I don’t have an obvious need at qb/rb so I’m looking to move up or out.