I was browsing polymarket when I found a wallet that immediately caught my attention.
It's first trade was a $240,000 position on Argentina not beating Cape Verde.
Argentina are priced at roughly 85% to win, but this trader decided to take opposite side and is now the largest No holder in the market.
If Argentina doesn't win today, the position would return more than $1.6 millions
On paper spain should be winning this watch comfortably.
But one of polymarket's most profitable traders clearly disagrees.
They've placed $64, 000 on Austria to win, a position that could return almost $600,000.
The WC has already reminded us that favorite don't always deliver. Yesterday was another example, with England needing Harry kane's late goals to avoid a shocking exit against DR Congo.
Could Austria be the next big upset?
The biggest takeaway here isn't the 5% stake.
It's the $850 valuation.
If openAI is already being valued at that level, a $1T IPO doesn't seem far away.
Market also giving 72% chance of an IPO above $1T
Mbappe's two goals against sweden briefly pushed him ahead of Messi as the golden boot favorite on polymarket.
Messi soon moved back into first, but the market is still extremely close between the two.
Mbappe has 6 goals in 4 matches.
Messi has 6 goals in 3 matches, with another game still to come.
If you had to pick one today, who are you taking?
I've been looking through BreakTheBank's world cup trades.
The pattern seemed pretty simple : back the underdog and stick with them.
A few examples:
No on germany winning against paraguay at 26cents , targeting $850k.
Yes on USA winning against Australia at 33 cents, targeting $186k.
No on Ecuador winning Curacao at 15 cents , targeting $140k.
That approach helped them to make more than $4M during the tournament.
Then today's trade caught me by surprise.
Instead of backing another underdog, they're on England, even though the market gives around 77% chance of winning.
They also have another $330k position on England to win the world cup at 10.9 cents.
One polymarket trader put nearly $700K into market Sweden will not win the 2026 world Cup.
The maximum possible profit was only about $694.
Sweden has now been eliminated from the tournament but according to the wallet history, the trader still closed the position with a $42 loss
NPR briefly published a story that supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito would retire.
The market reacted instantly, sending odds to 99%.
While everyone else was chasing the news, two traders bought around 40,000 No shares at 9 cents.
Minutes later, NPR retracted the story, saying it had been published in error. The market quickly dropped back to around 40%.
One trader has already locked in about $10.4K in profit, while the other is still holding an unrealized gain of around $6.1K
It's not even July yet, the market already had Trump insulting Joe Biden during July at 99% .
The market is basically saying this is as certain as tomorrow's sunrise.
Has there ever been another market that felt this inevitable?
Bitcoin is trading around $58,800 and there's only 14 hours left until this market resolves.
Right now, the market gives it just 34% chance of falling below $57,500 before the deadline.
It shows weakness despite relatively stability in US, Japan, and South Korean markets.
Can it fall another $1300 after dropping this much already?
Today is one of the rare occasions where all the biggest traders I'm tracking have taken the same position.
Despite France being priced around 70% to win, none of them are backing France. Sweden is sitting at just 8%.
It's unusual to see this much aggrement among the top traders
Trader coldsway had one of the biggest 24-hour swings.
The trader's first recorded trade made roughly $1M by backing Croatia to beat Ghana.
Then everything went downhill.
Portugal to beat Columbia: -$1.8M
South Africa to beat Canada: -$3.1M
All of it happened within about 24 hours
Back in december, this made over $1M in a single day trading Google year in search market.
Went 22 out of 23 Google's year in search results briefly appeared before the official release.
A few days later, the trader changed the wallet's username and stopped trading.
Wasn't a Google employee charged last month over alleged insider trading in prediction markets? Is this the same wallet?
The wallet was created on June 4 and has made more than $2.2M from the world Cup market.
They are taking $98K position on Brazil not to win against Japan, entered at 44 cents.
Potential payout is $225K.
Market was already giving a U.S. - EU trade deal by end of the year just a 10% chance.
Now Trump is threatening 100% tarrifs on European imports if EU countries move ahead with digital taxes on American companies.
This only makes negotiations more difficult. I'd expect the chance of a trade deal to fall even further, not improve
Swisstony, one of the best trader on polymarket, placed $216,000 on Norway not beating France today.
Potential payout is around 270,000.
The market currently gives France a 61% chance of winning the match.