With Exeter coming acropper, and four games to go (and therefore 20 points available for any given team), the landscape for what we need to do is becoming increasingly clear.
In order to lock in 4th and mathematically qualify, we need to get 7 more points than Bristol during this stretch. A win against them in our game on the 15th May would do the job as it would also max out the number of points they can get at 17, and as they our currently down 14 on us, with our 4 pts from said win that would mean that they could not catch us.
In order to lock in 3rd, we need 8 points, or 7 points including a win (due to tie breakers).
In order to lock in 2nd (The real key milestone here), we need 11 points. The H2H next week would count for double against Tigers, much like with Bristol.
In order to lock in 1st, we need 17 points. Depending on other games, this would realistically require us to win out.