u/ThoroQuant

Image 1 — Check my picks from races 4 - 9 in Keenland.  Picks hit pk5 AND pk6!
Image 2 — Check my picks from races 4 - 9 in Keenland.  Picks hit pk5 AND pk6!
Image 3 — Check my picks from races 4 - 9 in Keenland.  Picks hit pk5 AND pk6!
Image 4 — Check my picks from races 4 - 9 in Keenland.  Picks hit pk5 AND pk6!
Image 5 — Check my picks from races 4 - 9 in Keenland.  Picks hit pk5 AND pk6!
Image 6 — Check my picks from races 4 - 9 in Keenland.  Picks hit pk5 AND pk6!
▲ 6 r/HCRALabs+1 crossposts

Check my picks from races 4 - 9 in Keenland. Picks hit pk5 AND pk6!

October 11: Five A-tier winners in the late Pick 5. And a $144 Pick 6 structure that would have been the ONLY winning ticket.

Today was a remarkable day for HCRALabs.

THE LATE PICK 5

A / A / A / A / A

Every winner was an A-tier primary contender.

A $24 ticket covering those selections returned $1,348.75. <--Me 😄

THE PICK 6

Top B / A / A / A / A / A

The opening-leg winner was our second overall ranked horse — the top B-tier selection, with only one A horse ranked above it.

The remaining five winners were ALL A-tier.

Here's what makes that extraordinary.

A ticket using those selections would have cost:

2 × 2 × 3 × 2 × 3 × 2 = $144

And nobody hit the Pick 6 today.

Had that $144 ticket actually been played, it would have been the sole winning ticket in the winner-take-all pool.

I want to distinguish that clearly: we covered all six winners with our published rankings. I'm not claiming I played the ticket - but I should have. That's horseracing!

I take a very conservative approach to claiming a sequence was covered. HCRALabs credits sequence coverage only when there is no more than one B-tier winner in any horizontal sequence.

But consider what that says about the contender hierarchy. On a day when nobody connected all six winners, our top tiers contained every one of them — five in A and the remaining winner ranked second overall.

I'm attaching the original pre-race Race Sheets. You can see exactly where the horses were ranked before the results were known.

There will be losing days, and those will stay on the record too.

But this was one hell of a day, and I'm proud of the work behind it.

That's why I publish the analysis before the races and preserve the record afterward.

u/ThoroQuant — 4 days ago

Horseplayers: what kind of racing analysis do you actually find most useful?

Curious how people here actually use racing content.

If you had to pick one, which would you rather see more of?

I’m especially interested in what actually saves you time or helps you make a decision.

If your answer is “none of these,” I’d be interested in what you’d rather see.

Poll options:

  • Ranked contenders / tiers
  • Full-card summaries
  • Results / accountability
  • Quant / research insights
reddit.com
u/ThoroQuant — 17 days ago

Today's Belmont Results

Race 1

The Race View identified #8 Collado Hueco and #6 Hadrian’s Wall as the leading pair, with #8 the Preferred Win.

They finished exactly 1-2. Collado Hueco drew clear by 6¾ lengths and returned $7.42, while Hadrian’s Wall was clearly second best.

The published 8 → 6 exacta hit for $6.24 on $1.

The sheet also identified #7 Presidential Power as one of the clearest forward-presence horses. At 11-1, he showed that speed early before tiring to fourth.

Race 2

B-tier #9 Dignify was specifically identified in the Race View as supporting depth behind the primary pair.

He won at 7-1, returning $16.96.

The Race View also had #7 Suspend as the main alternative. He finished third and missed second by only a nose, with A-tier #2 Bring Cash taking the place.

The published multi-race selections covered the:

8-9 Daily Double — official payout $19.51 for $1
Winning tier sequence: A / B

Race 3

The Race View identified #2 Furry Fox as the principal speed and specifically warned that an easier-than-expected lead could make the front end very difficult to catch.

Furry Fox made the lead, controlled the race and held safely, winning at 6-1 and returning $14.14.

Upside Horse #4 A. P. Slingshot also rallied from well back to finish third.

The published multi-race selections covered:

9-2 Daily Double — $45.53 for $1
Winning tier sequence: B / B

8-9-2 Pick 3 — $95.73 for $1
Winning tier sequence: A / B / B

Race 4

B-tier #5 Conniving was the result worth highlighting here.

At 29-1, he swept into contention, battled A-tier #7 Celestial Glaze through the final sixteenth and missed second by only a nose. The three principals hit the wire together, with #9 Tapwrits Temper getting up late for the win.

The Race View had #7 Celestial Glaze as the close alternative, and he finished second.

Conniving at 29-1 was a legitimate B-tier near miss.

Race 5

Preferred Win #6 No Compromise was the clear first preference and won a head-to-head stretch battle in 1:10.74, returning $6.84.

The Race View’s main support group filled the next two spots: #11 Arabian Power second and Upside Horse #2 Perretti third.

Both published wagers connected:

6 → 11 exacta — $16.20 for $1
6-11-2 trifecta — $21.11 for $0.50

Race 6

Two specific Race View observations held up.

A-tier #5 Fierce Hope was identified as the closest alternative to the first choice. She came flying late and just missed, finishing second.

#9 Neptuneroad Richie was singled out as the clearest early speed. At 13-1, he disputed the pace and held third, paying $7.02 to show.

#10 Soldier’s Glory got the win at 13-1.

This was also flagged before the race as an unusually uncertain setup, with every 2 year-old maiden runner trying Tapeta for the first time.

Race 7

The Race View made two specific calls that showed up directly in the result.

#7 Long Pour was identified as especially dangerous if his strong long-sprint finish translated effectively to the longer route. He won and returned $5.52.

#10 Berning Beauty was specifically identified as a horse who fit better underneath.

He finished second at 24-1, paying $14.36 to place.

Race 8

Preferred Win #7 Dynamic Pricing won and returned $5.80.

The Race View also made a very specific call on B-tier #6 Modarosa at 13-1: she could get first run in a race expected to unfold at a controlled-to-moderate pace.

That is essentially how it developed. Modarosa made the lead, controlled the action and held it into the final sixteenth before Dynamic Pricing caught her late.

She paid $10.10 to place.

The published 7 → 6 exacta hit for $19.53 on $1.

Race 9

Preferred Win #4 Lyn’s Legacy won in 1:53.29 and returned $7.58.

The Race View identified #4 Lyn’s Legacy and #1 Ganderella as the leading pair. They finished first and third.

It also called #7 Felixyn the strongest supporting contender. She was bumped at the start but still ran on strongly for second.

That completed both published intra-race wagers:

4 → 7 exacta — $19.10 for $1
4-7-1 trifecta — $16.85 for $0.50

The published multi-race selections also covered:

7-4 Daily Double — $10.74 for $1
Winning tier sequence: A / A

7-7-4 Pick 3 — $27.85 for $1
Winning tier sequence: B / A / A

reddit.com
u/ThoroQuant — 25 days ago

Today's Belmont Race Track Picks: Race 9

Today's Belmont Race Track Picks: Race 9

A: #4 Lyn's Legacy, #1 Ganderella

B: #7 Felixyn, #9 No Tide, #5 Amira's Star

C: #10 Zap That Ghost, #3 Italianne, #6 Into the Unknown

X: #2 Probable Choice

Preferred Win: #4 Lyn's Legacy

Upside Horse: #9 No Tide

More information is in the pdfs I produce, so DM me if you'd like them.

reddit.com
u/ThoroQuant — 25 days ago

Today's Belmont Race Track Picks: Race 8

Today's Belmont Race Track Picks: Race 8

A: #7 Dynamic Pricing, #4 Destino d'Oro

B: #1 Oversubscribed, #6 Modarosa, #2 Table Flirt

C: #5 Ozara, #3 Ashikidah

X: None

Preferred Win: #7 Dynamic Pricing

Upside Horse: #5 Ozara

More information is in the pdfs I produce, so DM me if you'd like them.

reddit.com
u/ThoroQuant — 25 days ago

Today's Belmont Race Track Picks: Race 7

Today's Belmont Race Track Picks: Race 7

A: #3 Sunday Boy

B: #9 King's Leap, #7 Long Pour, #2 Concorde Spirit, #5 Cicciobello, #1 Shadow Dragon

C: #4 Caddiemaster, #10 Berning Beauty, #6 Kolomio

X: None

Preferred Win: #3 Sunday Boy

Upside Horse: #5 Cicciobello

More information is in the pdfs I produce, so DM me if you'd like them.

reddit.com
u/ThoroQuant — 25 days ago

Today's Belmont Race Track Picks: Race 6

Today's Belmont Race Track Picks: Race 6

A: #6 Saratoga Tea, #5 Fierce Hope

B: #7 Billy Bucchero, #4 A Lot of Gold, #8 Freedom Charge, #2 Private Banker

C: #9 Neptuneroad Richie, #10 Soldier's Glory, #1 Sphinx, #3 Never Before, #13 Mendel, #12 Tartah

X: None

Preferred Win: #6 Saratoga Tea

Upside Horse: #4 A Lot of Gold

More information is in the pdfs I produce, so DM me if you'd like them.

reddit.com
u/ThoroQuant — 25 days ago

Today's Belmont Race Track Picks: Race 5

Today's Belmont Race Track Picks: Race 5

A: #6 No Compromise

B: #11 Arabian Power, #2 Perretti, #7 Turbo Launch

C: #10 Oligarch, #9 Conquering Force, #5 Tamarin, #8 Running Ready, #12 Fleet N Ready, #4 Cederberg, #1 Endernite

X: #3 Nod to Tran

Preferred Win: #6 No Compromise

Upside Horse: #2 Perretti

More information is in the pdfs I produce, so DM me if you'd like them.

reddit.com
u/ThoroQuant — 25 days ago

Belmont Race 4 Picks

BEL R4

A: #10 Big Gain, #7 Celestial Glaze

B: #2 Epitaph, #11 Elysian Meadows, #4 Salming, #5 Conniving

C: #3 Shattuck, #9 Tapwrits Temper, #1 Ghostwriter

X: None

Preferred Win: #10 Big Gain

Upside Horse: #11 Elysian Meadows

More information is in the pdfs I produce, so DM me if you'd like them.

These selections are taken directly from the supplied BEL Race 4 JSON: #10 Big Gain and #7 Celestial Glaze are the A tier, #10 is Preferred Win, and #11 Elysian Meadows is the Upside Horse.

reddit.com
u/ThoroQuant — 25 days ago

BEL R3 Picks

BEL R3

A: #1 Dia Por Dia
B: #3 Our Preferred Pal, #2 Furry Fox, #4 A. P. Slingshot
C: #9 Starship Lizzy, #8 Margarita Molly
X: #5 Thirteen Red Flags, #7 Icy Legs, #6 Ishkabibble

Preferred Win: #1 Dia Por Dia
Upside Horse: #4 A. P. Slingshot

More information is in the pdfs I produce, so DM me if you'd like them.

Race 3 Result:

B-tier #2 Furry Fox wins at $14.14, and Upside Horse #4 A. P. Slingshot finishes third.

The multi-race results:

9-2 Daily Double — $45.53 for $1
8-9-2 Pick 3 — $95.73 for $1

Winning tier sequences:
Daily Double: B / B
Pick 3: A / B / B

The Preferred Win missed, but Furry Fox gave us another double-digit winner from the supporting group.

reddit.com
u/ThoroQuant — 25 days ago

BEL R2 Picks

BEL R2

A: #4 Arequipe, #2 Bring Cash
B: #7 Suspend, #9 Dignify, #5 Port in a Storm, #10 Minority Interest, #6 Hold’em
C: #8 Signature Role
X: None

Preferred Win: #4 Arequipe
Upside Horse: #5 Port in a Storm

More information is in the pdfs I produce, so DM me if you'd like them.

reddit.com
u/ThoroQuant — 25 days ago

BEL R1 — late post

BEL R1 — late post

Apologies — life got in the way and the race went off before I could get this posted. Full disclosure: this is not a pre-race public timestamp, so don’t treat it as one. I’m posting the sheet anyway so the full card stays on the record.

A: #8 Collado Hueco, #6 Hadrian’s Wall
B: #2 Evenly Alert, #4 All Cylinders
C: #7 Presidential Power, #5 Noble Edition, #1 Veblen
X: #3 Sorrentino

Preferred Win: #8 Collado Hueco
Upside Horse: #4 All Cylinders

More information is in the pdfs I produce, so DM me if you'd like them.

reddit.com
u/ThoroQuant — 25 days ago

Belmont 9/19 — full-card picks

Posting my Belmont card for today. Good luck everyone!

>A = my top tier
Preferred = the horse I’d lean to most on the win side
Upside = the horse I’d want to keep around in deeper combinations

I have full race sheets with more information for the card too. If anyone wants them, just DM me and I’ll send them over.

Curious where people disagree, especially in the bigger fields.

R1:
A: #5 Wharfie, #1 Lucky Loretta
Preferred: #5 Wharfie
Upside: #4 Gun Broker

Result: Preferred Win #5 Wharfie gets it done at $7.46, with B-tier Upside Horse #4 Gun Broker second.The 5 → 1, 4 exacta structure catches the 5-4 exacta — $11.63 for $1. Nice start to the card.

R2:
A: #2 Boston's Phinest, #3 Heat Missile.
Preferred: #2 Boston's Phinest
Upside: #1 Alyeska

Result: R2: B-tier #5 Life’s Dynamic gets home at $14.84. She was also in the published Secondary multi-race group. Combined with R1 Preferred Win #5 Wharfie, that covers the 5-5 Daily Double — $19.44 for $1. Two races in, and both winners were on the multi-race sheet.

R3:
A: #7 Candytown, #4 Ice Chocolat
Preferred: #7 Candytown
Upside: #1 Attfield

Result: B-tier #2 Fond Farewell wins at $7.68, with Upside Horse #1 Attfield second. The published 2 → 1, 5 defensive exacta catches the 2-1 exacta — $14.81 for $1. Multi-race keeps rolling too: 5-2 Daily Double $32.50 and 5-5-2 Pick 3 $82.61. That Pick 3 was A / B / B across the tiers — Primary / Secondary / Secondary on the multi-race sheets.

R4:
A: #3 Go Irish, #9 Red State
Preferred: #3 Go Irish
Upside: #7 Kid Billy

Result: B-tier #5 Big Hat Willie wins at $18.22, with A-tier #9 Red State second and Upside Horse #7 Kid Billy third. The published 9 ↔ 5 saver exacta catches the 5-9 exacta — $26.39 for $1. Multi-race payouts: 2-5 Daily Double $39.89 and 5-2-5 Pick 3 $199.41. Through four races, the winning tier sequence is A / B / B / B.

R5:
A: #8 Titan Ready, #5 River of Deceit
Preferred: #8 Titan Ready
Upside: #11 Con's the Man

Result: Preferred Win #8 Titan Ready gets it done at $4.84, with fellow A-tier #5 River of Deceit second and B-tier #6 Ideation third. The published plays catch the 8-5 exacta — $8.91 for $1 and the 8-5-6 trifecta — $27.38 for 50¢. Multi-race payouts through R5: 5-8 Double $37.44, 2-5-8 Pick 3 $100.66, 5-2-5-8 Pick 4 $276.14, and 5-5-2-5-8 Pick 5 $1,168.50.

Winning tier sequence through five races: A / B / B / B / A.

R6:
A: #2 Solo Stryker, #10 Captain George
Preferred: #2 Solo Stryker
Upside: #3 Challenge Me

Result: A-tier #10 Captain George wins at $7.78. Preferred Win #2 Solo Stryker missed here. #10 was part of the published A-tier primary pair and a Primary multi-race use. Multi-race payouts: 8-10 Daily Double $10.11 and 5-8-10 Pick 3 $176.75.

That Pick 3’s winning tier sequence was B / A / A.

R7:
A: #7 Special Ops, #3 Unauthorized
Preferred: #7 Special Ops
Upside: #5 Kaz Oil Changer

Result: Preferred Win #7 Special Ops wins comfortably at $6.08. Upside Horse #5 Kaz Oil Changer finished third after getting nosed out of second by X-tier #9 Chips And Fish. The exacta/trifecta structures miss because #9 just got up for second. Multi-race keeps going: 10-7 Double $13.96, 8-10-7 Pick 3 $36.51, 5-8-10-7 Pick 4 $256.67, and 2-5-8-10-7 Pick 5 $1,028.89.

Winning tiers: A/A/A in the Pick 3, B/A/A/A in the Pick 4, and B/B/A/A/A in the Pick 5.

R8:
A: #1 Chief Wallabee, #7 Freddie B
Preferred: #1 Chief Wallabee
Upside: #10 Magnanimous Max

Result: Upside Horse #10 Magnanimous Max wins at $16.58, with Preferred Win #1 Chief Wallabee second. The published saver 10 → 1 catches the 10-1 exacta — $15.99 for $1. Multi-race: 7-10 Double $26.55 and 10-7-10 Pick 3 $66.56.

That Pick 3’s winning tier sequence was A / A / B.

R9:
A: #8 Movin' On Up, #7 Delightful Flame
Preferred: #8 Movin' On Up
Upside: #11 Highway Harmony

Result: B-tier #1 Love Cervere wins at $8.94, with fellow B-tier #10 Leslie’s Humor second. Preferred Win #8 Movin’ On Up finished third. The published exacta/trifecta structures miss here. Multi-race: 10-1 Double $40.93 and 7-10-1 Pick 3 $207.98.

Pick 3 winning tiers: A / B / B.

R10:
A: #7 Bourboncentric, #4 Big Frosty
Preferred: #7 Bourboncentric
Upside: #5 Aggression

Result: B-tier #9 Beau Cheval closes the card with a $23.68 win. A-tier #4 Big Frosty was second and Preferred Win #7 Bourboncentric third. The published exacta structures miss — #9 wasn’t used on top. The multi-race run ends here as well: #9 was not included in the R10 multi-race group.

reddit.com
u/ThoroQuant — 26 days ago

Hope some of you followed - very good day at BEL today

Belmont today was very, very good.

9 races.
6 winners in A — averaging just 2 A horses per race.
8 of 9 winners in A/B.
Two A-tier non-favorites paid $17.00 and $8.90.

Across the five fixed wagering structures:

$1,087.60 fixed wagers:
$2,503.76 returned
= $1,416.16 profit

--> 130.2% ROI today

Fixed wagering structures are calculated as:

- $2 on all A to win

- $1 A/B exacta box

- $0.50 tri A / AB / ABC

- $0.10 Super A / AB / ABC / *

One card doesn’t mean we make 130% on our money every day, but this was a monster day for the rankings.

Who played along, and what did you hit?

reddit.com
u/ThoroQuant — 27 days ago

My Picks for free

Hi everyone -

Today I'm posting my BEL picks for free. Have a look.

The actual picks I create have a significant amount of the handicapping logic included, but too much for here.

If you like them let me know!

Races 1 - 3 already went off, so I'll post them on the bottom, but they are as they were.

Race 4:

A:

- Prog #: 10, Horse: A BOURBON FOR TOBY, Rank: 1. <-- Winner

- Prog #: 11, Horse: NOBLE CONFESSOR, Rank: 2

B:

- Prog #: 12, Horse: PAROS, Rank: 3 <-- Almost won at 17-1

- Prog #: 9, Horse: ROTHSCHILD, Rank: 4. <-- my friend's horse... oh well. He told me he looked washed out in the paddock.

- Prog #: 6, Horse: WRITE OFF JERRY, Rank: 5

- Prog #: 8, Horse: EARLY ADOPTER, Rank: 6

C:

- Prog #: 1, Horse: ADIOS COLE, Rank: 7

- Prog #: 5, Horse: DAUNT, Rank: 8

- Prog #: 2, Horse: SHERLOCK'S JEWEL, Rank: 9

- Prog #: 4, Horse: CIAO CHUCK, Rank: 10

X:

- Prog #: 7, Horse: DISCREET DANCER, Rank: 11

Race 5:

A:

- Prog #: 7, Horse: FOREVER YOUNG, Rank: 1. <-- Winner, but not exactly a longshot lol

- Prog #: 4, Horse: PHILEAS FOGG, Rank: 2

B:

- Prog #: 1, Horse: BAEZA, Rank: 3

C:

- (none)

X:

- Prog #: 2, Horse: STARS AND STRIPES, Rank: 4

Race 6:

A:

- Prog #: 8, Horse: INSPEIGHTOFCHARLIE, Rank: 1

- Prog #: 5, Horse: A LITTLE AT FIRST, Rank: 2

- Prog #: 3, Horse: CONMAN, Rank: 3 <-- Your winner at 7-1. Not bad, eh?

B:

- Prog #: 9, Horse: SHARED SUCCESS, Rank: 4

- Prog #: 11, Horse: SMOOTH BREEZE, Rank: 5

- Prog #: 4, Horse: JAXER, Rank: 6

C:

- Prog #: 12, Horse: MIZTERTONIC, Rank: 7

- Prog #: 10, Horse: THE PADDOCK PASTOR, Rank: 8

- Prog #: 13, Horse: STRAIGHT ARROW, Rank: 9

- Prog #: 6, Horse: MO TRUMP, Rank: 10

- Prog #: 2, Horse: CABLE READY, Rank: 11

X:

- Prog #: 1, Horse: TERMINAL VELOCITY, Rank: 12

Race 7:

A:

- Prog #: 11, Horse: CARD MAN, Rank: 1. <-- Winner

B:

- Prog #: 6, Horse: CYBERSTEEL, Rank: 2

- Prog #: 7, Horse: BACKLASH, Rank: 3

- Prog #: 13, Horse: LOUDEN, Rank: 4 <-- 3rd at 38-1 and looked like he might win at top of stretch

- Prog #: 3, Horse: GRAND LARCENY, Rank: 5

C:

- Prog #: 2, Horse: E Z SPEAKER, Rank: 6. <-- 2nd

- Prog #: 1, Horse: STONE AGED, Rank: 7

- Prog #: 5, Horse: CASINO, Rank: 8

- Prog #: 8, Horse: LIVE, Rank: 9

- Prog #: 4, Horse: IRON CONFESSOR, Rank: 10

X:

- (none)

Race 8: (meh, could have been better)

A:

- Prog #: 11, Horse: SEA VISTA, Rank: 1

- Prog #: 1, Horse: ART FAIR, Rank: 2

B:

- Prog #: 2, Horse: MATH TUTOR, Rank: 3 <-- 2nd

- Prog #: 3, Horse: FREAKY, Rank: 4 <-- 3rd

- Prog #: 6, Horse: MOMENTUM FILES, Rank: 5

- Prog #: 5, Horse: SWAGING, Rank: 6

- Prog #: 8, Horse: NEIGH BABY, Rank: 7

- Prog #: 9, Horse: SEEKER'S HOPE, Rank: 8

C:

- Prog #: 7, Horse: MASTER FREUD, Rank: 9

- Prog #: 12, Horse: NASH POTATOES, Rank: 10 <-- Winner

- Prog #: 10, Horse: MOMENT'S NOTICE, Rank: 11

X:

- Prog #: 4, Horse: BARKER, Rank: 12

Race 9:

A:

- Prog #: 6, Horse: MARIA CALLAS, Rank: 1 <-- 1st

- Prog #: 1, Horse: TUTHILLTOWN, Rank: 2. <-- 2nd

B:

- Prog #: 12, Horse: NESHIKA, Rank: 3 <-- 3rd

- Prog #: 8, Horse: SCORCH, Rank: 4

- Prog #: 5, Horse: DANCINGWITHDESTINY, Rank: 5

- Prog #: 7, Horse: LONG LEGGED QUEEN, Rank: 6

C:

- Prog #: 9, Horse: SHE'S OUR TIZ, Rank: 7

- Prog #: 11, Horse: GARDEN OF GRACE, Rank: 8

- Prog #: 4, Horse: SINEAD, Rank: 9

X:

- Prog #: 3, Horse: FABULOUS FOX, Rank: 10

- Prog #: 2, Horse: KAATERSKILL, Rank: 11

- Prog #: 10, Horse: AMY'S LIGHT, Rank: 12

\-------------

Race 3 (already went off):

A:

- Prog #: 12, Horse: INFLECT, Rank: 1 <-- 3rd

- Prog #: 10, Horse: CLASSY RUNNER, Rank: 2

B:

- Prog #: 9, Horse: FIORA, Rank: 3 <-- 1st

- Prog #: 3, Horse: MELODIES, Rank: 4

- Prog #: 8, Horse: LADY GIRVIN, Rank: 5

- Prog #: 11, Horse: MIDRIFF PRINCESS, Rank: 6

- Prog #: 7, Horse: BLAZING BEAUTY, Rank: 7 <-- 2nd

C:

- Prog #: 1, Horse: DELTA SUN, Rank: 8

- Prog #: 6, Horse: MARISKA, Rank: 9

- Prog #: 4, Horse: MIA ON TAP, Rank: 10

- Prog #: 2, Horse: TWICE THE FUN, Rank: 11

- Prog #: 5, Horse: BOBBY'S HONOUR, Rank: 12

X:

- (none)

Race 2 (already went off):

A:

- Prog #: 7, Horse: UNDER THE MOON, Rank: 1 <-- 2nd

- Prog #: 12, Horse: DAVIDSON, Rank: 2 <-- 1st

B:

- Prog #: 3, Horse: LUCK PENNY, Rank: 3

- Prog #: 6, Horse: WINNING FASHION, Rank: 4

- Prog #: 11, Horse: FROSTY BLAZE, Rank: 5

- Prog #: 10, Horse: MOM'S ON BREAK, Rank: 6 <-- 3rd

C:

- Prog #: 14, Horse: BUCCHERITA, Rank: 7

- Prog #: 9, Horse: CREAM OF THE CROP, Rank: 8

- Prog #: 4, Horse: LILYLUVSYELLOW, Rank: 9

- Prog #: 1, Horse: CYBER BABY, Rank: 10

- Prog #: 5, Horse: CALL ME ROSIE, Rank: 11

X:

- Prog #: 13, Horse: EARLY AND OFTEN, Rank: 12

Race 1 (already went off):

A:

- Prog #: 7, Horse: STAND THE RAIN, Rank: 1

- Prog #: 1, Horse: MARY LOIS, Rank: 2

B:

- Prog #: 3, Horse: RUNYON CANYON, Rank: 3

- Prog #: 9, Horse: OSMOSIS, Rank: 4. <-- 3rd

- Prog #: 5, Horse: LISA JOY, Rank: 5 <-- 1st

- Prog #: 8, Horse: SISTER JEAN, Rank: 6 <-- 2nd

C:

- Prog #: 4, Horse: IFWEONLYHAVELOVE, Rank: 7

- Prog #: 6, Horse: FANCY N' FLIGHT, Rank: 8

X:

- Prog #: 2, Horse: ONE BAD HABIT, Rank: 9

- Prog #: 10, Horse: MISS SNAFFLES, Rank: 10

reddit.com
u/ThoroQuant — 27 days ago

A little horse-betting math

Imagine a 10-horse field. The only information you're allowed to use is each horse's trainer win rate. Treat those win rates as relative weights — ignore horse ability, pace, post, jockey, surface, everything else.

The field looks like this:

3 horses — same 30% trainer
2 horses — two different 20% trainers
3 horses — three different 15% trainers
2 horses — two different 10% trainers

The three horses from the 30% trainer are separate betting interests.

No calculator or AI: what are the fair odds on EACH of those three horses?

Answer in the replies in a bit.

#HorseRacing

reddit.com
u/ThoroQuant — 1 month ago