Red Cliff, a Hail Marry?
The more I think about it, the more this looks like a hail Marry from the allies' perspective. Sure, Zhou Yu and Huang Gai knew the terrain, but having the wind change direction at the right time is just crazy.
Yangze is also big enough that the local effect could overpower the seasonal prevailing wind near the shore. This means that not only the prevailing wind had to change direction, it also had to happen outside a certain window when the local effect is strongest.
In RoTK, this is solved by simply having Zhuge Liang perform a Taoism ritual. But it comes down to the allies' having better luck than Cao Cao.
Also, I don't get the logic of tying the ships together either. How could the ships maneuver, being tied together like that? Was Cao Cao trying to build a pontoon bridge with ships tied together like that? Was Cao Cao trying to build a floating island? What good would that do?