u/TheJudger7

▲ 5 r/GraphiteOne_GPH+1 crossposts

New Site for Ohio AAM + Equity compensation

Graphite One Secures Ohio Site and Accelerates Towards EV and Energy Storage Battery Material Production with Advances in Offtake Pipeline -

Hello there.. as you may have seen, I try not to spam this sub with no-sense just to get daily views... news may be scarce but that's inherent to the state of the company.

So let's talk facts (first) and opinion (second):

We have this interesting update from G1 today and probably one of the most concrete Ohio-related updates we got in a while.

Key points:

  • new Ohio site secured in Conneaut
  • Warren site dropped because of power infrastructure/timing issues
  • direct rail + Great Lakes access + existing substation on site
  • Phase 1 target now 10k t/year AAM by Q4 2027
  • commercial-grade samples already sent to 3 EV makers and 3 battery companies
  • discussions for potential binding offtakes ongoing

To me the most important part is EXIM-related.

People often forget Ohio represented the biggest share of the potential EXIM support (~$1.4B out of the ~$2.07B LOI package). This update makes the Ohio case look much more concrete from a financing perspective:
site control, logistics, power access, phased development plan and customer qualification pipeline.

The company also approved new RSUs/options compensation grants. Not ideal for dilution-sensitive investors, but at least now we have a more updated picture of the cap structure, but again.. this is not fallin-off the sky. They stick to the plan and in such early stage noone should be really worried about it, provided they stay on track.

Bottom line: to me they're reactive and keep taking decisions in order to advance on schedule.

as usual.. do your own reasearch and share yourh thoughts!

.

reddit.com
u/TheJudger7 — 3 days ago

PPI almost 3x expected.. How PLUG is going to react?

so in my perspective a high PPI like today is usually bad for non profitable/cash burning company like PLUG ( due to a hawkish outlook over the money cost.. fed less likely to cut interest.)

I'm curious to see how it's gonna react today when market opens.. I mean if it stays above 3.5 or slightly less with such a macro.. wind have changed.

how do you feel about it? or am i reading uncorrectly the PPI outcome?

u/TheJudger7 — 9 days ago
▲ 13 r/WestWaterResources+1 crossposts

WWR Q1.. my quick take + link for the data

https://westwaterresources.com/investor/financials/sec-filings/sec-filings-details/default.aspx?FilingId=19436036

Well.. this was not a disaster, but not a fix either.

cash burn looked more controlled than I expected, and that is a positive. also they did not seem to smash the stock with heavy dilution in Q1, at least not like some feared.

but the core issue is still there.. Kellyton still needs more financing.

so to me the story has not changed that much. the thesis is not broken, but it is not repaired either.

as for Coosa.. I still see it more as long term value than near term catalyst. right now Kellyton is what really matters. if management talks too much about Coosa without giving real clarity on Kellyton funding and commercial progress, I think the market may read it as a distraction more than an accelerator.

so overall.. still alive, still moving, but still stuck on the same key point: funding.

May 13 call is the real test now.. let's see if they actually say something concrete.

not financial advice of course.. do your own research

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u/TheJudger7 — 9 days ago
▲ 37 r/americanbattery+1 crossposts

ABAT earning call and forward statement

(disclaimer..yes I used AI to write down my own thoughts.. but the content is mine)

link for the call: Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2026 Earnings Call

After reading the full ABAT earnings call transcript, I think the market may still be misunderstanding what this company is becoming.

This was NOT a “lithium hype” call.

Management spent the vast majority of the presentation talking about:

  • scaling recycling operations,
  • operational efficiency,
  • margin improvement,
  • industrial expansion,
  • and domestic critical mineral infrastructure.

The most important numbers from the quarter were not just the record $7.8M revenue (+64% QoQ), but the fact that cash operating costs only increased ~11%.

That is the real story here.

For the first time, ABAT achieved positive gross margin at its Nevada recycling facility. Ryan Melsert specifically emphasized that “many startups never get to” this stage. To me, that was one of the most important moments of the call.

ABAT increasingly sounds like a company trying to transition from a speculative lithium story into a real industrial recycling and critical minerals manufacturing business.

Another detail that stood out was the AI/data center angle.

Management explicitly stated that a significant portion of recent feedstock came from large energy storage systems supporting data centers and AI infrastructure. That potentially opens a much broader narrative than just EV battery recycling.

The company also confirmed:

  • $38.5M cash,
  • zero debt,
  • no ATM usage during the quarter,
  • and continued progress toward a second recycling facility in the Southeast U.S.

Meanwhile, the Tonopah Flats lithium project was discussed in a much more disciplined and less promotional tone:

  • DFS progression,
  • FAST-41 streamlined permitting,
  • environmental studies,
  • federal coordination.

No exaggerated timelines. No lithium price pumping. No overhype.

At the same time, risks absolutely remain:

  • the company is still net-income negative,
  • execution risk is high,
  • detailed profitability guidance is still missing,
  • second facility details are pending,
  • and dilution/share compensation clearly remains a sensitive topic.

But overall, this call felt materially different from prior quarters.

Honestly, this sounded much more like an early-stage industrial infrastructure company than a typical speculative lithium junior.

Not financial advice. Just my interpretation after reading the full transcript.

u/TheJudger7 — 10 days ago
▲ 7 r/WestWaterResources+1 crossposts

WWR: the 13G/A matters, but May 13 matters more

Westwater Resources, Inc., Investors - Financials - SEC Filings - SEC Filings Details

The new 13G/A looks more like a capital structure reminder than a thesis-breaker.

What it tells us is that Ayrton/Alto/Waqas are reporting 4.8M shares tied to conversion of a convertible note, and they’re now below 5% at 3.71%. To me, that’s not the same thing as “someone just dumped the stock.” It’s a useful reminder that WWR still has convertible overhang, which we already knew was one of the main risks on the equity side.

The much bigger event is the May 13 webcast.

That’s where management needs to answer the questions that actually matter:

  • Is Kellyton financing moving forward in a real way?
  • Any new commercial progress after the SK On setback?
  • How much cash and dilution hit in Q1?
  • Is Coosa still long-term optionality, or is it becoming a near-term distraction while Kellyton still needs funding?

My take: the 13G/A is mildly negative for equity quality, but not a game-changing development by itself. May 13 is the real test.

Not financial advice :just trying to separate what is noise from what could actually change the thesis.

reddit.com
u/TheJudger7 — 10 days ago
▲ 9 r/GraphiteOne_GPH+1 crossposts

Graphite One just released an update on the FAST-41 permitting process for the Graphite Creek project in Alaska.

https://www.graphiteoneinc.com/graphite-one-provides-fast-41-permitting-update-for-graphite-creek-project/

TL;DR: this is a positive update, but it should not be confused with a final permit approval.

The key point is that Graphite Creek remains “in progress” under the federal FAST-41 permitting dashboard, with the current target date for completion still listed as September 29, 2026. That matters because permitting is one of the biggest risk factors for Graphite One. Keeping the project on a visible federal timetable reduces some uncertainty around timing.

FAST-41 does not lower environmental standards or guarantee approval. What it does is coordinate federal agencies, make the process more transparent, and set a public timetable. For a small company trying to build a domestic graphite supply chain in the U.S., that visibility is important.

The bullish read is simple: Graphite Creek has not fallen off schedule, and the project continues to be treated as strategically relevant within the U.S. critical minerals framework.

The cautious read is just as important: this is still not a final permit, not project financing, not construction approval, and not a de-risked mine. The major remaining questions are still permitting outcome, possible environmental review complexity, Alaska execution risk, funding, dilution, and whether the downstream Ohio anode strategy can actually be financed and built.

For me, the biggest thing to monitor now is whether the process stays on the current Environmental Assessment path or whether anything pushes it toward a more complex Environmental Impact Statement. That would be a very different timeline.

Overall, I see this as moderately positive for the permitting thesis, but not a game-changing event by itself. The real catalyst remains progress toward the September 2026 federal permitting milestone, plus any concrete movement on funding, offtake, EXIM/DOE support, and the Ohio AAM facility.

But overall I'm very glad that the CEO keep communications on during this period in which we are patiently waiting

Don't forget you can monitor the FAST-41 for G1 directly from the subreddit - resources panel (direct link)

reddit.com
u/TheJudger7 — 24 days ago

Not financial advice. Just sharing my current view after digging into recent developments.

Over the past days, Graphite One has dropped to recent lows (~C$1.34).
Two main drivers here:

1) The equity offering (expected)
The company raised ~C$35M issuing ~20M shares at C$1.75 with attached warrants (C$2.25, 36 months).

Pure dilution impact is roughly ~10%, but the market reaction was closer to ~25–30%.
So part of the move is mechanical — the rest is repricing / uncertainty.

2) The USITC decision (unexpected)
The U.S. International Trade Commission ruled that Chinese AAM imports are NOT materially injuring a U.S. industry.

That effectively removes the tariff protection angle, at least for now.
This is a meaningful short-term negative for any U.S.-based AAM strategy.

I reached out to IR (Michael from Kinvestor, who specifically deals with G1) to understand their view.

Their response (summarized):

  • They acknowledge the ruling is negative in the near term (1–2 years)
  • The strategy relies on broader U.S. policy support (DoD, IRA, EXIM)
  • They believe long-term domestic supply chain momentum remains intact
  • They point to potential ESG / security-driven premium pricing

My takeaway:
This is a shift.
Before the tariff protection was part of the bull case
Now: it’s more about policy support + strategic positioning

Next step:
I’ve registered for the March 26th company event — I’ll share anything meaningful that comes out of it.

my position now is as follow:

Narrative hasn't changed. The fundaments of G1 rely on their connection within the territory, expertise and peculiar advantage on the AAM factory. within 2026 they expect to apply for EXIM and that will be the game changer.. so maybe this drop.. i'll add more

Please, share your views, especially from those modeling the downstream economics.

stay tuned i'll put the link and the summary after the 26th March event

reddit.com
u/TheJudger7 — 2 months ago