What is the probability of dying as a Metra passenger? About 1 in 450 million passenger trips — math below
Do you ever take the Metra and think about the probability of your own death?
For some reason, I do.
Below, I tried to calculate the historical risk using passenger deaths inside Metra trains. I'm not including pedestrians, drivers, or people outside the train.
First things first: has anyone ever died as a passenger in a Metra crash?
As far as I can find, there have been three passenger deaths in Metra's crash history, but only two fatal passenger crashes.
The first was the 2005 Rock Island derailment near the 47th Street bridge, where two passengers were killed, and more than 100 people were injured.
The second was the 2022 Clarendon Hills BNSF crash, where a Metra train hit a stalled box truck at a crossing, and one passenger was killed.
Metra spokespeople told local media after the 2022 crash that Clarendon Hills was only the second accident in Metra history to kill a passenger.
Now that we know that, we need to know the number of passenger trips!
Metra reported about 74.0 million passenger trips in 2019, then COVID crushed ridership: 18.6 million in 2020, 14.1 million in 2021, 23.7 million in 2022, 32.0 million in 2023, about 35 million in 2024, and about 38 million in 2025. This was really surprising to me, even by 2025, Metra was still only around 51–52% of its 2019 ridership. Yikes!
Metra’s 2018 ridership report said approximately 90% of passenger trips were for work, so work-from-home and hybrid work hit the system extremely hard!!
The Math
Known passenger deaths in Metra train crashes:
2005 Rock Island derailment: 2 passenger deaths
2022 Clarendon Hills crash: 1 passenger death
Total: 3 passenger deaths
Passenger trips from 2005 through 2025.
For the pre-COVID years, Metra was generally around an 80-million-trips-per-year railroad. Metra’s 2018 report says 2018 had about 76.1 million trips and was comparable to 2005, and the late 2000s / 2010s were generally in the high-70-million to mid-80-million range.
So a simple estimate:
2005–2019: 15 years × about 80 million trips/year
≈ 1.20 billion passenger trips
2020–2025: 18.6M + 14.1M + 23.7M + 32.0M + 35.1M + 38.1M
≈ 161.6 million passenger trips
Total 2005–2025:
≈ 1.20B + 0.162B
≈ 1.36 billion passenger trips
Now we can divide by the known passenger deaths:
3 deaths / 1.36 billion passenger trips
= 0.0000000022 deaths per trip
In other words, 1.36 billion passenger trips / 3 deaths ≈ 453 million passenger trips per death
So a (very) rough historical rate is: about 1 passenger death per 450 million Metra passenger trips
Or:
≈ 1 in 450,000,000
≈ 0.00000022% per passenger trip
Again, this might not be super accurate. And you probably shouldn't take it as a prediction. Thankfully, the sample size is tiny (three deaths total).
Two More Things:
What is the most dangerous car to be in?
It depends on the crash type.
In the 2022 Clarendon Hills crash, the train hit a stalled box truck at a grade crossing. The truck struck the right side of the lead cab car, damaging the lower-level seating area. The passenger who died was seated in that lead cab car near the sidewall where the truck hit. In that kind of crash, yes, the front car can be the dangerous place.
But in the 2005 Rock Island derailment was different. The train entered a 10 mph crossover at about 69 mph, derailed, and the major fatal damage happened when the fourth car struck the bridge structure.
So the "riskiest car" depends on the geometry of the crash...a truck hitting the train at a crossing can make the first car the worst place, but a derailment near a bridge, wall, or other structure can make the middle cars worse.
Important notice
Metra is extremely safe, and it seems to me they have learned from every mistake. I'll give you an example. The 2005 crash was an overspeed derailment. The National Transportation Safety Board said the lack of Positive Train Control contributed to that crash. So now Metra says all of its lines and trains are equipped with Positive Train Control, which is this really cool system designed to automatically stop trains in certain dangerous situations.
Of course, Positive Train Control isn't going to magically remove a stalled truck from a crossing, which is what happened in the 2022 Clarendon Hills crash.
The End: Metra is pretty safe, and the probability of dying as a passenger is extremely low
For passengers inside the train, fatal Metra crashes are extraordinarily rare. And based on the public record, your odds of dying as a passenger are roughly:
💀 1 in 450,000,000 per trip
So statistically, you are far more likely to miss your stop because you fell asleep than die in a Metra crash.
Anyways, happy Metra Riding!
🚆🚆🚆
P.S. Metra, if you’re reading this: you’re pretty great, but please make the trains faster. I should not have enough time between Naperville and Union Station to reconsider every life decision I’ve ever made.
Sources / read more
[1] ABC7 Chicago report on the 2022 Clarendon Hills crash, including Metra’s statement that it was the second Metra accident to kill a passenger. (ABC7 Chicago)
[2] NTSB report on the 2022 Clarendon Hills BNSF crash. (NTSB)
[3] NTSB report on the 2005 Rock Island derailment. (NTSB)
[4] FRA/Volpe reconstruction of the 2005 derailment, including the fourth-car fatal injury mechanism. (ROSA P)
[5] Metra/APTA ridership figures for 2019–2025. (Wikipedia)
[6] Metra 2018 ridership report, including the note that about 90% of trips were work trips. (metrarail.com)
Other interesting links:
Metra Ridership and On-Time Performance: https://metra.com/ridership-and-on-time-performance
Metra Annual Reports: https://metra.com/budget-and-financial-statements
