Top players' chances of winning
I have been at a tournament in the UK this weekend. It's a fairly low-key 60 player event, but nevertheless had a few UK top-50 players in attendance. I noticed that, only 10 of the top 20 entrants (on UKBGF ratings), and only 5 of the top 8, made it through Saturday qualifying to the Top 32 Main event on the Sunday. From a quick spot check on BMAB these top 20 players have PRs ranging from about 4.5 to 7.5*. The top BMAB registered player (M1, PR 4.5) did not qualify. The four semi finalists' UKBGF ratings ranked them 18th, 20th, 36th and 44th out of the 60 entrants.
Is this a typical pattern in live tournament play, i.e. high-rated players seem not much more likely to come through than intermediates?
It seems strange than not one of the top 15 entrants (top 25% rated of the field) even got to a SF. This feels like either the mid-tier players have really stepped up, or the luck factor has gone wild this weekend! Interested in any thoughts...
*I suspect some of the BMAB PRs are quite out-of-date - I am certain that most of these folks currently play closer to PR 6.