Let's say AI works perfectly, and can do the same work a day human at half the cost. Just hypothetically. Let's say the Government then lays off all Government employees. Let's say that works, and all Government functions are executed perfectly, hypothetically.

The Government would now be forking out billions straight overseas, none would be staying in the country.

Then there would be tens of thousands of newly unemployed people applying for the benefit and tightening their belts. Less money, much less money, circulating through he economy. (Money velocity.) Even if AI is the solution it would require a UBI, and cost more, and send money straight overseas.

That's all, I just don't really hear about how AI is essentially outsourcing New Zealand jobs overseas.

I recently came back, I play on the NA server. I noticed that on Sat/Sun NA time the skill level I was playing against was lower. I had much more enjoyable games. Games typically lasted much longer, no one sided rofl stomps either way.

Are weekday players a combination of bots and sweats with no in-between? It's a bit fuck'in daft to be honest.

Hi all.

There's a post on r/NewZealand currently about amalgamation and it's reminded me that's a thing that's happening.

I was, even before forced-amalgamation, anti-amalgamation. I'm tempted to start a grass-roots campaign to fight it as much as possible. It will likely come to a referendum and I want to fight it at that level. Before I put any energy into it truly, I want to get the opinion of people in this sub and explain my case. I suspect if you lot aren't interested I'd be wasting my time.

Firstly a literature review of studies by António Tavares (2018) showed that (as we largely know) amalgamation trades of Government efficiency for democratic representation. So, inherently, it may be cheaper, but you're worse off in terms of democratic representation. This is the premise for my concerns and argument.

My concerns about amalgamation are:

1. That the increase in proportion of suburbanite voters will dilute urban voters and put a hold on cycle and public transport infrastructure over the next decade, at least, if not the potential for rolling back parts of the network.
2. Suburbanites fundamentally want something different from those in the city. A person living in Porirua or Lower Hutt probably drives into the city if they need to go in. Typically speaking, they want the city to be easily accessible, cheap parking, and easy to get around, by car. Fundamentally this is at odds with the average urban Wellingtonian who, typically, would want less car traffic and more easy access by car (this is what people keep voting for at local elections.)
3. The amalgamation of WCC, PCC, and Hutt City Council basically just serves to gerry mander and the demographics of how people live. For example (the data here isn't perfect). To show how wide that demographic shift is in terms of car ownership see the table below.
4. Denser urban cores have more rater payers per square meter. This means that denser urban cores typically end up subsidizing lower density areas when paying rates. Now that water is being split out from the council rates bill, Wellingtonians living in the city will likely their rates spread out across a much larger area than previously. There's lots of good articles on this. A VUW paper from 2016 by Adams & Chapman has some really good graphs. In Figure 1 we can see that per captia for roads WCC pays ~$0.07 per km of road per person. In PCC that rises intensely to ~$0.16 per km of road per person. That said, the data is old, and there's some, somewhat, contradictory evidence, but in large the trend holds across all densities. This also applies for water infrastructure, but that's since been amalgamated, and at the time was probably being under-paid for anyway. To quote Adams & Chapman "TAs [Territorial Authorities] of higher density have generally lower infrastructure provision costs per capita, a pattern consistent with the literature and sustainable urban growth principles. "

Rate of Car Ownership per Household	Wellington City	Wellington Region (Incl. Wellington City)
Five or more motor vehicles	1.10%	1.78%
Four motor vehicles	2.43%	3.54%
Three motor vehicles	7.76%	10.33%
Two motor vehicles	29.82%	34.85%
One motor vehicle	43.67%	39.45%
No motor vehicle	15.22%	10.07%

Source: figure.nz

Note: Wellington Region's car ownership includes Wellington City's car ownership rates. Within parts of the urban centre, car ownership is as low as 48% as per WCC's Jan 2026 report "The State of Transport in Wellington City - Full Report"

I know I used to be in the minority, but I am hoping that with the Government forcing this upon us that people are more open to the negatives for Wellington.

It is my opinion that human-friendly spaces cannot be car friendly-spaces (potentially part of the reason why Cuba Street is more popular than Courtney place, less Reading Cinemas). I don't know if the Government intends to dilute Urbanite Wellingtonian's vote due to cycle infrastructure, or anything quite like that, but this is be the major step back for urban Wellington in the adoption of cycle infrastructure. We see a similar thing having happened in Ontario, Canada where Doug Ford the State Premier is elected by a moral suburban and rural voter base, and is actively rolling back cycle lanes within the city of Toronto and by-in-large fighting against large Public Transport expenditure as well. Yes, that's a fairly extreme example, but it goes to show the power local democracy, versus the tyranny of a wider majority that doesn't actually live in the area they get to vote on.

Anyway, if you'd be a "Yes Vote" on amalgamation please say so. Reddit's pretty left leaning so if I don't get any traction here I won't waste my time. If you are convinced by what I've written, or have already been anti-amalgamation, please do say so as well. If you have any (good faith) questions, please ask. If you'd consider helping me feel free to flick a DM.

I also say this all as someone who no longer lives within WCC but PCC.

Recently moved into a town house near Porirua in Kenepuru, walking distance (10 minutes) from Porirua NW. I've walked there a few times and it's an alright walk, not too much time walking next to busy traffic so it's not too unpleasant, pretty average, on a sunny day I might even say it's nice.

The catch is, it's exactly one stop, e.g from the bus stop outside our house, the next one is New World, and on the way home it almost is, the bus only stops once more after at the train station which is all of 200 meters from the "New World" bus stop.

To take the bus yesterday (as a trial, because it was raining) was fine, except the luxury of a 5 min bus ride each way (maybe less) would have cost me (I walked down, bussed back) $3 off peak. If I dare take that same trip during peak times, $4.24 both ways, unless I make it back in 30 mins, which would cheese the transfer rules.

Three entire dollars for (according to google maps) an 850 meter, plus 1km (bus stops aren't directly across from each other) = 1.85km trip total.

For laughs, the trip down (850m trip) via taxi would only cost a base fee, not even a km charge as it isn't far enough. In total both ways a taxi would be ~$10.

To drive, would have cost me less than 50 cents in a hybrid, wouldn't need to pay for parking.

I dunno I just hate that we've built a society where we subsidize cars so much that they're not only cheaper with current fuel prices (unless you've got a gas guzzler), but they're almost an order of magnitude cheaper. Sure I'm paying for insurance, etc. on the car over time, but those are fixed costs, we have to have at least one car due to Porirua's inherent car dependency.

I was quite looking forward to walking and bussing everywhere, but it's not financially worth it. I'd save more money on food by just driving to PakNSave down the other end of Porirua, than I'd save on petrol by walking to New World. (It's double the time and distance and I don't want to spend 40 minutes walking to PakNSave with grocery bags, potentially chilled items being not chilled, etc.) This is before we even account for time.

Government plans to go back to the true basics. From now there will be a single department, Department of Internal Affairs, it will:

1. Register Births

2. Register marriages

3. Register deaths.

System is user pays ($1,999 per registration), hence no need for IRD. Parliament buildings will be leased starting Q2 2028.

Yea so this is an opinion some people have. I apologize for the paywall...

These people aren't Liberals, they don't believe in equality, let alone equity. A liberal would want equal opportunities for all (let alone Socialists who typically believe in equity.)

These people are conservatives, they hate you, they think you are a waste of money. They don't want to pay tax, they see the Government as a burden. They don't see how paying tax actively can benefit society and make the world a better place.

Do I think fees free was a good policy? Nah, not really, I think it was a shit compromise between fees free study and interest free, but it was a step in the right direction.

This Strategy Consultant probably realizes that if the bar for entry is raised, less middle-class go to uni, and absolutely less lower-class. This pushes down wages for low-skilled labour due to a labour supply increase. It would also increase wages for those with qualifications given time, further benefitting the wealthy.

Business-types constantly wank-on about how "unproductive labour is" - yet one of the best ways to increase productivity is to educate the labour force.

Jonathan Ayling (the person who wrote this opinion piece...) is illiberal (in the classical sense of the term).

If you need the assignment brief, I downloaded a copy of the webpage a few days back. You can download it at this google doc link:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_3FspQDUQqxD45jYK-zg0jJsVlJyQYYi/view?usp=sharing

If you don't trust downloading random HTML files I have three portrait desktop screenshots here:

https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1NsHcyCLCY3Ok41xofKsvp5o0P0XabXD_?usp=sharing

Breakdown of Total Stocks

Stock as of Wednesday 29 April (End of Day)	Petrol	Diesel	Jet fuel	Number of ships
In-country	34.9	27.1	31.4
On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away)	6.1	3.6	0	3
On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away)	11.7	22	27.3	9
Total NZ stock*	52.6	52.7	58.7	12

Comparison with Last Update

Stock as of Sunday 26 April (End of Day)	Petrol	Diesel	Jet fuel	Number of ships
In-country	36.4	27.5	31.8
On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away)	7.2	4.6	1.7	4
On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away)	9.3	14.1	15.6	6
Total NZ stock*	52.8	46.1	49.1	10

*Total number of ships in or outside of EEZ

Source, MBIE

Change in Stocks

Chart Showing Total Stock for Diesel, Petrol & Jet Fuel since 01/03

Graph that shows change in Diesel Stocks Stand Alone Since 01/03

Change in Stocks 01/04 - 29/04	Petrol	Diesel	Jet fuel	Number of ships
In-country	7.7	9.6	5.9	0
On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away)	2.9	-4.6	-1.2	-1
On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away)	-19.8	-3.8	3.9	-3
Total NZ stock*	-9.3	1.2	8.6	-4

Compared with Prior Update

Change in Stocks 26/04 - 29/04	Petrol	Diesel	Jet fuel	Number of ships
In-country	-1.5	-0.4	-0.4	0
On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away)	-1.1	-1	-1.7	-1
On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away)	2.4	7.9	11.7	3
Total NZ stock*	-0.2	6.6	9.6	2

Source, Me, Maths, Stored MBIE data.

Positive shows an increase in stocks, negative a decrease.

Petrol & Diesel Prices

Methodology: NPD's discount price until 28/03, then Gaspy national average accessed the night of the given date. 21/04 is an average of 20/04 and 22/04 as the data was not collected.

Raw Price Change (NZD, $) since 18/02/2026

Date	04/03	18/03	01/04	28/04	04/05
91	0.04	0.61	0.925	0.761	0.77
95	0.04	0.63	0.976	0.808	0.814
98/100	0.04	0.63	0.913	0.781	0.78
Diesel	0.04	1	1.747	1.538	1.48

Percentage Price Change since 18/02/2026

Date	04/03	18/03	01/04	28/04	04/05
91	1.59%	24.30%	36.85%	30.319%	30.68%
95	1.50%	23.68%	36.69%	30.376%	30.60%
98/100	1.41%	22.18%	32.15%	27.500%	27.46%
Diesel	2.23%	55.87%	97.60%	85.922%	82.68%

I cannot add graphs here, I highly recommend viewing these.

Raw Price Data

Percentage Change Data

My Commentary

Domestic Prices

These are beginning to rise again. Diesel (3.27) dropped back below 91 (3.28) for the today. That said, Diesel was cheaper on the 30th at 3.24, it was just that 91 was cheaper then. This isn't a "return to normal." Still, diesel is down 60 cents a litre since it's peak.

Singapore & New Zealand Re-affirm "Fuel for Food"

Source. This is what I've spoken about before and this is it being 'triggered' - we should consider our fuel supply secure so long as Singapore can get crude which seems likely. That said, this won't fix prices, or net global shortages, just that we will continue to get enough for subsistence.

NZ Supply

Situation remains in a net negative trend for diesel and what appears to be longer 'dwell' periods between boats appearing on the 'register' that MBIE is tracking so to say. I still standby the potential for shortages later in the year. It will take a long time to run out as global supply is almost meeting essential supply and cuts have been made. (This doesn't apply to jet fuel, I don't track it.)

That will be all from me tonight.

Breakdown of Total Stocks

Stock as of Sunday 26 April (End of Day)	Petrol	Diesel	Jet fuel	Number of ships
In-country	36.4	27.5	31.8
On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away)	7.2	4.6	1.7	4
On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away)	9.3	14.1	15.6	6
Total NZ stock*	52.8	46.1	49.1	10

Comparison with Last Update

Stock as of Wednesday 22 April (End of Day)	Petrol	Diesel	Jet fuel	Number of ships
In-country	36.1	21.9	24.9
On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away)	11.4	13.7	12.5	6
On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away)	4.4	5.7	8.4	4
Total NZ stock	51.8	41.3	45.7	10

*Total number of ships in or outside of EEZ

Source, MBIE

Change in Stocks

Chart Showing Total Stock for Diesel, Petrol & Jet Fuel since 01/03

Graph that shows change in Diesel Stocks Stand Alone Since 01/03

Changes in Stocks 01/04-26/04	Petrol	Diesel	Jet fuel	Number of ships
In-country	9.2	10	6.3	0
On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away)	4	-3.6	0.5	0
On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away)	-22.2	-11.7	-7.8	-6
Total NZ stock*	-9.1	-5.4	-1	-6

With Most Recent Update:

Changes in Stocks 22/04 - 26/04	Petrol	Diesel	Jet fuel	Number of ships
In-country	0.3	5.6	6.9	0
On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away)	-4.2	-9.1	-10.8	-2
On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away)	4.9	8.4	7.2	2
Total NZ stock*	1	4.8	3.4	0

Source, Me, Maths, Stored MBIE data.

Positive shows an increase in stocks, negative a decrease.

Petrol & Diesel Prices

Methodology: NPD's discount price until 28/03, then Gaspy national average accessed the night of the given date. 21/04 is an average of 20/04 and 22/04 as the data was not collected.

Raw Price Change (NZD, $) since 18/02/2026

Date	04/03	18/03	01/04	14/04	28/04
91	0.04	0.61	0.925	0.964	0.761
95	0.04	0.63	0.976	1.016	0.808
98/100	0.04	0.63	0.913	0.980	0.781
Diesel	0.04	1	1.747	2.102	1.538

Percentage Price Change since 18/02/2026

Date	04/03	18/03	01/04	14/04	28/04
91	1.59%	24.30%	36.85%	38.406%	30.319%
95	1.50%	23.68%	36.69%	38.195%	30.376%
98/100	1.41%	22.18%	32.15%	34.507%	27.500%
Diesel	2.23%	55.87%	97.60%	117.430%	85.922%

I cannot add graphs here, I highly recommend viewing these.

Raw Price Data

Percentage Change Data

My Commentary

Sorry, I'm late!

Domestic Fuel Prices

Quickly just want to acknowledge that diesel is back below the Price of 95, and on the way to be under 91. I'm not precisely sure what is causing diesel prices to slump so fast in comparison with petrol, I am assuming it's related to decreased refinery margins, planned OPEC+ output increases as well as Seasonal Changes, all of which were discussed in my last update, available here.

United Arab Emirates Quits OPEC

This is quite substantial news, but I don't think anyone knows how this will play out. The UAE is unable to export more than 50% of it's typical production, it does have a pipeline that bypasses the Strait, but it can only transport so much. The UAE has already reduced production. Why leave OPEC? We don't know. It's possible they are thinking longer term and they see this as a way to ally closer with the USA and Israel, or they are thinking short term and see a way to export/sell more or at a higher price. It may be simpler than that; Saudi Arabia is the de facto leader of OPEC, and the UAE and the Saudi's aren't the best of friends.

NZ Supply

Diesel has increased by 5 days since the last update, still leaving us down 5 days since the start of the month. Current trend (R^2 = 0.492) assuming it is linear results in a Slope of -2.92. So for every 2.92 days of real time we are losing a day of diesel. (I made a quite embarrassing mistake in my last post...) At this current rate that would leave us at Bingo diesel around late August.

Further Statistical Analysis of NZ Supply

I'm happy to begin using linear regression and statistical forecasts based upon that. With a 95% confidence interval, but only an R^2 of 0.492, with the current available data we have anywhere from 85 to 259 days of diesel remaining. The longer into the future we go the more likely outside variable impact these forecasts.

There is also a significant & strong negative correlation between "Days Since Start" and "Diesel Supply Remaining" of r(13) = -.70, p = .004

Linear Regression

Edit: I had to remove the linear regression table due to reddit not being able to format it correctly

I'll also add that the most recent increase in diesel by 5 days only decreased confidence in these forecasts by 0.2%.

I won't do these forecasts often, but I'm finally getting enough data points that I can, even if it is quite a wide range.

That will be all this time.

Breakdown of Total Stocks

Stock as of Wednesday 22 April (End of Day)	Petrol	Diesel	Jet fuel	Number of ships
In-country	36.1	21.9	24.9
On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away)	11.4	13.7	12.5	6
On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away)	4.4	5.7	8.4	4
Total NZ stock	51.8	41.3	45.7	10*

Comparison with Last Update

Stock as of Sunday 19 April (End of Day)	Petrol	Diesel	Jet fuel	Number of ships
In-country	30.5	21.7	26.1
On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away)	15.1	12.4	1.5	6
On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away)	6.6	8.2	19.8	5
Total NZ stock	52.2	42.3	47.4	11

*Total number of ships in or outside of EEZ

Source, MBIE

Change in Stocks

Chart Showing Total Stock for Diesel, Petrol & Jet Fuel since 01/03

Graph that shows change in Diesel Stocks Stand Alone Since 01/03

Changes in stocks 01/04 - 22/04	Petrol	Diesel	Jet fuel	Number of ships
In-country	8.9	4.4	-0.6	0
On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away)	8.2	5.5	11.3	2
On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away)	-27.1	-20.1	-15	-8
Total NZ stock*	-10.1	-10.2	-4.4	-6

Source, Me, Maths, Stored MBIE data.

Positive shows an increase in stocks, negative a decrease.

Petrol & Diesel Prices

Methodology: NPD's discount price until 28/03, then Gaspy national average accessed the night of the given date. 21/04 is an average of 20/04 and 22/04 as the data was not collected.

Raw Price Change (NZD, $) since 18/02/2026

Date	04/03	18/03	01/04	14/04	27/04
91	0.04	0.61	0.925	0.964	0.774
95	0.04	0.63	0.976	1.016	0.821
98/100	0.04	0.63	0.913	0.980	0.795
Diesel	0.04	1	1.747	2.102	1.577

Percentage Price Change since 18/02/2026

Date	04/03	18/03	01/04	14/04	27/04
91	1.59%	24.30%	36.85%	38.406%	30.837%
95	1.50%	23.68%	36.69%	38.195%	30.865%
98/100	1.41%	22.18%	32.15%	34.507%	27.993%
Diesel	2.23%	55.87%	97.60%	117.430%	88.101%

I cannot add graphs here, I highly recommend viewing these.

Raw Price Data

Percentage Change Data

My Commentary

Firstly, sorry I missed Wednesdays fuel update last week. Was a busy time.

Domestic Fuel Prices

Diesel & Petrol have come down significantly in the past ~2 weeks. From what analysis I am able to find, part of the original price hikes was likely due to panic buying on the behalf of crude buyers as panic buying subsides. It appears that our price is largely dictated by SGX PLATTS Singapore, which makes sense as it is where the majority of our refined products are originating from at this time. That said, the futures market for PLATTS is currently on the rise once again. Singapore Refining Margins historically have averaged ~$6 a barrel, more recently those margins surged to $25 per as traders began panic buying. It is this panic buying that has subsided, resulting in our lower price, not an increase in crude supply. So unfortunately, the recent decreases in refined product prices in NZ do not reflect a potential relief in long-term supply globally.

OPEC+

In early April OPEC+ announced the intention to increased production by the equivelant of 1.65 million barrels per day (bpd) over time, with 206,000 bpd by late May. Caveat being that Russia is losing its ability to export due to a war of aggression it started and is losing, and was going to contribute approximately 30% of that increase. These OPEC+ increases will take a long time to flow through, but also some of which (such as Kuwait) are still blocked by the Strait. That said over the next 6 months, even if the blockade remains, we should see a gradual increase in supply, but it will in no way make up what was lost, and largely be more expensive. That said, J.P Morgan predicts if the total volume planned to be produced is indeed produced, by Q4 of this year we should see Brent prices below $90 again.

Seasonal Changes

Positively and negatively, it is winter for us soon. The main catch here is the vast majority of the planets industrialised population lives in the Northern Hemisphere, as a result of increased sunlight hours there is a correlated decrease in global energy demands. While energy prices will hurt this winter for us, global demand decreasing will hopefully lessen the impacts of any potential shortages.

NZ Domestic Supply

Diesel is really starting to worry me. I highly recommend if you haven't checking out my diesel stock graph. There is a definitive negative trend of R^(2) = -0.494 - we have lost half a day diesel cover per day since 01/03/2026. This is inline with my prior concerns about diesel being the crunch. As I've said before, per barrel of crude Middle Eastern has more diesel in it than the replacement supply reaching Asia. (Oversimplification) At current stocks we have 80 days of diesel remaining assuming incoming supply to the country and diesel demand within the country remains equal. MBIE won't release the details of a ship currently loading to head to NZ, but a 'typical' tanker will probably contain only contain 5 days supply. It is possible that by the time we get near to running out of diesel the increased OPEC+ supply means we never need to ration - but is that a risk we want to take? If it ever even happens that way?

I'll add that Petrol doesn't concern me in the slightest, I continue my advice to switch from diesel to petrol, if you drive a diesel vehicle, ASAP. I do not follow Jet Fuel closely.

My Current Political Complaints

Up until this particular update from me, I've actually not really had an issue with the Government's communication. However. The lack of knowledge about what tankers are coming after this first and immediate tanker (which we still basically know nothing about) is starting to get a bit fucking stupid. Hiding behind commercial sensitivity isn't frankly acceptable anymore - us not knowing what's coming is potentially preventing the public from putting political pressure on the Government to act until it's too late. While I am a lefty I am by far one of the least skeptical when it comes to the Government "pulling the wool" over our eyes, but I am starting to get a bit annoyed with the bare minimum communication almost 2 months deep into this crisis.

Truck Weight Increase

Okay and? This would be the equivalent of during Covid-19 we just said "If you're sick, please try not to cough in public."

Until later!

Nuku isn't loading for me, "Requested IRL is unavailable"

Just me or anyone else?