u/Substantial-Owl-9699

$MDA - Canada’s annual defence spending is projected to grow from ~$45B USD in 2025 to ~$97B USD by 2031, but analysts still expect just 11.8% annual revenue growth from the country’s only scaled pure play space prime with a $40B CAD (~US$29B) pipeline.

Investors still don't realize the extent which Canada has shifted its defence procurement stance and more importantly its budget.

Some notes that keep validating the $MDA thesis for me:

- Canada is preparing for $180B CAD (~$130B USD) in direct defence procurement and $290B CAD (~$208B USD) in defence-related capital investment over the next decade (almost half a trillion Canadian dollars combined!)

The government wants 70% of defence acquisitions to be awarded to Canadian firms.

It even listed its 10 areas of focus, with space (for the first time in Canadian history) finally being named as a sovereign industrial capability.

Alongside that, you have:

- A new Defence Investment Agency to accelerate procurement
- A $4B CAD (~$2.9B USD) BDC defence-financing platform
- A global Defence, Security and Resilience Bank likely to be headquartered in Toronto
- New government support for R&D, capex, exports, domestic IP, tax incentives ITB, etc.
- A framework to identify Canadian "defence champions" and commitment to an anchor customer model
- A global shift towards sovereign defence and space capabilities (non-US)

There is only one, nearly 6 decade old scaled, publicly traded, pure play Canadian space prime positioned directly in the middle - $MDA

And unlike almost every other public space company (aside from $SPCX), it's already consistently profitable but the entire market cap is $5.4B USD (vs. $RKLB at $66B USD, $ASTS at $36B USD, $PL at $12B USD).

It's already been working with the government for decades on the country's largest and most sensitive space missions.

Over the next year(s), you're going to get:

- Follow on orders for RADARSAT
- Contract award for ESCP-P (a massive > $5B CAD program)
- Contract award for for DESSP (another massive > $5B CAD program)
- Follow on orders Surveillance of Space 2
- Launch of MDA CHORUS and recurring data revenue (very underrated)
- MDA MIDNIGHT space bodyguard orders
- More antenna wins across allied constellations, especially from Europe
- Lunar robotics and surface logistics
- Telesat $TSAT follow on satellite orders
- New AURORA constellation awards
- Acquisitions
- International and allied sovereign space demand - it just inaugurated what seems to be largest capacity satellite manufacturing facility outside the US (around 400 satellites per year).

$MDA grew revenue from approximately ~$342M USD in 2021 to ~$1.17B USD in 2025 (a CAGR of roughly ~36%).

But consensus expect growth to slow to 11.8% from 2025 through 2029 with revenues reaching ~1.83B USD in 2029. To believe that you need to believe that just as Canada:

- commits nearly half a trillion dollars
- targets 70% of acquisition dollars to Canadian firms
- declares space sovereign
- prioritizes Canadian suppliers
- accelerates procurement
- finances industrial expansion
- pulls major space programs forward

that the country’s only scaled space prime materially slows down.

https://preview.redd.it/v2q4degul86h1.png?width=1478&format=png&auto=webp&s=749e6380bad0053594b8454fd0b047d4a1077634

$MDA - Canada’s annual defence spending is projected to grow from ~$45B USD in 2025 to ~$97B USD by 2031, but analysts still expect just 11.8% annual revenue growth from the country’s only scaled pure play space prime with a $40B CAD (~US$29B) pipeline.

Investors still don't realize the extent which Canada has shifted its defence procurement stance and more importantly its budget.

Some notes that keep validating the $MDA thesis for me:

- Canada is preparing for $180B CAD (~$130B USD) in direct defence procurement and $290B CAD (~$208B USD) in defence-related capital investment over the next decade (almost half a trillion Canadian dollars combined!)

The government wants 70% of defence acquisitions to be awarded to Canadian firms.

It even listed its 10 areas of focus, with space (for the first time in Canadian history) finally being named as a sovereign industrial capability.

Alongside that, you have:

- A new Defence Investment Agency to accelerate procurement
- A $4B CAD (~$2.9B USD) BDC defence-financing platform
- A global Defence, Security and Resilience Bank likely to be headquartered in Toronto
- New government support for R&D, capex, exports, domestic IP, tax incentives ITB, etc.
- A framework to identify Canadian "defence champions" and commitment to an anchor customer model
- A global shift towards sovereign defence and space capabilities (non-US)

There is only one, nearly 6 decade old scaled, publicly traded, pure play Canadian space prime positioned directly in the middle - $MDA

And unlike almost every other public space company (aside from $SPCX), it's already consistently profitable but the entire market cap is $5.4B USD (vs. $RKLB at $66B USD, $ASTS at $36B USD, $PL at $12B USD).

It's already been working with the government for decades on the country's largest and most sensitive space missions.

Over the next year(s), you're going to get:

- Follow on orders for RADARSAT
- Contract award for ESCP-P (a massive > $5B CAD program)
- Contract award for for DESSP (another massive > $5B CAD program)
- Follow on orders Surveillance of Space 2
- Launch of MDA CHORUS and recurring data revenue (very underrated)
- MDA MIDNIGHT space bodyguard orders
- More antenna wins across allied constellations, especially from Europe
- Lunar robotics and surface logistics
- Telesat $TSAT follow on satellite orders
- New AURORA constellation awards
- Acquisitions
- International and allied sovereign space demand - it just inaugurated what seems to be largest capacity satellite manufacturing facility outside the US (around 400 satellites per year).

$MDA grew revenue from approximately ~$342M USD in 2021 to ~$1.17B USD in 2025 (a CAGR of roughly ~36%).

But consensus expect growth to slow to 11.8% from 2025 through 2029 with revenues reaching ~1.83B USD in 2029. To believe that you need to believe that just as Canada:

- commits nearly half a trillion dollars
- targets 70% of acquisition dollars to Canadian firms
- declares space sovereign
- prioritizes Canadian suppliers
- accelerates procurement
- finances industrial expansion
- pulls major space programs forward

that the country’s only scaled space prime materially slows down.

https://preview.redd.it/cmlujyrpl86h1.png?width=1478&format=png&auto=webp&s=279afda7e6f28a348711bda2cb6207fc1f97a192

Desjardins Securities raises $MDA price target to $66 from $55 believing its current valuation does not properly recognize its “competitive advantages".

Desjardins Securities analyst Benoit Poirier has “increased confidence” in MDA Space Ltd. after hosting a group of investors for a tour of its Montreal facility and a discussion with its leadership team, believing “the current stock price does not fully reflect the company’s growth potential.”Desjardins Securities analyst Benoit Poirier has “increased confidence” in MDA Space Ltd.

“What a time to have one of the world’s largest and most advanced satellite facilities,” he said in a client note. “The global space market is expected to grow from roughly US$636-billion in 2025 to US$1.8-trillion by 2035, while lower launch costs should help support the 40,000–50,000 satellite launches over 2025–34. Against this backdrop, MDA’s addressable opportunity has expanded meaningfully, with its five-year bidding pipeline doubling to C$40-billion-plus. Meanwhile, rising defence budgets across the globe, combined with programs such as Golden Dome, Germany’s next-generation satellites and SSA initiatives, Korea’s K-LEO opportunity, and MDA’s SHIELD qualification, reinforce our positive view."

Mr. Poirier sees MDA’s Aurora platform as “a key differentiator” moving forward.
“It offers software-defined capabilities, digital beamforming, in-house ASIC chips, strong anti-jamming functionality and among the lowest estimated costs per sellable bit,” he explained. With competitors unlikely to deliver comparable technology for a few years, MDA appears well-positioned to capture demand from nations seeking sovereign space infrastructure with urgency. Following the recent pullback in space stocks, we view MDA’s current setup as a great opportunity, supported by a clean balance sheet and its ability to convert large C$1-billion-plus constellation opportunities."

Believing its current valuation does not properly recognize its “competitive advantages,” Mr. Poirier increased his target for its shares to $66 from $55, keeping a “buy” rating. The average is $62.51.
“The tour reinforced our view that MDA is well positioned to capture the high-growth constellation cycle, given its differentiated technology and new manufacturing capacity. As a result, we believe MDA deserves to trade at a sweet spot between established space/defense peers and new space technology peers. Our target is derived from the average of three valuation methods: (1) 38 times our 2027 estimated EPS (was 32 times); (2) 22 times our 2027 estimated EBITDA (was 17.5 times); and (3) DCF of $68.68,” he said.

On May 20, VP of Operations at $MDA Sylvain Riendeau showcased their product roadmap, INCLUDING a new/bigger Class M satellite made for use cases like D2D.

Roadmap:
- Class M satellite platform: larger, more powerful, flat satellite that is designed to fit inside a Falcon 9 fairing, built to address D2D.

- Class C update (Aurora V2): next iteration of Aurora, also faster and more powerful. Focused on making it cheaper and harder to compete against globally.

- Next-generation SAR: targeting commercial, civil, and defence demand

- Focus on end to end systems: recognizing the need to be embedded in the full end to end infrastructure of constellations.

- Focus on lunar infrastructure: including robotics, mobility, logistics, and surface systems

We still haven't had a PR on the Class M platform. Wishful thinking but hope it gets PRed with a constellation win -

$MDA

For some reason I can't upload the video - but here's my twitter link (vid included): https://x.com/alexdbanks/status/2061032187416174869?s=20

On May 20, VP of Operations at $MDA Sylvain Riendeau showcased their product roadmap, INCLUDING a new/bigger Class M satellite made for use cases like D2D.

Roadmap:
- Class M satellite platform: larger, more powerful, flat satellite that is designed to fit inside a Falcon 9 fairing, built to address D2D.

- Class C update (Aurora V2): next iteration of Aurora, also faster and more powerful. Focused on making it cheaper and harder to compete against globally.

- Next-generation SAR: targeting commercial, civil, and defence demand

- Focus on end to end systems: recognizing the need to be embedded in the full end to end infrastructure of constellations.

- Focus on lunar infrastructure: including robotics, mobility, logistics, and surface systems

We still haven't had a PR on the Class M platform. Wishful thinking but hope it gets PRed with a constellation win -

$MDA

For some reason I can't upload the video - but here's my twitter link (vid included): https://x.com/alexdbanks/status/2061032187416174869?s=20

Here is my pitch to $RKLB $ASTS $PL $RDW $BKSY investors:

We are about to enter the Great Canadian Space Procurement Cycle and you are not long the #1 beneficiary.

$MDA

Today you're paying roughly:

~40x EV/2029 sales for $RKLB

~11x EV/2029 sales for $ASTS

~18x EV/2029 sales for $PL

~6x EV/2029 sales for $BKSY

~5x EV/2029 for $RDW

and ~3.3x EV/2029 for $MDA

Taking the midpoint of those multiples gets you to around $85 or ~90% upside (keep in mind $MDA is the only consistently profitable one).

The crazy part is that these revenues are mainly existing contracts and backlog, while nothing of the real super cycle growth is taken into account. Analysts are projecting ~$1.85 billion of revenue in 2029 for $MDA ($MDA said they are ending 2026 at ~1.3 billion).

None of the estimate stake into account:

- ESCP-P (Polar): Canada’s Arctic SATCOM project. A >$5 billion cad program to be awarded to $MDA and $TSAT over the next few months (confirmed by $TSAT CEO, reiterated by $MDA CEO, and validated by Brigadier General Brendan Cook at Space Canada Horizon on May 20).

- DESSP: Canada’s Defence Enhanced Surveillance from Space project: Another >$5 billion cad program meant to replace/improve RADARSAT. $MDA is Canada’s RADARSAT/SAR heritage prime and RCAF said RADARSAT capacity is not enough for future military needs and need DESSP.

- RADARSAT replenishment/next-gen SAR: Canadian Space Agency said more is coming soon on the RCM replenishment satellite. This is a $1.012 billion cad program over 15 years.

- D2D neutral-networks: $MDA said it is developing a new Class M satellite platform, bigger and more powerful, specifically to address D2D. $MDA CEO mentioned during SATCOM show that MNOs, towercos, governments, etc. approaching $MDA looking for sovereign solutions.

- MSS spectrum access: In December, $MDA already applied for a broad set of Canadian bands, including L-band, S-band/2 GHz, cellular bands, and Ka/Q/V.

- Lunar rover expansion/surface robotics: CSA said Canada is pivoting toward lunar surface mobility and logistics, with potential fleets of Canadian rovers, cargo unloading, infrastructure assembly and surface robotics using Canadaarm. $MDA is currently one of 3 companies contracted by CSA for the Lunar Utility Vehicle concept work. On May 20, CSA mentioned new contract (follow on) awards coming soon.

- Sapphire replacement/space domain awareness: RFI already completed with RFP expected later this year for an optical system to replace Sapphire. $MDA was the previous mission prime here.

- MDA MIDNIGHT: space control defence platform for on orbit inspection, threat detection, satellite refuelling, cooperative capture/release and de-orbiting, etc. They're mainly bodyguard sats that protect high value space assets.

- ESA contract access: Canada committed $528.5 million to ESA programmes. This gives Canadian companies room to bid into high value European space work. CSA even assisting Canadian cos in writing RFPs to help win European awards.

- Product roadmap: At Horizons, $MDA discussed it is developing a bigger, flatter, more powerful satellite for D2D that is designed to fit into Falcon 9 fairing. They also mentioned they are working on V2 of their current Aurora satellites and moving more towards end to end constellation infrastructure.

On top of that, you have the Royal Canadian Air Force confirming Canada has 9 major military space projects representing ~$26 billion of committed government investment over 20 years, and that they have been told to accelerate it and move the majority of that spend "left". 70% of that amount needs to be spent in Canada!

You are looking at tens of billions of potential Canadian space procurement that is not being modelled by analysts.

Management already said the company has a ~$40 billion pipeline, including ~$10 billion of down selected opportunities, on top of its existing ~$3.7 billion backlog. And this excludes any future commercial constellation wins or international M&A which management said they are actively looking at doing in US, Europe, and the UK.

Every Canadian government official, CSA speaker, military commander and industry leader is saying the same thing: Space sovereignty is now a national priority. You have a massive Canada put on arguably the best positioned space co in the industry - $MDA.

🇨🇦🚀