u/Ubercapper

Race 5 at Saratoga | Saturday July 4 | Post Time 2:59 PM Eastern

Sanford Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $225,000 | Six Furlongs | Two Year Olds

Top contenders: Booked (2), Vissino (5)

Note: Waggley (1) is expected to scratch.

This year’s Sanford Stakes is the first of three major two-year-old stakes races at Saratoga. The next are the Grade 2 Saratoga Special (August 1) and the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes (September 6). This race features a strong field of eight horses, with seven of the eight winning their last race and the other finishing second. The horse that has raced twice is Booked (2). 

Booked (2) improved after a second-place finish in his debut on April 28 at Churchill Downs. He won at Saratoga on June 7 after stalking in second at the half-mile pole. He remained a length behind at the quarter-pole before shifting into another gear to take a three-length lead at the eighth-pole, ultimately coasting home to win by one and three-quarter lengths. He is the only horse to have raced at Saratoga, which may give him a chance to win his second race. His trainer, Steve Asmussen, won the 2025 Sanford with Obliteration, who made his debut at Churchill Downs. He is making his third start, which makes him the horse to beat.

Vissino (5) won his debut at Churchill Downs on May 28. He started sixth early, then was fifth at the quarter pole and fourth at the eighth pole, four lengths behind. He powered past those three horses and won going away. He is the other horse I think can win.

Win Bets:

Booked (2) at 2 to 1 and higher.

Vissino (5) at 3 to 1 and higher.

Exacta: Box Booked (2) and Vissino (5)

Key Races & Bets for Saturday, July 4

Belmont Oaks (Grade 1)- Race 7 at Saratoga - Post Time 4:06 PM Eastern 

Where Amwager has a takeout promotion on Saturday on win bets at Saratoga.

Top Win Contender: Abashiri

Horses for second in exactas: Kensington Lane, Faithful Departed, Carmensita, Imaginationthelady 

Trainer Charlie Appleby has Abashiri, a classy filly who finished third of 11 in the Group 1 Irish 1,000 Guineas. The winner was Precise, who then won the Group 1 Coronation Stakes early in June at Royal Ascot. Precise would be the odds-on favorite if she were running in this race. Abashiri was three lengths behind that filly and just a half-length from the runner-up, True Love, who had previously won the Group 1 England 1,000 Guineas in May. Abashiri was also nearly three lengths in front of the fourth horse. These three-year-old fillies in Europe are better than many U.S. horses at this time. Abashiri’s last Equibase Speed Figures were 112 and 115, by far better than the two U.S. entries, Faithful Departed (108 in the Grade 3 Regret Stakes) and Imaginationthelady (104 in the Grade 2 Edgewood Stakes). 

The 2023 Belmont Oaks winner, Cinderella’s Dream, ran in this race after she finished 10th in the Guineas, and Abashiri ran better than that. In 2025, the winner of the Belmont Oaks also ran her last race in Europe, where she finished seventh in the England 1,000 Guineas. Trainer Appleby has an astounding record in North America with 13 wins and 10 second-place finishes in 35 races over the previous five years. Most of those came when his #1 jockey, William Buick, was riding, and Buick is riding in this race. Abashiri is the horse to beat. 

The four horses I think can run second are: Kensington Lane, who finished fifth in the Irish 1,000 Guineas (which Abashiri finished third), Faithful Departed, Carmensita (making her second before a seven-month layoff and finishing second in a group 1 stakes race last November, earning a 109 figure in Argentina), and Imaginationthelady. 

Win bets: Abashiri at 3 to 2 or higher.

Exactas: Abashiri over Kensington Lane, Faithful Departed, Carmensita, Imaginationthelady 

Double and Pick 3:

Race 7: Abashiri

Race 8: Phileas Fogg, Antiquarian

Race 9: Pacific Avenue, Title Role

 

Suburban Stakes (Grade 2) - Race 8 at Saratoga - Post Time 4:42 PM Eastern 

Top Win Contender(s): Phileas Fogg, Antiquarian

Horses for second in exactas: Original Sin, Tiztastic 

Phileas Fogg won the 2025 Suburban when he led at the start, opening by two lengths, then by three at the eighth pole, and barely winning by a head over Antiquarian. Last year, two races before this one, Phileas Fogg won the Excelsior Stakes at the same 10-furlong distance as the Suburban, but in that race, he stalked in second on the first two calls and won by five lengths. In his prep this year, Phileas Fogg had just two races, the one-turn prep, where he faded to third in a three-horse race after going way too fast. In his latest race, he led from the start and won easily by six lengths. He earned a 104 Equibase Speed Figure and should improve to the 110 figure from last year's race or the 111 he posted when winning the Excelsior. There is another horse with early speed, Forged Steel, who should make the lead, but jockey Carmouche, who rode him in both races last year and in his last race, should be in second so that he could win the Suburban race again. 

Just in case Phileas Fogg gets into it with Forged Steel, Antiquarian is the other horse with a shot to win. After finishing second in this race last year, Antiquarian won the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes in August, earning a career-best 112 figure. He finished eighth in the Breeders’ Cup Classic last fall, then was out for six months. 

When he started this year, he won the Grade 3 Westchester Stakes, earning an 111 figure. He might have improved, but he was sent into the Metropolitan Handicap, where he was early on the pace and faded to fourth. His best races came when he was third or second early, and in this case he should be in third early. He is the other horse I think can win this race. 

Original Sin won the Grade 3 Blame Stakes, his first stakes win, at nine furlongs. He earned a 97 figure and previously earned a 105, also at nine furlongs. He would need a big effort to beat the top two, but he does have a shot at second. Tiztastic was off for eight months, and had an easy turf race on April 15, but he won a big race on May 9 at nine furlongs, earning a 103 figure. That was his first win since the Louisiana Derby last March, when he rallied powerfully from ninth to win at nine and one-half furlongs. He should have no problem with this distance, and he has the best kick in the field. 

Win bets: Phileas Fogg and Antiquarian at 3 to 1 or higher. 

Exactas:

Box Phileas Fogg, Antiquarian

Box Phileas Fogg, Antiquarian, Original Sin, Tiztasic

 

Belmont Derby (Grade 1) - Race 9 at Saratoga - Post Time 5:20 PM Eastern 

Top Win Contender(s): Pacific Avenue, Title Role

For second in exactas: Remember Mamba 

In this Belmont Derby, we have two top Europeans, Pacific Avenue and Title Role. I believe that if this race were run 100 times with the same field, one or the other would win 80 times. Although Pacific Avenue finished third in his last race, the Group 1 Irish 2,000 Guineas. The winner was Gstaad, who has won three times and finished second in seven races. All were Group 2 or Group 1 races, including the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf last fall. Gstaad would be the 1 to 5 favorite in this race, and Pacific Avenue is making his third race of the year, so Pacific Avenue is the next to that horse. His Equibase Speed Figures improved in the Guineas from 98 to 111, and he should take another big step forward. He is trained by Charlie Appleby, with William Buick riding, which I mentioned in the Oaks (Race 7).

However, Title Role beat Pacific Avenue the only time they faced each other. That was in February in a non-graded stakes race, where Title Role earned a 93 figure. He improved to a 103 figure, although he finished fifth; then he beat a field of 11 on May 25 in the Group 2 Germany 2,000 Guineas. That was a good race, but not nearly as good as the 2,000 Guineas, even though he earned a career-best 107 figure. So, if Pacific Avenue and Title Role both improve, it will be difficult to see Title Role beat Pacific Avenue.

Remember Mamba is the best of the U.S. entries. He won his three career races, including the Grade 3 Transylvania Stakes in April, where he earned a 100 figure. Then, in his fourth race, the Grade 1 American Turf Stakes last May 2, he started 13th and was still eleventh after the quarter pole, but he made a big kick to get second. The winner of that race was Stark Contrast, who had finished second behind Gstaad in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf.

Win bets: Pacific Avenue at 3 to 2 or higher.

Title Role at 5 to 2 or higher.

Exacta:

Box Pacific Avenue, Title Role

Pacific Avenue, Title Role over Pacific Avenue, Title Role, Remember Mamba

Brought to you by Amwager

Key Races & Bets for Saturday, June 27

Courtesy of Amager, which also has a takeout promotion on Saturday on ALL bets at Woodbine, except show wagers.

Highlander Stakes (Grade 2)- Race 7 at Woodbine - Post Time 4:25 PM Eastern

Top Win Contender(s): Golden Afternoon, Outlaw Kid

Golden Afternoon has run four sprints in his 11 races, winning three times and finishing second once. He won his career debut in September 2024, then ran six routes and won once before the horse was finally put into another sprint, where he won again, taking the Tom Ridge Stakes last June, where he earned a then career-best 95 Equibase Speed Figure. He then ran in the $2 million Grade 1 Franklin-Simpson Stakes in September, where he finished a gang-up second in a 12-horse field, improving his figure to 101. He then stretched out to a one-mile race where he contested the mid-stretch before fading to sixth but he beat six horses and was only two lengths from the winner. He took six months off and came back in another turf sprint, which he won rallying from fourth to get up by a neck. He earned a 96 figure, not too shabby after six months off, and he should improve. There are three dyed-in-the-wool speed horses (Miss Vyvyanne, Foxtratanna, and Western Whirl) who make Golden Afternoon the best closer which helps him to win again.

Outlaw Kid is the only horse with a kick as good as Golden Afternoon. He won the King T. Leatherbury Stakes in April and missed by a nose in the Turf Sprint Stakes on May 16. Outlaw Kid has won seven turf sprints in 21 races. He is making his third race off a layoff since November and he should improve from the 93 figure in his second-back race and the 99 of his last race. He also won twice at this distance at Woodbine including the Vice Regent Stakes in 2024. He should win or be part of the exacta.

Win bets: Golden Afternoon, Outlaw Kid at 8 to 5 or higher.

Exacta: Box Golden Afternoon, Outlaw Kid

Selene Stakes (Grade 3) - Race 8 at Woodbine - Post Time 4:57 PM Eastern

 Top Win Contender(s): Tulip

This Selene is for three-year-old fillies with four of them having just one win, two with two wins, and one (Dixie Law) with four wins. However, Dixie Law earned three of those wins as a two-year-old, so every one of the seven horses has won a race this year. Tulip started her career in a one-mile turf race, a tough race for a horse to win in its first start. In that race on April 12, she broke slowly, the last of 12. She was seven paths off the rail at the quarter pole on the far turn and finished third. That was a big debut. Then, in her second race on May 10, she led every bit in a field of 11. She is moving from Kentucky for this race. She has a big shot to win because she has the best average speed (miles per hour) by far. She ran 39.2 mph in the last stretch, and her stride was 26.6 feet. No other horse has a stride better than 25 feet. The next horse was Luster who clocked 40 mph and a 25-foot stride. Tulip has no problem moving from all-weather to turf, as her dam’s only other progeny won an all-weather turf race. Trainer William Walden has won 10 of 51 all-weather routes and he gets Midwest jockey Alex Achard, who has four of 10 all-weather routes for Walden. All of that makes Tulip the horse to beat.

Win bets: Tulip at 3 to 1 or higher.

Dominion Day Stakes (Grade 3) - Race 9 at Woodbine - Post Time 5:29 PM Eastern 

Top Win Contender(s): Paramount Prince, Notorious Gangster

Paramount Prince has the rail and is the only frontrunner, so he should control the pace. He won the Dominion Day Stakes last year and he has won three times since. He also won the Plate Trial Stakes (at this distance) and the King’s Plate Stakes in 2023. He had been off from May 2 for five months before he won a seven-furlong race. He raced just three weeks ago on May 23, where the winner was Notorious Gangster, and Paramount Prince faded to fourth. Now he is five weeks out, and no other horse should get near the lead. He should get his ninth win in his 20^(th) all-weather race.

Still, Notorious Gangster has a shot if Paramount Prince can’t rebound since his nemesis beat him. That was Notorious Gangster’s first race off a nine-month layoff (May 23) and he beat Paramount Prince handily by three lengths. Notorious Gangster is one year younger than Paramount Prince. He won the Queenston Stakes in June 2025 at seven furlongs and stretched to this mile and one-eighth trip finished second in the Plate Trial. Then he finished third in the 13-horse King’s Plate. He came off a layoff and ran better than ever, earning a 103 Equibase Speed Figure, similar to what Paramount Prince earned in his win on May 2 when he posted a 102.

Win bets: Paramount Prince, Notorious Gangster at 3 to 2 or higher.

Exacta: Box Paramount Prince, Notorious Gangster

 

Royal North Stakes (Grade 3) - Race 10 at Woodbine - Post Time 5:59 PM Eastern

Top Win Contender(s): Ozara, Reagan’s Flame

In exactas and multiple bets: Quadruple, Fantastical

Ozara has a class edge over the other 11 horses. She is the only horse here to have won a Grade 2 race, winning the Ballston Stakes last August. That was her second straight win following her victory in the De La Rose Stakes in July. Those efforts earned her best Equibase Speed Figures of 113 and 107. She then faced tougher company in the Grade 1 First Lady Stakes and the Matriarch Stakes where she finished eighth and seventh. She took off the winter and most of the spring and was back in form when she won the Miss Liberty Stakes on May 30, earning a 100 figure. She is likely to improve significantly.

Reagan’s Flame is the only horse that can hold a candle to Ozara. Reagan’s Flame won six of 19 races and earned $500,000 compared to Ozara’s $666K. She just won the Grade 3 Whimsical Stakes on May 2 in her first race at Woodbine. She also changed trainers before that race moving to Saffie Joseph Jr. That race earned her a career-best 105 figure. Last year Reagan’s Flame stretched out from a seven-furlong race last September to a two-turn turf race win last October. Then she earned a 104 figure when she finished second in November. Her last race of 2025 was irrelevant when she tried dirt, and she finished sixth, which led to a nearly three-month layoff. The trainer uses Southern Florida jockey, Rasheed Hughes, who teamed with this trainer for a great record of 7-8-2 in 27 races. Given Reagan’s Flame’s recent race at Woodbine she has the same probability to win as Ozara.

Quadruple was third in the Whimsical. She bobbled at the start but she rallied to third. That was her first North American race and off an eight-month layoff. She is all-eligible, but if she gets into the race, she definitely has a shot to be second. Fantastical has a good record of 10 first or second finishes in 20 races, and her last race earned a career-best 102 figure when she finished second in Kentucky. Trainer Joe Sharp has a record of 3-2-0 in six races at Woodbine this year, so this mare also has a shot to be part of the exacta.

Win bets: Ozara and Reagan’s Flame at 3 to 2 or higher.

Exacta: Ozara, Reagan’s Flame over Ozara, Reagan’s Flame, Quadruple, Fantastical

Race 10 at Churchill Downs | Saturday June 27 | Post Time 5:31 PM Eastern

Wise Dan Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $500,000 | One Mile and One-Sixteenth on Turf | Four Years Old and Upward

Courtesy of Keeneland Select 

Top contenders: Silent Heart (1), Chase the Crown (4)

Other contenders: Lagynos (2), Dresden Row (6)

Silent Heart (1) gets the rail and the best early speed. No other horses in this field have ever been in the lead at the start and at the start of the first half. Silent Heart just won a route turf race at Churchill Downs on May 15, leading from the start and was never threatened by any of the other nine runners. He is also in a pattern, making his third start after ending an 11-month layoff in April in a sprint in which he still led past the one-sixteenth pole and finished third. That was his first time in a claiming race for $100,000, and trainer Mike Maker claimed him. Over the past five years, Maker has won 24 of 91 (26%) when the horses won their last races, and his record is 3 for 8 in stakes. Luis Saez rode Silent Heart to win previously and earned a career-best 111 Equibase Speed Figure. In his last race, Silent Heart earned a career-best figure of 112, matching the 112 figure Lagynos ran when he won the Arlington Stakes on May 30, and the 111 figure when he won the Opening Verse. Silent Heart, given this is his third race off the layoff and off a pattern of sprint-route-route, has a big shot.

Chasing the Crown (4) is also trained by Mike Maker, and one of his owners is also a part-owner of Silent Heart. While Silent Heart has early speed, Chasing the Crown is a closer. He earned his last two races by rallying from eighth early in each race, earning an 111 figure, and he earned a 110 figure when he finished second in the 2024 Wise Dan. In his most recent race, he rallied from sixth and was beaten by a nose by Lagynos in the Opening Verse. With his stablemate, Silent Heart, to ensure a strong pace, Maker has a pair of horses that can win this year’s Wise Dan.

Dresden Row (6) has won three races in a row. The first of the three came when he won the Autumn Stakes last November where he earned a 110 figure. Then he was off for five months on April 15, his first layoff since he changed to Todd Pletcher, where Dresden Row earned a 105 figure. His last race earned a 108 figure at this distance at Churchill Downs when he was first ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr., who rides him again. Pletcher is on a suspension, but his assistant, Anthony Sciametta Jr., is a longtime trainer who, before he started working for Pletcher in 2010, won more than 250 races in 2000 starts. Consider that Dresden Row has won eight in 17 races and earned more than $600K. He has a big shot, too.

Lagynos (2) has won four of six races in 2026, and he with jockey Jose Ortiz have five wins and two seconds in seven races over the past year. In last year’s Wise Dan, Lagynos finished third (106 figure). He also finished third in the Arlington (105) and second in the Opening Verse (98) in 2025. He is in his best career form this year, having won the Opening Verse with a 111 figure and the Arlington (112). He can win, and given that he has finished second in better than 50% of his turf races (12 of 21), he should be considered for a win. He will be the favorite, but in terms of figures, his aren’t much better than those of the other three contenders.

Win Bets:

Consider that both Silent Heart (1) and Chasing the Crown (4) are trained by Mike Maker; even though they aren’t coupled, we must treat them as coupled, and we should bet BOTH horses at 3 to 1 and higher.

As to the other contenders, I would consider a win bet for Dresden Row (6) at 7 to 2.

It is likely that Lagynos (2) will be the favorite and at less than 7 to 1, so we will cover him on exactas. 

Exactas: These two exactas help us to win the exacta twice if Silent Heart (1) and Chase the Crown (4) finish first and second, in each position.

Silent Heart (1), Chase the Crown (4) over Silent Heart (1), Chase the Crown (4), Lagynos (2), Dresden Row (6)

 

Silent Heart (1), Chase the Crown (4), Lagynos (2), Dresden Row (6) over Silent Heart (1), Chase the Crown (4)

Race 9 at Churchill Downs | Saturday June 20 | Post Time 10:14 PM Eastern

Chicago Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $300,000 | Seven Furlongs | Fillies and Mares, Four Years Old and Upward 

Top contenders: Zeitlos (4), Foie Gras (8)

Others for exactas: Usha (5), Eclatant (2) 

Zeitlos (4), Foie Gras (8), and Usha (5) were in a blanket finish in the Winning Colors Stakes on May 25, with Usha winning by a head over Zeitlos, and another neck behind was Foie Gras. That was a six-furlong race, whereas this Chicago Stakes is seven furlongs. The top two earned 110 Equibase Speed Figures, both career-best, while Fois Gras earned a 109, also her career-best. When two or three horses come from a common race there is every reason to look at the second and third horses. Particularly in this case when Zeitlos starts at 10 to 1, Foie Grass opens at 6 to 1, and Usha starts as the second favorite at 3 to 1. 

The favorite is Eclatant (2), who won the Grade 1 Madison Stakes on April 4. She won her race in February after eight months off, so two and one-half months off are not an issue. However, she earned a 109 figure when her second race back earned a 97. She is four years old and can improve as she has won five of eight races. Still, she is no better than any of the three top contenders, and she opens at 6 to 5. 

Back to Zeitlos, in her recent race, she was ridden by Brian Hernandez Jr., who rides again. She also has the best record of any horse in the field, with a record of 9-4-3 in 22 dirt races, better still at Churchill Downs where she has a record of 4-2-1 in nine tries. The early pace is set by Lotsandlotsofcandy, with Usha likely to be second, and Eclatant in third. Zeitlos was on her ankles in her last race and rallied, barely missed, and could be the best closer. If she breaks better, she can win. 

Foie Gras gets a big post change from her previous race, where she gets to the rail from the outside. In that race, she was sent straight to the front and battled for the first half and was a half-length back at the eighth pole when she just missed by a neck. She is a four-year-old who has improved her figures from 99  to 101 to 109. With her post, she can stalk like she did in February and won powerfully. Santana rode her to her win on December 28 when she rallied from fourth, and he rode her in her last race. Prat, who rode in her second and third races, moves to ride Usha. This filly has finished eighth of 11 dirt races on fast tracks. 

Win Bets:

Zeitlos (4) and Foie Gras (8) at 3 to 1 or higher. 

Exactas:

Zeitlos (4), Foie Gras (8) over Zeitlos (4), Foie Gras (8), Usha (5), Eclatant (2)

Zeitlos (4), Foie Gras (8), Usha (5), Eclatant (2) over Zeitlos (4), Foie Gras (8)

Courtesy of Keeneland Select

Dr. T.F. Classen Memorial Stakes - Race 10 at Thistledown - Post Time 4:48 PM Eastern 

Top Win Contender(s): Authoritarian Girl, Miz Keeta, Solute the Kid 

Authoritarian Girl won all four of her races this year and last year, except for her first races off the layoff in 2025 and this year. All her wins came from the front, with no threats in the stretch. Last year, she won her second race off the layoff in a $50,000 claiming race before she won this stakes race. She is on the same pattern, as she won her last race on June 1 in a $50,000 claiming race after finishing fifth on May 6 off a nine-month layoff. There may be other horses with early speed, but Authoritarian Girl has the outside, allowing her to stalk, as she won twice that way. She has a decent shot at her 10th win in 15 starts. 

Still, there are two other mares with a shot, and their odds make them worth a bet. Miz Keeta is one of the pressers who can get up to win. She finished second to Authoritarian Girl in her last race on June 1, her first start in nearly six months. She closed three and one-half lengths in the last eighth, missing by just a half-length. She has improved, and if any horse has a shot at the upset, she has the best. She starts at 15 to 1. 

Salute the Kid is intriguing, particularly since she starts at 30 to 1. In 2024, she won off a layoff, then finished third in this stakes race, after rallying from fourth to take the lead at the eighth pole. Last year, she came back from a layoff, finishing fifth and second before finishing fifth in this race. This year, she won the layoff on May 25 easily, her best effort since 2024. She has won six of 19 races at this distance. She can improve, and she has a shot to upset. 

Win bets: Authoritarian Girl at 2 to 1 or higher.

Miz Keeta and Solute the Kid at 4 to 1 or higher. 

Exacta: Box Authoritarian Girl, Miz Keeta, Solute the Kid

  

Lady Jacqueline Stakes - Race 11 at Thistledown - Post Time 5:35 PM Eastern

Top Win Contender(s): Tirupati, Low Country Magic

Other contenders: Nerazurri, Take Charge Omaha

Tirupati has had 16 starts, winning four times on turf routes in 9 races. In her 6 non-grass races, she has a record of 1-1-4, and in the win, she won by four lengths. Only she and two other horses (Nerazurri and Take Charge Omaha) have run in two recent graded stakes, and Tirupati’s last race was faster than the other two. She earned a 97 Equibase Speed Figure when she finished fourth, beaten a neck by the third finisher and by one and one-half lengths in the Royal Heroine Stakes on April 25. This compares to Nerazurri, who earned an 84 figure when she finished eighth, and to the 89 earned by Take Charge Omaha when she was beaten by 10 lengths, finishing fourth. While Standoutsensation earned her best recent figure, which was 93, she finished third.

Tirupati is on her third race after a long layoff from April 2025 to April 2026. She returned in a sprint, improved in her last race, and finished fourth, beaten just over one length. She also had two excellent races before the layoff. She missed by a head in the Grade 3 Buena Vista (March 2025) and then won the Grade 3 Wilshire Stakes in March of last year. She earned 107 and 100 figures, and no other filly or mare has run that fast except Nerazurri. Nerazurri earned a 100 figure in January in a restricted stakes, then a career-best 109 when she finished second in the Grade 3 Bayakoa Stakes in February. Nerazurri finished sixth in her second race back, beaten by 13 lengths, and then finished eighth in her last race on May 1, where she earned only 84. Another horse with lower starting odds than Tirupati is Standoutsensation, who earned a 93 figure when she finished third in the Dig A Diamond Stakes on April 25 and a 93 figure when she finished fourth in the Grade 2 Azeri Stakes on March 7.

California jockey Kimura has the ride and has won two of her last three races. He also rode her in her recent race, her third start off the layoff, where Tirupati ran faster than Nerazurri, Standoutsensation, and Take Charge Omaha, so Tirupati has a good shot to win and starts at 9 to 2 odds. 

Low Country Magic has an inside post and tactical speed. She won her last two races in May and June 2025, leading from the start, and in her second race, she earned a 95 figure. She was off from October until February, then made her comeback at this distance and finished third. Next, she finished fourth at nine furlongs, where she didn’t use her early speed. Her third race off the layoff was her best of the year, when she led from the start. Although she finished second, she was seven lengths ahead of the third-place finisher. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione rode her in her last race, the Allaire DuPont Distaff Stakes. She will go a long way on the front and could keep going. She starts at 5 to 1. 

Win bets: Tirupati and at 2 to 1 or higher.

Low Country Magic and at 3 to 1 or higher. 

Exactas: Tirupati, Low Country Magic over Tirupati, Low Country Magic, Nerazurri, Take Charge Omaha 

Tirupati, Low Country Magic, Nerazurri, Take Charge Omaha Tirupati, Low Country Magic over Tirupati, Low Country Magic

 

Ohio Derby (Grade 3) - Race 12 at Thistledown - Post Time 6:20 PM Eastern

Top Win Contender(s): Desert Gate, Zihnal

Exactas in second: ALL (except Chip Honcho, Ocelli, and Trendsetter) 

Desert Gate is the fastest horse in the field. He won his last two races by 10 and seven lengths, earning 101 and 98 Equibase Speed Figures. His last two wins came when he tried blinkers, and the win in his second race back came with Flavien Prat, who will be piloting him here. Bob Baffert has never had a horse in this race, and this colt is the lone frontrunner, so he could win his third straight stakes race. 

Desert Gate will obviously be the favorite, but there is money to be made with Zihnal, who starts at 30 to 1. His odds are high because he just won his maiden. However, that was also his third race, and his two previous races don’t mean much. His debut, a two-turn race, is very hard to win in California. His second was a turf race when he shipped to Kentucky, where he stalked fourth for the half, then packed it on and finished ninth. His recent race was excellent. He raced third until the stretch and won by a length. He earned an 89 figure, which, except for Desert Gate, is one of the best, even better than horses with lower odds, such as Chip Honcho (91), Robusta (78), Trendsetter (90), and even Albus (89 when he won the Wood Memorial in April). He is trained by Thomas Jonathan, the same trainer as Tirupati. Jonathan has won two stakes races from two starts. Zihnal is improving when many other horses aren’t in good form. 

Win bets: Desert Gate at 1 to 1 (even more) or higher.

Zihnal is a good bet for a win, place (and perhaps show) at 6 to 1 or higher.

Exacta: Desert Gate over all except Chip Honcho, Ocelli, and Trendsetter. (Those are the three lowest exactas)

Trifecta: Desert Gate over ALL over Zihnal.

Be sure to opt in and play with AmWager for the 0% Takeout promotion on the WIN Pool at Thistledown this Saturday!

Key Races & Bets for Saturday, June 13

Pegasus Stakes - Race 5 at Monmouth - Post Time 2:52 PM Eastern 

Top Win Contender(s): Baby Vino, National Charter 

Baby Vino has run better in his last three races, all routes, and he is ready for stakes. He earned an 81 Equibase Speed Figure when he finished third on March 1, then finished second on March 28, earning an 87 figure. He earned a 99 figure when he won his maiden on May 1, drawing off by three lengths. That is the best figure among the other six horses and he is still improving. The colt is sired by Vino Rosso whose son, Tuscan Sky, won this race in 2024. With Schoolyardsuperman, trained by Chad Brown, as the favorite, who I believe is vulnerable, Baby Vino has decent odds. 

National Charter earned his first win in his second race. That was his first route, winning by three lengths, earning a 97 figure. His pattern is improving and he gets the rail where he should be second early behind Ponder Dream. National Charter is out of a dam who produced Super Steed, the winner of the Southwest Stakes in 2019, so both National Charter and Baby Vino have the highest probability of winning. 

I am taking a stand against Schoolyardsuperman because his best two races were at one turn. He earned a 95 figure for his first win in December, then ran poorly in the two-turn Withers Stakes in February. In his last race, Schoolyardsuperman finished second, another one-turn mile where he led after six furlongs but was beaten by a length, earning a similar 96 figure. The winner, Hedge Ratio (also trained by Chad Brown), won his next race the Long Branch Stakes at Monmouth on May 10, but the figure regressed from 97 to 91. That tells me this horse is vulnerable. 

Win bets: Baby Vino and National Charter at 3 to 2 or higher. 

 

Salvator Mile (Grade 3) - Race 9 at Monmouth - Post Time 5:01 PM Eastern 

Top Win Contender(s): Point Dume, Bishops Bay, Otter Mischief

Point Dume has the best shot to beat the favorite, Bishops Bay, because Point Dume is the only other horse to have won a Grade 2 stake, aside from Bishops Boy. Point Dume won the Carter Stakes in April and earned a 102 Equibase Speed Figure (ESF), compared to Bishops Bay, who won the Cigar Stakes last December and earned a 115. Before that, Point Dume had two straight wins, including the General George Stakes, when he earned a career-best 111 ESF. Point Dume and Bishops Bay have had similar results in their last four best races, with Point Dume averaging 107 compared to 108 for Bishops Bay. Point Dume has a record of 2-3-0 in one-mile races (including a win at one mile and 70 yards), while Bishops Boy has 4-1-0 in one-mile races. In his last race, Point Dume finished 10th in the higher class in the Churchill Downs Stakes, where he raced eighth early and never showed up. I will draw a line over that race. Since Point Dume is likely to be in front early, as he was in his last five wins, when he led from start to finish, he can get his 12th career win. 

Bishops Bay likes to win, with nine victories in 15 career starts, except when he finished worse than second twice, in the Forego Stakes last summer and in the Saudi Cup in February. His fourth-place finish in the Saudi Cup was behind possibly the best handicap horse in the world, Forever Young, who also won the Breeders’ Cup Classic last November. In May of 2025, Bishops Bay won the Westchester Stakes with a 111 ESF, then won the Salvator Stakes with an 110. He then won the Forty Niner last November before winning the Cigar Mile. In his second start of 2026, Bishops Bay finished second in the Westchester, where he earned a 103 ESF, which was seven points lower than his win in last year’s Salvator Mile, but in his third race of the year, he should improve and could win or finish second. 

Otter Mischief finished first or second in eight of his nine recent races. His best figures were 107 and 109, and his career-best effort came in his most recent race. At just four years old, Otter Mischief has room to improve and should have high odds, given that he has run in a stakes race only once when he finished second in the City of Laurel Stakes. However, I absolutely think this horse can be part of the exacta. 

Win bets: Point Dume at 2 to 1 or higher.

Bishops Bay at 2 to 1 or higher.

Otter Mischief at 4 to 1 or higher. 

Exacta: Box Point Dume, Bishops Bay, Otter Mischief

Daytona Stakes (Grade 3) - Race 8 at Santa Anita - Post Time 7:30 PM Eastern

Top Win Contender(s): Nesso’s Lastharrah, Sumter, First Peace

Exactas in second: Anmer Hall 

Nesso’s Lastharrah won his best career race in his last race when he put blinkers on. It was at the same six-furlongs and-one-sixteenth downhill turf at Santa Anita. Jockey Jaramillo has been aboard for his last two races. He earned a110 Equibase Figure Speed and is on a par with horses at lower odds, such as Sumter who won the San Simeon in March with an 115 figure, and First Peace who finished second in the 2024 Daytona with a 109 figure. 

Sumter has won once and finished second twice in similar races going back to December 24. He missed by a head in the Joe Hernandez Stakes in 2024 earning a 112 figure. He finished second again in 2025, where he earned a 115 figure. He won his last race at this distance on March 14, taking the San Simeon Stakes by a nose, earning an 115 figure. In his last race on April 18 he stretched out to a mile but lacked room from the upper stretch to the mid-stretch and finished fifth. He gets the excellent outside post and should finish second or win. 

First Peace ran his poorest in his last two races in August and September last year. Prior to those two efforts, First Peace won twice and finished second twice in six races. Those races included missing by a half-length in the Siren Lure Stakes on April 24, finishing second by a half-length in the 2024 Daytona, winning the Wickerr Stakes in July, and then winning the Eddie D Stakes in September. Those two efforts earned him figures of 108, 109, 120, and 113. He is coming off a nine-month layoff, and his workouts indicate he is ready to return to his prior efforts. 

Amner Hall has a good record in turf sprints, having won twice and finished second twice in his last five races. He earned better than the 111 figure just once, when the race was on the straight course and not the downhill course. Still, he has finished first or second in eight of 12, so he is a horse I feel we have to use in exactas. 

Win bets: Nesso’s Lastharrah at 5 to 2 or higher.

Sumter and 5 to 2 or higher.

First Peace at 3 to 1 or higher.

Exacta: Nesso’s Lastharrah, Sumter, First Peace over Nesso’s Lastharrah, Sumter, First Peace, Anmer Hall

 Courtesy of Amwager.

 

 

 

Race 10 at Churchill Downs | Saturday June 13 | Post Time 5:28 PM Eastern

Chorleywood Stakes | Purse $200,000 | One Mile and Three Eighths on Turf | Four Year Olds and Upward

Top Contenders: Spoiler (3), Burnham Square (1), Parchment Party (2), Chapman’s Peak (7)

Spoiler (3) is aptly named because he will be among the higher-odds horses in the field, given his turf stakes record of 0-1-1 in three races. He is running in his second race since being claimed by trainer Mike Maker, his first turf try for Maker, and his first attempt at a marathon (1 3/8 and farther). Maker has no fewer than nine horses in turf marathons, and every one of those horses followed this pattern, with only two horses paying less than $10 and only two paying better than $40.

The reason Maker is so good with these horses is that when they ran longer races, the slower fractions allowed them to conserve energy as opposed to the high-pressure early-pace races in the shorter races, and each one has earned better Equibase Speed Figures. Eight of the nine horses improved by nine Equibase Speed Figures points when their previous race was one mile to one and one-sixteenth. One horse won its first race off the claim at a mile and one-half, then won a marathon.

In his last race (April 26) at one and one-sixteenth, Spoiler earned a 100 figure. This projects this horse to earn about 108, which is fast enough to win compared to Burnham Square (1) and Parchment Party (2), both of which earned 107 figures in their recent races. Better still, Spoiler entered the June 4 allowance, but Maker scratched him to run in this race. I really think Spoiler can beat the favorites.

Burnham Square (1) and Parchment Party (2) have legitimate chances to win, but Burnham Square is the better of the two. Burnham Square just won the Grade 3 Louisville Stakes on the turf, a marathon at Churchill Downs. Before that, he won the Elkhorn Stakes at Keeneland. He earned the Elkhorn in his second race of the year after six months off and earned a 100 figure before he earned 107 in Louisville. If Spoiler can’t upset Burnham Square, he should win.

Parchment Party (2) has won four straight marathons in the U.S. His only poor race came when he raced across the world in Australia last November. Since then, he has won both races with 107 figures. However, all his races have been on dirt. On turf, he has yet even to hit the board in three career turf tries. In his three poor efforts, he didn’t wear blinkers, which he wore in his last races, so it is possible he can run another “A” effort.

Chapman’s Peak (7) has raced the least of the eight entrants. He won three of eight turf races. His best race came at Churchill Downs, when he led in the late stretch and was beaten by a head in the Commonwealth Stakes last November, earning a 107 figure. He took two and a half months off from December to February, then finished third at a mile and a sixteenth. He tried a mile and a half on April 16 and won nicely. He is a four-year-old and can run and improve in his third start off the layoff. He has a shot to be part of the exacta and can win.

Win Bets:

Spoiler (3) at 4 to 1 or higher.

Burnham Square (1) at 8 to 5 or higher.

Chapman’s Peak (7) at 5 to 1 or higher.

Parchment Party (2) at 7 to 2 or higher.

Exactas: (The lowest payoffs will occur if Burnham Square and Parchment Party finish 1st and 2nd, so we won’t use them. If they finish 1st and 2nd, so be it.)

Spoiler (3), Chapman’s Peak (7) over Burnham Square (1), Parchment Party (2), Chapman’s Peak (7) 

Burnham Square (1), Parchment Party (2), Chapman’s Peak (7) over Spoiler (3), Chapman’s Peak (7)

Courtesy of Keeneland Select

Key Races & Bets for Saturday, June 6

Metropolitan Handicap (Grade 1) - Race 11 at Saratoga - Post Time 5:32 PM Eastern 

Top Win Contender(s): Antiquarian, Nysos

Trifecta in third: Saudi Crown, Rate by Merit 

Among the seven horses, ONLY Antiquarian and Nysos have even a 10% chance of winning. 

Antiquarian and Nysos earned Equibase Speed Figures of 110 or better in their last races. Antiquarian earned an 113 when he won the Westchester Stakes at this distance on May 3. Nysos earned a 116 when he finished second, by one length, to Forever Young in the Saudi Cup on February 14. These two remarkable horses won 12 races and finished second five times in 20 races. In the previous eight runnings of the Metropolitan Stakes, every winning horse had won their previous race. 

With the exception of his fourth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Classic last November, Antiquarian has finished second in four graded stakes, and his best race was his most recent one. The Westchester effort came after a six-month layoff, and he is expected to improve in his second race of the year. 

Nysos was also running a career-best figure in the Saudi Cup, and the horse that beat him is considered the best older handicap horse in the world. Before that, Nysos won four straight races, including the Breeders’ Cup Mile, where he earned an 114 figure after a similar three-month layoff. Trainer Bob Baffert won the Metropolitan Stakes with National Treasure after a fourth-place finish in the Saudi Cup. 

So, I am going to bet on Antiquarian to win, as he opens at 6 to 1, compared to 9 to 5 for Nysos. But Nysos can be used in exactas, doubles, and pick 3s. 

Win bets: Antiquarian at 9 to 5 or higher. 

Exacta: Nysos over Antiquarian, and box also Nysos and Antiquarian

Trifecta: Nysos, Antiquarian over Nysos, Antiquarian over Saudi Crown, Rate by Merit 

Double and Pick 3:

Race 11: Antiquarian, Nysos

Race 12: Bright Picture

Race 13: Powershift, Renegade, Golden Tempo

 

Manhattan Stakes (Grade 1) - Race 12 at Saratoga - Post Time 6:11 PM Eastern 

Top Win Contender(s): Bright Picture

Exactas in second and third in trifectas: Make Me King, Integration, One Stripe, Battle of Normandy

Trifectas in second: Deterministic, Rhetorical 

Bright Picture is trained by Andre Fabre, one of the best trainers in history. He is 80 years old and has been the French champion trainer 30 times, including 21 straight years from 1987 to 2007. In his career, he has won many races in North America, including with Flintshire, who won four races and finished second from 2014 through 2016, including five in New York. Fabre hasn’t started a horse in North America since 2021, so when he brought Bright Picture to the States, I took note. Bright Picture won his first two races this year, both at one mile and one-quarter, similar to this mile and three-sixteenth distance. 

Bright Picture won his first race this year, the Group 3 Prix Exbury on a left-handed course (as in the U.S.), where he also won his other two races. He then won the Group 2 Prix d’Harcourt. Group 2 European stakes are equivalent to Grade 1 races. Group 1 races in Europe are better than North American Grade 1 races, except for the Breeders’ Cup turf races. So, when Bright Picture finished second in the Group 1 Prix Ganay on April 26, it was good enough to win this year’s Manhattan, where he also earned the 120 Equibase Speed Figure, the best figure in the field, except for the 127 figure Make Me King earned when finishing fourth in the Dubai Turf this March. The winner of the Prix Ganay was Darzy, who won his last race last year, the Group 1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, and has won his two top races since. Given that Darzy would be a heavy favorite in this race, Bright Picture will do nicely. 

Win bets: Bright Picture at 3 to 2 or higher.

I am happy to bet on Bright Picture. Still, there is a chance for profit in exactas and trifectas because I think the other two favorites, Deterministic and Rhetorical, might be better choices than the other four horses, Make Me King, Integration, One Stripe, Battle of Normandy, to finish second. 

Exactas: Bright Picture over Make Me King, Integration, One Stripe, Battle of Normandy 

Trifectas: Bright Picture over Deterministic, Rhetorical over Make Me King, Integration, One Stripe, Battle of Normandy 

Double:

Race 12: Bright Picture

Race 13: Powershift, Renegade, Golden Tempo 

 

Belmont Stakes (Grade 1) - Race 13 at Saratoga - Post Time 7:04 PM Eastern 

Top Win Contender(s): Powershift, Renegade, Golden Tempo

Exactas in second: Chief Wallabee, Growth Equity, Emerging Market 

Trainer Todd Pletcher has won four times in 12 Belmont Stakes, and his overall record of 4-5-6 in 26 races when he entered two or more horses. In this year’s Belmont Stakes, Pletcher has Powershift, who starts at 12 to 1, and Renegade, the favorite at 2 to 1. Powershift is owned by Mike Repole, while Renegade is owned by Repole and others. The two horses complement each other. Renegade is a deep closer who has raced in seventh or eighth early (excluding his sprint debut), except in the Kentucky Derby, where he was 15^(th) early. He finished first three times and second twice in his five routes. Powershift finished first or second in three races, all routes. 

Powershift is the best bet over the two Pletcher runners because he is 12 to 1, having just won his maiden. He draws the two post from the gate and gets Luis Saez. Saez is an exceptionally good jockey on horses with early speed. Powershift will be sent to the front from the start, where the colt will go slowly, as only one other horse, Growth Equity, has any early speed. Jockey Manny Franco gets the six post, and if Growth Equity sits second early, unless this horse is a sacrificial rabbit for his stablemate Emerging Market. Even if Franco decides on Growth Equity, Powershift can still get the catbird seat. Both Powershift and Renegade have worked in company for their last four works. 

Irad Ortiz, Jr., has ridden Powershift and Renegade in all wins and seconds (seven races), and obviously, since Renegade was just beaten by a neck in the Kentucky Derby, he is the one he has chosen. Renegade, in his first race this year, moved from sixth to the lead in the last quarter mile to win the Sam F. Davis Stakes, and then from seventh to the lead in the Arkansas Derby. In the Kentucky Derby, he rallied from 12th and just missed by a neck. 

So, with no horse except Powershift in front, or if Powershift and Growth Equity battle, Renegade will win or finish second at the worst. If Renegade runs as well as he did in either his last race or the Arkansas Derby, he will win this race. 

Golden Tempo ran superbly in the Derby. He has improved in his last three races, earning a 90 figure, then finishing third in the Risen Star Stakes in February, and then a 95 in the Louisiana Derby before earning a 100 figure in the Derby. No other horse in this field has earned 100 figures except Golden Tempo and Renegade. Just like last year’s winner of the Belmont Stakes, Sovereignty has been freshened since the Derby. He too will have a fantastic kick and should finish in the money, but I think Pletcher’s pair should finish first and second (as Mo Donegal and Nest did in 2022) or first and third (as Tapwrit and Patch did in 2017). 

Win bets: Powershift at 4 to 1 or higher.

Renegade and 9 to 5 or higher.

Golden Tempo at 3 to 1 or higher. 

Exacta: Powershift, Renegade, Golden Tempo over Powershift, Renegade, Golden Tempo, Chief Wallabee, Growth Equity, Emerging Market

Brought to you by Amwager, where you can get a 0% takeout equivalent bonus, up to $200 per day, on your WIN bets on the Belmont Stakes card at Saratoga on Saturday, June 6^(th)****.

Race 10 at Saratoga | Saturday, June 6 | Post Time 4:52 PM Eastern

Woody Stephens Stakes – Grade 1 | Purse $500,000 | Seven Furlongs | Three Years Olds 

Top Win Contender(s): Civil Liberty (8), Crude Velocity (6), Solitude Dude (5)

Exactas in second: Obliteration (2), Englishman (7) 

Civil Liberty (8) just earned his first win (in his fifth race), the only horse in the field to win his maiden recently, which is why his starting odds are 10/1. However, Civil Liberty ran as fast in his last race, earning a 101 Equibase Speed Figure, as Crude Velocity (6) did when winning the Grade 2 Pat Day Mile five weeks ago. Civil Liberty was apparently a good horse in the barn of trainer Doug O’Neill in his early career. He finished second in his debut, then last summer was entered in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity for his second start and finished third. He stretched out to two turns in the American Pharoah Stakes, where he ran fourth at the start and finished fourth. Then, the colt was turned out for the fall and winter. 

Starting his three-year-old campaign on March 7, Civil Liberty entered a sprint, where he stalked third and took the lead by a length at the eighth pole before being beaten by a neck by Crude Velocity, who had raced a month earlier, compared with five months for Civil Liberty. On April 12, in his second race off the layoff, Civil Liberty won easily and improved at the same distance as the Woody Stephen. He is likely to improve in his third race off the layoff and has a chance to pull off the upset. 

Crude Velocity (6) might have been my top pick, but he opens as the favorite, versus 10/1 on Civil Liberty. He is unbeaten in three races, and his second effort back earned a stellar 116 figure. He stalked in second from the start to the eighth pole, then took the lead and won easily. In the Pat Day Mile, Englishman (7) led easily from the start but lacked the kick Crude Velocity showed. Today, there is even more early speed in this race, with Six Speed (3) (who led the Kentucky Derby for the first six furlongs) and Taj Mahal (9) going for the lead. Crude Velocity, Civil Liberty, and Solitude Dude will set up shop in third, fourth, and fifth. If Crude Velocity runs back to his April 4 effort and neither Civil Liberty nor Solitude Dude improves, Crude Velocity wins this race. 

Solitude Dude has won all four of his one-turn races. His only two-turn race was decent, the Fountain of Youth Stakes on February 28, when he stalked in second early, took the lead at the turn, and was still in front at the eighth pole, but finished behind Commandment and Chief Wallabee. Put another way, in that race, Solitude Dude would have won if it had been this distance. He shortened up to this seven-furlong trip and won the Bay Shore Stakes on April 18. His figures in his last three wins, all stakes, were 94, 96, and 101, so his best effort can also win.

Win bets: All three contenders, Civil Liberty (8), Crude Velocity (6), and Solitude Dude (5), can be considered at odds of 5 to 2 or higher. I would consider two of the three at odds of 7 to 2 or higher.

Exactas:

Civil Liberty (8), Crude Velocity (6), Solitude Dude (5) over Civil Liberty (8), Crude Velocity (6), Solitude Dude (5), Obliteration (2), Englishman (7)

Paradise Creek Stakes - Race 7 at Belmont at the A - Post Time 4:09 PM Eastern

Top Win Contender(s): Bronze Bullet, Intricate Spirit

Exactas in second: Track Tiger, Itza Lock

Bronze Bullet tries a turf sprint in his eighth start, whereas all his other races have been turf two-turn races or all-weather races. In his last race, the English Channel Stakes, a turf route, he raced from fourth to the wire and finished fourth. His second race back was a sprint on an all-weather track, where he would have finished better if not for trouble. He tried to go through a narrow hole in the stretch but was checked and finished third. In his other two sprints, he won and finished second. He gets hot jockey Flavien Prat, and with the cut back in distance, Bronze Bullet should rebound to win.

Intricate Spirit won the Futurity Stakes at this distance on turf at Aqueduct last October. He was then sent to the wolves in the Breeders’ Juvenile Turf Sprint, where he finished ninth. He was off for five months until March, when he ran in the Texas Glitter Stakes, which was moved from turf to dirt, and finished third. In the Palisades Stakes last month, he had trouble on the turn and could not recover. The Palisades was a productive race. One horse from the Palisades won its next race, and four others finished second or third in their subsequent races. Intricate Spirit should be second to fourth early, behind a fast pace, with Chasing Freedom and Track Tiger next to other horses at the gate. Intricate Spirit could get a great trip if those two horses go as fast as they should.

Win bets: Bronze Bullet, Intricate Spirit at 5 to 2 or higher.

Exacta: Bronze Bullet, Intricate Spirit over Bronze Bullet, Intricate Spirit, Track Tiger, and Itza Lock.

Doubles:

Race 7: Bronze Bullet, Intricate Spirit

Race 8: Waitlist, Kinetic

Race 8 at Belmont at the A - Post Time 4:40 PM Eastern

Top Win Contender(s): Waitlist, Kinetic

Exactas in second: Dreamlike, Classicist

Waitlist just won at this mile-and-one-eighth distance at Aqueduct. He rallied from fifth, going four paths wide to take the lead at the eighth pole and then widened. He gets a good pace to run, with two horses, Otello and Classicist, who have only won by leading from the start. Jockey Silvera rode Waitlist and will ride him again. From the rail, he should get a trip to win his second straight.

Kinetic also won his last race. He and Waitlist are the only ones coming off wins into the race. His last race was a one-turn race, but he previously won at this distance, including the General MacArthur Stakes. He ran three poor efforts before the win, so his previous trainer (Cox) put him into a claiming race for the first time. He was claimed by Michael Miceli, who has won eight of 35 races this year. Because Kinetic has always won this allowance race, he is at the optimal claiming price; if he should win this race, his connections would make a tidy sum of money. He has won two consecutive races before, and he could do the same today.

Win bets: Waitlist, Kinetic at 7 to 2 or higher.

Exacta: Waitlist, Kinetic and Waitlist, Kinetic, Dreamlike, and Classicist

The Thor’s Echo Stakes - Race 3 at Santa Anita - Post Time 5 PM Eastern

Top Win Contender(s): Uncle Chilly, Big City Lights

Uncle Chilly has won three races in succession, all since being claimed by trainer Jeff Mullins. His first two wins were sprints (like this race), and he recently won a one-mile race. Both of his recent sprint wins showed a nice kick. When moved from three-wide on the turn, he was still third at the eighth pole and then won. In his second back race, he was five-wide on the turn, fourth at the eighth pole, and won easily. The cut in distance helps sharpen his kick, and Uncle Chilly

appears ready to win his fourth consecutive race. Top jockey Joel Rosario recently moved his tack to California and has gotten off to a great start with 5-6-2 in 21 starts at Santa Anita.

Big City Lights is a “win type” who has run in 15 dirt sprints and won eight races. He won twice in similar stakes in November 2024 and January 2025, but then was off for a nine-month layoff. He raced his worst in two races on November 1 and November 30, 2025. The first of his comebacks was in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, so that can be ignored, as his second back race was his first-ever turf race. He then had another layoff until May 2, when he won in a tough effort, battling from the quarter pole and winning by a half-length. That makes him possibly vulnerable coming back after three weeks. Still, Big City Lights is the only horse with a chance to beat Uncle Chilly.

Win bets: Uncle Chilly, Big City Lights at odds of 9 to 5.

Doubles:

Race 3: Uncle Chilly, Big City Lights

Race 4: Sunset Grazen, O K Rose

The Fran’s Valentine Stakes - Race 4 at Santa Anita - Post Time 5:30 PM Eastern

Top Win Contender(s): Sunset Grazen, O K Rose

Exactas in second: Take Another Card, Grand Slam Smile

Sunset Grazen had been off for nearly a year when he returned on May 3 in a turf sprint, breaking slowly and finishing last of seven. He showed no speed until the last eighth pole, then finished strong, missing the win by three-quarters of a length. Sunset Grazen then won his first sprint, followed by the Golden Gate Debutante Stakes. Both wins came in the fall of 2024; he hadn’t won a race before then. He finished second in three races from February through April 2026, including the Evening Jewel Stakes, a turf route sprint where he missed by a half-length. Now he gets an early pace with Grand Slam Smile and other horses stretching out. In this race, his second off a layoff, he also gets top jockey Juan Hernandez, who is riding him for the first time.

O K Rose won in March after a two-month layoff in a turf sprint, but his other two wins were in turf routes. One of those route wins came last July after a similar layoff. Jockey Berrios rode him then and rides him again. If she repeats any of her three previous top efforts, she can win.

Win bets: Sunset Grazen, O K Rose at odds of 5 to 2.

Exacta: Sunset Grazen, O K Rose over Sunset Grazen, O K Rose, Take Another Card, Grand Slam Smile

Courtesy of Amwager

Race 9 at Churchill Downs | Saturday, May 23 | Post Time 4:56 PM Eastern

Keertana Stakes | Purse $250,000 | One Mile and One-Half on Turf | Fillies and Mares, Four Years Old and Upward

Top Win Contender(s): Sultana (1)

For second in exactas and in third on trifectas: Ayra Stark (3), Golden Sunshine (4), and Way to Be Marie (5)

Sultana (1) has four wins, one second, and one third in six races. She comes into this off three straight wins, the first in September and the second on November 8, when she won her first stakes race, the Grade 3 Maple Leaf Stakes. Sultana then took nearly five months off, returning on March 28 to win the Grade 3 Orchid Stakes. The Orchid was run at the same mile and one-half distance as this race, and she looked as if she had been off for only a month. Although she won her last two races by a neck or less, she showed determination. In her last race, she ran 41 mph in the final one-quarter mile on the turn, faster than any other horse in the race. Jockey Junior Alvarado rode her for the first time and will ride her again. Considering she is in her second race off the layoff and has already won a similar stakes race, she is likely to improve and is the one to beat.

Any of three horses can finish second to be in the exacta, or third in trifectas - Ayra Stark (3), Golden Sunshine (4), and Way to Be Marie (5). Ayra Stark has finished second in three straight races. In all three races, she led at the eighth but lacked kick. In her most recent race, she couldn’t finish better than Sultana. Golden Sunshine also finished second in her last race, the similar Grade 3 Bewitch Stakes. She finished second or third in five of her last seven races, so she also has a shot at the exacta or trifecta. Way to Be Marie made a run from third, four lengths behind the lead early when the pace was slow, but she faded to third. One race back, she rallied from fifth to win, but at a shorter distance. Both races were ridden by Luis Saez, who will be up again. If she runs as she did in that race, she has a shot at the money.

Win bets: Sultana (1) at odds of 2 to 1 or higher.

Exacta: Sultana (1) over Ayra Stark (3), Golden Sunshine (4), and Way to Be Marie (5)

Trifecta: Sultana (1) over Ayra Stark (3), Golden Sunshine (4), and Way to Be Marie (5)

You can find my analysis every week at Keeneland here (free) https://www.keeneland.com/legacy-news-category/keeneland-select under the title "Pick of the Day."

Race 13 at Laurel | Saturday, May 16 | Post Time 7:01 PM Eastern

Preakness Stakes | Purse $2 Million | One Mile and Three-Sixteenths | Three Year Olds

Top Win Contenders: Incredibolt (12), The Hell We Did (7), Ocelli (2)

Other contenders: Taj Majal (1), Crupper (3)

The Preakness is about to see a pace as fast and as early as in the Kentucky Derby, where the first fractions (22.6 for the first quarter and 46.44 at the half) were sizzling from the gate.

Some of those with early speed are on the outside, including Pretty Boy Miah (14), Corona de Oro (11), and Napoleon Solo (10). Those horses will need to run fast to save ground on the first turn. Also pressing are Great White (13), Iron Honor (9), Chip Honcho (6), Robusto (4), and possibly Taj Mahal (1).

That certainly helps the closers. One of them is Incredibolt (12), who started 13th in the first quarter of the Kentucky Derby, was 11th after the quarter pole, then moved to the middle of the track, where he was shoulder-to-shoulder with Renegade from the three-sixteenth until just past the eighth pole. Incredibolt passed five horses in the stretch and finished ahead of many others. In the Virginia Derby on March 14, Incredibolt sat fifth at the quarter pole, moved to second at the eighth, and drew clear to win by four lengths. Now he shortens up to a similar distance in the Preakness. Incredibolt earned the same 95 Equibase Speed Figures in both his recent races, and I think he can run his career best in the Preakness and win.

The Hell We Did (7) won his 2026 debut on March 15 (in his third race), a sprint, by 13 lengths, earning a 95 figure. He then ran in his first two-turn race in the Lexington Stakes in April, where he battled head-and-head from the quarter to the eighth, finishing second to Trendsetter, who passed both him and Corona de Oro. In the March 15 race, The Hell We Did moved from fourth, eight lengths behind, to fifth, to the win. Jockey Luis Saez rode him for the first time in the Lexington and will ride him again. I believe The Hell We Did will not get into an early battle this time and will finish better. This horse is a half-brother to many stakes horses, including Senor Buscador (7 wins from 23 races, $12 million), Runaway Ghost (8 for 13, $780,000), and Sheriff Brown (10 wins from 35, $635,000). The Hell We Did has a pedigree to love this distance, and at 15 to 1 odds, he has a big chance to finish first or second. 

Ocelli (2) finished third in the Kentucky Derby, making a strong rally from 10th to second at the eighth pole and fighting to the finish. He was only three-quarters of a length behind Golden Tempo and Renegade. Ocelli is still getting faster, and his figures have gone from 85 to 87 to 99. On March 14 in the Virginia Derby, Ocelli made a big rally to a half-length behind at the eighth pole but couldn’t sustain his finish kick and lost to Incredibolt. He then finished third in the Wood Memorial on April 4, before the Derby. Ocelli has never won in seven starts, but he has finished fourth or third. He should be used in exactas and trifectas, and for a win bet because the 99 figure is the best of any horse in the Preakness.

Taj Majal (1) is going to take money because he is undefeated in three races. Each of his races has been faster, from 85 to 93 to 97. In the Federico Tesio on April 18 at Laurel, he led the race from the start, the same way he won his previous race, both routes. He rallied from sixth in his career debut, but that was in a sprint. I am not sure Taj Majal will rally as he did in his first race or lead as he did in his last two. From the rail, he may have to use his speed to keep the 13 other horses behind him, but if he gets into a good position and doesn’t go too fast, he has a shot.

Crupper (3) has won twice in six starts. He won the mile-and-one-eighth Bath House Row Stakes on April 18, the same distance as Incredibolt in the Virginia Derby, earning Crupper a career-best 91 figure. On February 6, in his first win, he stalked, but the pace was slow, so he may not be a horse that can go to the lead in this race. Junior Alvarado rode Crupper in his last race, and he fits the horse well. Considering this horse starts at 30 to 1, I would consider him in exactas and for small win, place, and show bets.

Win bets: Incredibolt (12) and The Hell We Did (7) at odds of 7 to 2 or higher, and I won’t hesitate to bet both horses.

Ocelli (2) at odds of 5 to 5 or higher.

Crupper (3) at odds of 10 to 1 or higher.

Exactas: Incredibolt (12) and The Hell We Did (7) over All.

Exacta box: Incredibolt (12) and The Hell We Did (7), Ocelli (2), Taj Mahal (1), Crupper (3).

Courtesy of Keeneland Select

The Maryland Sprint Stakes - Race 8 at Laurel - Post Time 2:48 PM Eastern

Top Win Contender(s): Floodlites

Five of these nine horses won their last races, and two others won the one just before. Despite what appears to be a tough field, Floodlites is by far the horse to beat. Floodlites won three races in succession at six furlongs on dirt, after all of his previous races, except his debut, were on turf and all-weather tracks. He won the first of the three in October, rallying from fourth, and he won two of the other races, leading from the start. His last race, on April 18, was his career best, earning a 109 Equibase Speed Figure, the fastest ever among all in the field. He also has the best average speed for the last quarter at 37.82 MPH and the eighth at 35 MPH to the finish. Floodlites also has the best average stride per length in the same portions of these races. This will be his second race off a four-month layoff, so he should run faster. John Velazquez rides him again.

Win bets: Floodlites at 3 to 2 or higher.

The Gallorette Stakes - Race 11 at Laurel - Post Time 4:53 PM Eastern

Top Win Contender(s): Mahra’s Love, Ribaltagaia

The favorites are likely to be Accent, Austere, and Child of the Moon, but all three are poor bets. Austere hasn’t won in seven races over 18 months. Her last win came in an allowance race in November 2024. Her best effort came when she finished second in this race last year. However, she finished fourth and sixth in her last two races last year, and she finished fourth in her April comeback after an eight-month layoff. Child of the Moon also earned her last win in 2024. She came back from a layoff in February this year and finished second in an allowance race. She then finished fourth in the Hillsborough Stakes in March and finished fifth in an allowance race. Accent at least has a win this year, winning two allowance races in February and March, but in a stakes try in her last race, she finished fourth. Also, most of the others are not in good form. Cheetah Lady is coming off a five-month layoff and needs a race to run her best. Awesome Czech is also running off a four-month layoff.

That leaves Mahra’s Love and Ribaltagaia, the second and third-place finishers in the Dahlia Stakes on April 18, at odds of 15 to 1 and 6 to 1, respectively.

Oddly, Mahra’s Love opens at 15 to 1, even though she beat Ribaltagaia (6 to 1) by a half-length in the Dahlia Stakes. Mahra’s Love came in second, beaten by a nose at the wire, after making up four lengths from the eighth pole. This is her third start in the U.S., in just her 11th race, and her second off a layoff. The filly won a trio of races last summer in England, and her Equibase Speed Figures (101, 100, and 99) were as good as any other horses in this race. Mahra’s Love gets the rail and Luis Saez for the first time, a good sign. She just needs to improve to pay handsomely.

Ribaltagaia has also raced in Europe for most of her career (nine races), finishing fourth in the Suwannee Stakes after an awkward start and a rally from ninth. She was off for eight months beginning in August and was ready to run well when she finished second, beaten by a half-length in the Violet Stakes. She was off again until the Dahlia, where she ran second from the half-mile, but the runner-up passed her. She has a chance to win in her second start after a layoff. 

Win bets: Mahra’s Love and Ribaltagaia at 7 to 2 or higher.

Exacta: Box Mahra’s Love and Ribaltagaia

Trifecta: Mahra’s Love and Ribaltagaia over ALL over Mahra’s Love and Ribaltagaia

The Jim McKay Turf Sprint Stakes - Race 12 at Laurel - Post Time 5:52 PM Eastern

Top Win Contender(s): Jean Valjean, Fore Harp

Other contenders: Outlaw Kid, Chasing Liberty, Run Curtis Run

Jean Valjean is a “win type” with eight victories in 19 races, including four of seven turf sprints. He had been on a long layoff from November 2024 until his first 2026 race, the King T. Leatherbury Stakes on April 18. In his comeback, he pressed a fast pace, a head and a half-length behind, before taking the lead by a half-length at the eighth pole. The layoff took its toll, and he finished seventh. In his second race of the year, he wasn’t nearly as fresh. He stalked a second behind the lead after the quarter on a faster pace and drew clear to win by two and a half lengths. He earned a 94 Equibase Speed Figure, up from 85 three weeks ago. Now Jean Valjean is running his third race in a month, and he should get a trip off Fore Harp, the likely early pacesetter. Flavien Prat rides Jean Valjean for the first time for trainer Merryman, who combined to win this race last year with Witty. In 2024, Jean Valjean won three straight turf sprints, in which he earned 101 and 100, his best figures, so he could win again in this race.

Fore Harp also won eight of 39 races, with six of those wins on turf. He came back from a five-month layoff to run in the Leatherbury Stakes. He won the Leatherbury in 2025, leading from the start and earning a 99 figure. In this year’s race, he did not show his usual early pace and finished fourth. He may have needed a race for his comeback. Now Paco Lopez rides him for the first time, and Paco is really good with early-pace horses. There are no other “early” horses except Fore Harp and Jean Valjean, so Fore Harp will be first or second at the start. He won his other race last August, when he stalked in third early, so he and Jean Valjean are the top contenders.

There are three other contenders in this race. Of those, Outlaw Kid and Chasing Liberty won and finished second in the Leatherbury, respectively. Both horses were returning from layoffs of five to seven months, earning 93 and 92 figures. Both horses can do better even in their second race off their comebacks. Chasing Liberty gets Irad Ortiz, Jr., riding for the first time, while Jorge Ruis rides Outlaw Kid again. Run Curtis Run was in his second race off a four-month layoff, where he rallied from seventh and missed by a neck. He earned a 95 and can improve. However, if I am correct that Jean Valjean and Fore Harp run first and second from the start at a slow pace, these three horses will find it tough to pass the top two contenders.

Win bets: Jean Valjean, Fore Harp at odds of 3 to 1, and I would bet both at these odds or higher.

As to the other three horses - Outlaw Kid, Chasing Liberty, Run Curtis Run - may have value at odds of 5 to 1 or higher.

Exacta: Jean Valjean, Fore Harp over Jean Valjean, Fore Harp, Outlaw Kid, Chasing Liberty, Run Curtis Run

Coutesy by Amwager

The Take The A Train Stakes - Race 8 at Belmont at the Big A - Post Time 4:45 PM Eastern

Top Win Contender(s): Pillar of Beauty, Cadenza

Pillar of Beauty will not be among the favorites, but this filly can win and make us a profit. She won a turf sprint in her debut last December, a rare first-time win for trainer Bill Mott. She showed maturity in that race, taking her time in third until the stretch, when she found a path and cleared by a length and a quarter. Junior Alvarado rode her in her debut, but another jockey has ridden her in her two races since then, where she finished fifth and second. In her last race, Pillar of Beauty was fifth on the turn, went three paths at the three-sixteenth pole, and finished second. The winner won by four lengths. That filly (Slay the Day) then won the Limestone Stakes in April and finished second in the Mamzelle Stakes at Churchill Downs last week. With Alvarado back aboard, Pillar of Beauty should run well, given the company she just finished second to.

Cadenza finished second in the Serena Song Stakes on March 28. She won her other race this year on February 21, and both races were on all-weather tracks. She won her only turf race, a sprint, in August at Saratoga, so she can return to the turf. The horse she finished second to, Hen Party, finished second in the Mamzelle Stakes. Cadenza beat Hen Party in a race on February 21. She is a quality filly and has a good chance to win.

Win bets: Pillar of Beauty, Cadenza at odds of 9 to 5.

Exacta box: Pillar of Beauty, Cadenza

Doubles:

Race 8: Pillar of Beauty, Cadenza

Race 9: Growth Equity, Trendsetter

 

The Peter Pan Stakes - Race 9 at Belmont at the Big - Post Time 5:11 PM Eastern

Top Win Contender(s): Growth Equity, Trendsetter

In this year’s Peter Pan Stakes, three of the six horses want to lead from the start. Those three are Azam, Talk to Me Jimmy, and Gulfy. All three wear blinkers and have led from the start in all six of their wins. It will only take two of the three to set a faster-than-average pace to set up the closers. One of the three closers is Bull by the Horns, who earned his only win this year on the all-weather track. On his two routes on conventional dirt, he lacked any kick, finishing third and seventh.

That leaves only two horses to capitalize on the fast pace and finish second. The first is Growth Equity, who finished second in his two starts, both one-turn races. When he stretched to a route on March 20, he stalked second for the first half mile, then won easily by four lengths. Growth Equity is trained by Chad Brown, who has won this race three times in the previous 10 years, including last year, 2020, and 2017. The 2017 winner was Timeline, which won the Peter Pan off a one-turn mile in his maiden, the same way Growth Equity did in his last race. Growth Equity improved in his second and third races and appears capable of winning this race.

Trendsetter was 32 to 1 when he won the Lexington Stakes last month at Keeneland. That race was faster than average, and he rallied from fourth to the lead, three wide at the three-sixteenth pole, then drove past to win by two lengths. In his only two-turn race, in March, on the all-weather track at Turfway Park, he moved to within a head of the leaders in the stretch but didn’t sustain his kick. The Lexington was on conventional dirt, the same as at Aqueduct. This race should be made to order for Trendsetter again, but he won’t be a long shot today. Since his last race, Trendsetter put in an excellent workout, third best of 100, in four lengths (47.8), which tells us he is ready to run another “A” effort.

Win bets: Growth Equity at 3 to 2 or higher.

Trendsetter at 5 to 2 or higher.

Exactas: Box Growth Equity, Trendsetter

Growth Equity over Trendsetter

 

Senorita Stakes - Race 9 at Santa Park - Post Time 8:07 PM Eastern

Top Win Contender(s): Majoram, Light Won Up

Also consider: Bella Lyra

Majoram went off as the 2-to-1 favorite in an allowance race last month, in which three horses in this race also competed. She finished fifth, but that race should be crossed off her past performances because she stumbled at the gate and was eighth, 13 lengths back at the first quarter. At that point, she had no shot. Her only other race was last November, when she started sixth, broke a bit slowly, quickly improved to fourth while five wide on the turn, and made the lead at the eighth, winning by three-quarters of a length. This filly has a first-class pedigree for the turf, and if not for the problem in her last race, she might have won both her races. Trainer McCarthy feels she fits, and her dam's other foal (Spiced Up) won her first start in a turf sprint and the Mahony Stakes in her second start. Top jockey Juan Hernandez, who rode her last time, rides her again. She starts at 10 to 1 odds.

Light Won Up won this downhill turf course in February in the Sweet Life Stakes. That was her first turf race, and she surged from fourth at the quarter pole, passed the other three horses in front of her, and pulled away to win by nearly three lengths. She went to Kentucky in April and entered the Limestone Stakes, but finished fourth and lacked any kick. That was one furlong shorter than her last race, but she is back at the six-and-a-half-furlong distance, back in California, and has a chance to rebound.

Bella Lyra is a German-bred horse making her North American debut. She finished in the money in six of her seven races and finished second in both of her last two races. Her last race was on February 28, a stakes race, after a four-month layoff, and she could compete in this stakes field.

Win bets: Majoram at 2 to 1 or higher.

Light Won Up at 2 to 1 or higher, but starting odds are 9 to 5, so we will use her in exactas instead.

Bella Lyra at odds of 7 to 2 or higher.

Exactas:

Box Majoram and Light Won Up

Box Majoram, Light Won Up, Bella Lyra

Brought to you by Amwager

Majoram over all

Race 10 at Churchill Downs | Saturday, May 9 | Post Time 5:28 PM Eastern

William Walker Stakes | Purse $225,000 | Five and one-half furlongs on Turf | Three Year Olds

Top Win Contenders: Sandal’s Song (4), Outfielder (8)

Other contenders: Reb Five (1)

For second in exactas and in third on trifectas: Throckmorton (2) 

Although Reb Five (1) won the Palisades Stakes three weeks ago at Keeneland, the race was pace-heavy with the leader setting an almost unheard-of first fraction (:21 flat). Reb Five was ninth at the half and then flew home to beat Throckmorton (2), who had led late at the eighth pole. There should be no ridiculous early fractions in this race. Better still, only one horse has a chance to lead at the start, Outfielder (8). Reb Five is a contender but his kick may not be as good as many bettors believe.

While Outfielder will have the front to himself, Sandal’s Song (4) will be the horse in the catbird seat. Sandal’s Song won his career debut one year ago this weekend in the Royal Palms Juvenile Stakes. The colt got a great trip in third after the half, then made the lead and won easily. He also hopped at the break and got away eighth, but showed his ability. That win earned the horse a shot to run in the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes at Ascot, where he finished third in a field of 15. The winner of that race was Charles Darwin, who won his third race, then just won his 2026 bow. Sandal’s Song was off a long layoff when he ran in the Palisades, where he started 10th of 11 and finished sixth. I’m not concerned about this effort because he had been off for 10 months. Irad Ortiz, Jr. rode Sandal’s Song the first time in his last race and is aboard again. Now that Sandal’s Song has his comeback then he should run much better, and I expect him to pass Outfielder to win.

Still, with Outfielder (8) having the lead all to himself, if Sandal’s Song can’t rein him in, Outfielder can win his fourth in this sprint. He won the Animal Kingdom Stakes on March 21 after a five-month layoff. Outfielder won his career debut last May at Churchill Downs by six lengths, and he won his recent race easily by four lengths. John Velazquez has won all three times he has ridden this colt, and the horse should run even better off the layoff.

Throckmorton (2) has never finished third in six races. His last two races were excellent with narrow second-place finishes by a head and a neck, including the Palisades. He also won the Awad Stakes in his first turf sprint effort last November. However, he is getting jockey Brian Hernandez, who has not won a turf sprint stakes in recent years, with 34 starts and just three seconds. This is Hernandez's first ride on Throckmorton, unlike Sandal’s Song, Reb Five, and Outfielder, who are familiar with their riders.

Win bets: Sandal’s Song (4) at odds of 2 to 1 or higher.

Outfielder (8) at odds of 5 to 2 or higher

Exactas:

Box Sandal’s Song (4) and Outfielder (8)

Exactas: Sandal’s Song (4) and Outfielder (8) over Sandal’s Song (4) and Outfielder (8), Reb Five (1) and Throckmorton (2)

Trifectas: Sandal’s Song (4) and Outfielder (8) over Sandal’s Song (4) and Outfielder (8) over Reb Five (1) and Throckmorton (2)

Courtesy of Keeneland Select

Race 11 at Churchill Downs | Saturday, May 2 | Post Time 5:39 PM Eastern

Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic Stakes - Grade 1 | Purse $1,500,000 | One Mile and One Eighth on Turf | Four Years Old and Upward

Top Win Contenders: Make Me King (10), Test Score (9), Mercante (5)

Make Me King (10) is making his 30th start in his first U.S. race. He has won seven races and finished second or third nine times. He won one race this year in three starts, but one of his best races was finishing fourth, three lengths behind the winner and behind 11 horses in the $5 million Group 1 Dubai Turf, where some of the world’s best turf horses competed, including Ombudsman (7-3 for 10, $5 million). His Equibase Speed Figure was 127, the best of any horse in this race ever. He previously won the Group 2 Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Stakes by three lengths, earning a 104 figure. His trainer, Jehan Al, has two horses shipped to North America, and both won graded stakes last year, including one in a Grade 1 race. It is good that Jose Ortiz, one of the top jockeys in North America, is riding Make Me King. This field isn’t that tough, and if he repeats either of his last races, he can win.

Test Score (9) just won the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitation Stakes, battling head-to-head for the final eighth of the race. He has won three “A” races in his last three starts, all since he put blinkers on, including the Grade 2 Twilight Derby last October. Between those two wins, he missed by a half-length. All three races were run at one mile and one-eighth. He earned a 113 figure, the best in any American race this year. He is a big shot if Make Me King doesn’t run as well.

Mercante (5) finished second in this race last year, missing by three-quarters of a length. He then won the Group 3 Arlington Stakes at Churchill Downs at the end of May. He also won the Kentucky Cup Classic prior to his finish in this race last year. He earned 105,108 and 106 figures. He just made his start in this year’s Kentucky Cup Classic, where he again missed by three-quarters of a length. He is on the same pattern as his big effort in this Turf Classic, and he may not be one of the favorites, as he was 13 to 1 last year.

Win bets: Make Me King (10) and Test Score (9) at odds of 3 to 1 or higher.

Mercante (5) at odds of 5 to 1 or higher

Exactas:

Box Make Me King (10), Test Score (9), Mercante (5)

Doubles to the Kentucky Derby (race 12):

Race 11: Make Me King (10), Test Score (9), Mercante (5)

Race 12:  Further Ado (18), Renegade (1)

You can get my detailed analysis & selections of all 14 races in Derby day here Equibase

Here is my abbreviated analysis of the u/KentuckyDerby as part of this week’s Key Races and Bets Blog at Amwager.

You can get my detailed analysis & selections of all 14 races in Derby day here at Equibase.

Kentucky Derby - Race 12 at Churchill Downs - Post Time 6:57 PM Eastern

The top two horses are: Further Ado and Renegade.

Other horses with less probability to win and to finish first and third, The Puma, Commandment, Danon Bourbon, and So Happy

Three horses have a shot to finish second and third – Silent Tactic, Fulleffort, Potente.

Further Ado is on an improvement pattern, and I think he is the most likely to win this year’s Derby. He is making his third start of the year, having been away from November 29 to March 7. When Further Ado came into his first race of the year, the Tampa Derby on March 7, he may not have been 100% fit, but he battled head-and-head with four horses from the last quarter pole to the eighth pole, finishing beaten by three-quarters of a length. In the Blue Grass in his of the year, Further Ado made a “statement” by powering to win the Blue Grass Stakes on April 4 by 11 lengths. He earned a career-best 107 figure, tied with Renegade.

Although still a maiden, Renegade made his three-year-old debut in the Sam F. Davis Stakes on February 7, where he repeated the same rally, moving from sixth at the quarter pole, leading at the eighth pole, and powering to a win by just over four lengths. That earned Renegade a career-best 100 figure. In the Arkansas Derby on March 28, he made a big rally from seventh at the quarter mile while four-wide, getting third, half a length from the lead, and won powerfully by four lengths. He earned a new career-best 107 figure, the same as Further Ado. Irad Ortiz Jr., who has ridden both horses, chose Renegade.

Commandment and The Puma were a nose apart in the Florida Derby. They both ran hard for their wins, unlike Further Ado and Renegade, who won easily. Commandment's recent Equibase Speed Figures were 97, 99, and 93. The Puma's recent figures were 97, 95, and 90. It appears both horses need to improve to run as fast as either Further Ado or Renegade.

Danon Bourbon is the son of Maxfield, was bred in Kentucky, and has won all three of his races in Japan. All three races were two-turn races, and he won by big margins. His figures are 108, 105, and 103, as good as Further Ado and Renegade. In his race on March 28, Danon Bourbon was three paths at the quarter pole and won easily.

So Happy won the Santa Anita Derby by nearly three lengths and earned a 100 figure. Some people think his pedigree may be a problem at one mile and one-quarter. His sire, Runhappy, was a sprinter, and most of his progeny haven’t run this far. However, he has had horses run this distance, and the damsire is from Blame, who himself won top stakes at one mile and a quarter.

Silent Tactic is going to be a long shot, although he has never finished worse than second in five races. In the Arkansas Derby, he was no match for Renegade, yet he still earned a 101. Historically, horses that have finished second in their recent preps have much higher odds than they should, because there are so many good horses.

Fulleffort has won or finished second in five consecutive races. He won the Jeff Ruby Stakes on March 28, moving powerfully from ninth early to clear easily, earning a 99 figure. All of his races have been on turf or all-weather. The 2011 Derby winner, Animal Kingdom, had also never run on dirt and won the Jeff Ruby.

Potente, who finished behind So Happy in the Santa Anita Derby, has a chance to finish second or third. Although he led from the start in that race, he stalked in fifth when he won the San Felipe Stakes before the Santa Anita Derby.