u/TheAIPunter

Interesting comment from Zac Purton ahead of Saturday:

“If you get a soft track in Australia, there’s no doubt they’re not running that time. So he’s untried on the ground.”

What we know so far:

KYR has won 22 of 24 starts, nearly all on good tracks in Hong Kong
He was beaten 0.18L by Ninja in a trial on a Soft 7 at Randwick on Tuesday (Hayes said beforehand he wanted to “dispel that rumour that he doesn’t go on the wet”)
Forecast has a fair bit of rain for Randwick this week, including race day, though it could easily change
His price has eased slightly, $1.30 → $1.35 on my bookie this arvo

And the obvious danger if it pours: Tempted, who Shane Dye says is 4 from 4 on rain-affected tracks, ran 2nd to him in last year’s Everest, and just won the Premiere by 3 lengths.

Counterpoint: he still won last year’s Everest despite Purton calling it his worst run of the season, and Hayes reckons he’s a better horse now.

So: is the wet a genuine worry, or are we overthinking a trial? If it’s a Soft 6 or worse on Saturday, who are you with?

Ka Ying Rising (rated 135, ahead of Black Caviar's 132) had his Everest trial at Randwick this morning, and Ninja edged him. Both were under a hold.

Before the trial, David Hayes said: "He doesn't have to win, but he probably will." He also said he wanted to see how the horse handled an Australian slow track.

My take: trials under a hold tell you who's fit, not who's faster. Purton's job was to give him a hit-out and get him used to Randwick, not to win a trial. Ninja looks spot on, though, and that's worth noting.

But I'll put the question to you:

Does a trial loss mean anything for a horse at this level?
Does Ninja's run change your view of The Everest on the 17th?
Is anyone in the field actually close to KYR, or is it a race for 2nd? (Tempted ran 2nd to him last year.)

Purton says Ka Ying Rising is “untried” on a soft track, and Randwick is forecast to get soaked this week. Does it open up The Everest?

The world's top-rated horse just got edged in his Everest trial. His trainer said beforehand "he doesn't have to win, but he probably will." Overreaction or red flag?