Buy rating from Roth Capital, with analyst Craig Irwin increasing the price target from $3.50 to $5.0
What do you guys think? Is 5$ even possible?? I can’t see this happening soon
Hey everyone, I'm a Plug Power shareholder from South Korea.
I waited three long, agonizing months for this earnings call. Raising a newborn baby leaves me with zero free time, but as soon as the transcript dropped, I translated the entire thing into Korean, printed it out, and read through every single line right away.
I think every Plug investor—myself included—was dying to hear about deals in the data center space.
Craig, you absolute legend! You asked the exact question we've all been desperately waiting for. If you had just asked it directly, management probably would’ve given a generic non-answer. But the way you set it up with that detailed, elaborate preface was pure genius. Because you laid the groundwork so thoughtfully and framed it just right, we got such a fantastic response from the team.
I doubt you'll ever see this, Craig, but on behalf of investors here in Korea, I really wanted to send our sincere appreciation. You made our day. Thank you so much, and stay healthy!
Seems to me they are making the right decision with this call. This would be a to large investment with a return in maybe 10 years from now.
Wenn die FIDs von Green Allied verkündet werden sollten, gibt es aus meiner Sicht kein halten mehr. Falls dann noch Shorties übrig sind, werden diese bestimmt gegrillt.
Lets go Plug Power
There was an implicit question about it during the earnings call but it wasn’t adressed directly by the management!
Material Handling:
Plug Power's material handling sector is experiencing strong commercial growth, highlighted by a 125% year-over-year increase in GenDrive fuel cell deployments to 1,666 units in Q2 2026. Two top customers plan to refresh over 20,000 units across three years, boosting 2026 revenue guidance to 15%-16%.
Key Growth DriversSurging Deployments:
Deployed 1,666 GenDrive units in Q2 2026, more than doubling the 739 units deployed in Q2 2025.Upcoming Replacement Cycles: Two major material handling customers are slated to refresh more than 20,000 fuel cell units over the next three years, securing predictable future demand.
Dominant Market Share:
Maintains roughly 95% of the market share for hydrogen fuel cells in the warehouse and material handling sector.
Financial & Operational Impact Service Revenue Expansion:
Aftermarket service revenue surged 82% year-over-year to roughly $30 million, operating at a positive 27% service margin.Guidance Upgrade: Commercial momentum in material handling prompted management to raise full-year 2026 revenue growth guidance to a range of 15% to 16%.Margin Improvement: Enhanced unit reliability and field performance have driven better overhead leverage, helping push overall gross margins close to breakeven.
Crespo's own closing words on the Q2 call: "Our priorities for the balance of 2026 are still the same, are clear. We're going to execute with discipline, keep converting our commercial pipeline, keep strengthening our liquidity through non-dilutive means, and deliver positive EBITDAs in the fourth quarter."
Three priorities, named separately, in that order. Most of this week's celebration only checks off one of them.
Question 1 - can they execute? Q2 said yes. Four dated promises kept: margin, revenue, cash burn, guidance. Equipment gross margin positive for the first time. That question is resolved, and it's a real result - #7 covered it in full.
Question 2 - can they get there without diluting? Still open - and it's management's own second priority, not just my framing.
To be fair to management here, not just cautious about them: naming this exact concern unprompted, holding to zero dilution with capacity sitting unused, and a quarter of kept promises are three real signals of restraint. Read together, that's a management team behaving like it takes the concern seriously - which is a real, checkable pattern, not a consolation prize.
These aren't the same risk, and they don't resolve the same way. Execution risk gets resolved by hitting targets - which just happened. Dilution risk gets resolved by cash actually landing without a share sale attached to it - which hasn't happened yet, for $223M of the plan.
What connects this to #6: cost of capital is the cleanest proxy. If the rest of that $275M comes in through asset sales (Gateway, tax credits) rather than the ATM, the dilution risk clock resets. If it ends up needing an equity raise to bridge any gap, that's the opposite signal.
One mitigant worth naming precisely, not just waving at: if positive EBITDAS actually lands in Q4 as management targets, that subtracts from dilution risk going forward - lower structural burn means less future pressure to tap the ATM. But EBITDA excludes capex and working capital, so "positive" isn't the same as "no longer needs external cash," and it doesn't retroactively fill the specific $223M gap tied to already-committed monetization deals. It lowers the odds of needing the ATM to bridge that gap if the asset sales slip - it doesn't substitute for them.
What would change my mind:
Homework: the $275M target and progress against it are in the Q2 press release and 10-Q subsequent events. The 3B authorized-share increase is in the June 11 proxy filing. Crespo's quote is in the full earnings call transcript, closing Q&A.
Figures from Plug Power's Q2 2026 filings, earnings call transcript and dated analyst commentary. Not financial advice. DYOR.
The catalyst tells us what might happen. The filings tell us what actually happened.
Trust and confidence is restored, I think 5 USD is a fair stock price until year end latest. 🚀
Shorts attacking?
• Q2 revenue $178.3M vs $169.1M expected
• Gross margin improved to ~0% from -31% YoY
• Cash burn down to ~$61M
• Service revenue +82% YoY
• 2026 revenue growth guidance raised to 15–16%
• Management still targets positive EBITDAS in Q4
• ~330M shares short / ~24% of float
• ~6.9 days to cover
Aftermarket run up: 11%. We need a clear break at $2.50. Trim at $3
Plug sold 17.4% less equipment this quarter - and, for the first time ever, didn't lose money doing it. Equipment gross margin: +1.9%.
That's the real headline. Everything else confirms it.
What was promised in May, tested now:
| Commitment | Result |
|---|---|
| Sequential margin improvement | -13% → -0.9% ✓ |
| Sequential revenue progression | $163.5M → $178.3M ✓ |
| Falling cash burn | ~$150M → ~$94M ✓ |
| 2026 guidance | Raised to 15-16% growth ✓ |
Four dated promises, four kept. Plus: zero shares sold under the ATM or SEPA this quarter - share count barely moved.
The one number worth checking yourself: gross margin includes a $15.7M service-contract benefit. Strip it, and Q2 2026 is -9.7%. But the same line existed in Q2 2025 too ($10.8M) - strip it from both and the real move is -37.0% → -9.7%. 27 points, no accounting assist.
Inventory passed the harder test. Both total inventory and the excess-and-obsolete reserve fell together ($516M→$493M; $149M→$135M) - product moving, not being written off.
Where I was wrong last time: I flagged "margins improving while burn stays flat" as the thing to watch. Burn fell faster than margins improved instead. Different failure mode than predicted - worth saying plainly.
What Q3 has to prove: management guides H2 revenue ~40% above H1, mostly equipment, mostly Q4. Same margin discipline at higher volume is a different test than this quarter's.
Homework: the $39.7M asset-recovery detail and the like-for-like margin math are both in the 10-Q, Note 2. Check it yourself.
Figures from Plug Power's Q2 2026 10-Q and earnings call. Not financial advice. DYOR.
Today's price swing - a spike, then most of it given back - is a reminder of why this scorecard never asked what the stock would do. It asked whether the promises would hold.
The catalyst tells us what might happen. The filings tell us what actually happened.
let's Go Plug First profitable hydrogen company in History soon🚀🚀
Ok so the earnings looked good to me.. so why did the stock do nothing? Am I missing something?
