r/HorseBetting

Interesting comment from Zac Purton ahead of Saturday:

“If you get a soft track in Australia, there’s no doubt they’re not running that time. So he’s untried on the ground.”

What we know so far:

KYR has won 22 of 24 starts, nearly all on good tracks in Hong Kong
He was beaten 0.18L by Ninja in a trial on a Soft 7 at Randwick on Tuesday (Hayes said beforehand he wanted to “dispel that rumour that he doesn’t go on the wet”)
Forecast has a fair bit of rain for Randwick this week, including race day, though it could easily change
His price has eased slightly, $1.30 → $1.35 on my bookie this arvo

And the obvious danger if it pours: Tempted, who Shane Dye says is 4 from 4 on rain-affected tracks, ran 2nd to him in last year’s Everest, and just won the Premiere by 3 lengths.

Counterpoint: he still won last year’s Everest despite Purton calling it his worst run of the season, and Hayes reckons he’s a better horse now.

So: is the wet a genuine worry, or are we overthinking a trial? If it’s a Soft 6 or worse on Saturday, who are you with?

October 11: Five A-tier winners in the late Pick 5. And a $144 Pick 6 structure that would have been the ONLY winning ticket.

Today was a remarkable day for HCRALabs.

THE LATE PICK 5

A / A / A / A / A

Every winner was an A-tier primary contender.

A $24 ticket covering those selections returned $1,348.75. <--Me 😄

THE PICK 6

Top B / A / A / A / A / A

The opening-leg winner was our second overall ranked horse — the top B-tier selection, with only one A horse ranked above it.

The remaining five winners were ALL A-tier.

Here's what makes that extraordinary.

A ticket using those selections would have cost:

2 × 2 × 3 × 2 × 3 × 2 = $144

And nobody hit the Pick 6 today.

Had that $144 ticket actually been played, it would have been the sole winning ticket in the winner-take-all pool.

I want to distinguish that clearly: we covered all six winners with our published rankings. I'm not claiming I played the ticket - but I should have. That's horseracing!

I take a very conservative approach to claiming a sequence was covered. HCRALabs credits sequence coverage only when there is no more than one B-tier winner in any horizontal sequence.

But consider what that says about the contender hierarchy. On a day when nobody connected all six winners, our top tiers contained every one of them — five in A and the remaining winner ranked second overall.

I'm attaching the original pre-race Race Sheets. You can see exactly where the horses were ranked before the results were known.

There will be losing days, and those will stay on the record too.

But this was one hell of a day, and I'm proud of the work behind it.

That's why I publish the analysis before the races and preserve the record afterward.

r/HorseBetting

Purton says Ka Ying Rising is “untried” on a soft track, and Randwick is forecast to get soaked this week. Does it open up The Everest?

Check my picks from races 4 - 9 in Keenland. Picks hit pk5 AND pk6!