u/Umbrellajack

Mario avoids death through coin.

He is a plumber. You would think he's a hard working blue collar worker. A comrade. But he isn't. He escapes death by hoarding wealth. What's his goal? To bang the bougiest broad in the kingdom. He has no compassion. Murders and jumps and swims his way to the castle. And it's not even clear if she wants to be "saved".

What games have better leftist values? The first one that comes to mind from my childhood is FFVII. A soldier with fucked up schizo memory joins an anticapitalist eco terrorist organization and bombs a mako reactor.

reddit.com
u/Umbrellajack — 6 hours ago

Skywind is an incredible communal effort. So impressive.

This modding project always astounds me. Plus Morrowind was incredible, so many childhood memories.

There is a metaphor here for communalism blah blah, but this makes me happy.

youtu.be
u/Umbrellajack — 3 days ago

In highschool (2006) I played a fun physics electromagnetic game to score goals ......

Does anyone remember this? Does this exist anymore? I remember placing magnets around boundaries and other magnets.

Are there any other free educational physics based games? (For android if possible?)

Thank you!

reddit.com
u/Umbrellajack — 4 days ago

What is Nathan Fielder up to?

I don't know. I'm asking you. I need an answer. He is brilliant.

Have y'all ever watched the show Dark? It's is such a good show if you love time travel. It's the only show since I can remember that is on the same level of the movie Primer.

And yes, watch The Curse. It's good.

reddit.com
u/Umbrellajack — 5 days ago

How to start with open mics? (NYC)

Does anyone have like a FAQ? Or an updated list of where to book open mics in NYC? I want to give it a shot. I don't expect to get paid. I'm a chef, but I want to see if I can do it.

And I guess it's 5 minutes of material needed? Ive heard that you need to sell some tickets on your own, if you are unknown?

Can someone be kind and let me know the process of starting ground floor? Thanks!

reddit.com
u/Umbrellajack — 8 days ago

Any of your coworkers use AI to respond to other coworkers?

It's so fucking bad and so embarrassing. I'm a chef, and my FOH manager has started doing this, and it's really fucking bad. Some don't notice or don't say anything. But other FOH people have come up to me and expressed that it's fucked. It's fucked.

I called my lawyer friend and he said they do it all the time. It's normal now.

Wtf. Ai is already impacting my job (vendors are switching to AI to accept orders), but I thought we had some time before it's literally talking to each other. How long before I can't even trust y'all? The one sub that isn't fucked on this fucked site.

reddit.com
u/Umbrellajack — 12 days ago

This book club finally finished 'Finnegans Wake.' It only took them 28 years

Anyone wanna start something like this with me?

npr.org
u/Umbrellajack — 16 days ago

FURIA vs Falcons at IEM Cologne Major 2026

Any old CS heads here?

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It is so nice to see a major CS final being played between two teams lead by their respective 37 year old leaders (Fallen + Karrigan) and the young kids that can still aim (Niko is an outlier).

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I haven't been following CS forever, but I'm so happy I just started checking back in again. Can't believe this is 8 years old when NA wo their first and only since Major:

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https://youtu.be/ri5zxSy\_9yM?is=SWxwhXdUxVk55Vy8

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Or this classic:

https://youtube.com/shorts/KSur9\_nyVZE?is=pq0XU0dNb60-uYLX

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Haha I love that this is the interview for today's win:

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https://www.hltv.org/news/44970/karrigan-here-i-am-playing-my-worst-cs-ever-and-somehow-in-a-major-final

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hltv.org
u/Umbrellajack — 16 days ago
▲ 136 r/TrueAnon

Serious question: Israel intentionally blocking the deal

Ok, when trump is saying shit like this:

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https://youtube.com/shorts/KZnTdTL2BGs?is=g3G4BrH1vr6XVMx6

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And this:

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https://youtube.com/shorts/aW6pmny4o98?is=PTwzHmiB-Nx1FCsS

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But STILL, Israel is fucking the US deal over in their face....it begs the question, what dirt do they have? Will this work again? Or is this the last hurrah from a doomed state?

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Obviously this deal is horrendous for the US, Iran played it perfectly, and continues to play it perfectly. Trump has been bullied, but this is different.

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Israel is bombing children JUST to delay this Iran deal. Why are they doing this? I honestly don't know. What would happen if Israel just didn't kill kids for 60/90 days or whatever? Why throw a wrench in the deal every fucking time?

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Is Trump unable to tell Israel to fucking chill for a few months? If that's the case, how can trump continue to now down without losing face?

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u/Umbrellajack — 16 days ago
▲ 111 r/TrueAnon

Wtf are peptides?

Young people are taking them and I'm not sure what they are but they are incredible it seems? I've missed this episode. Does anyone have an eli5?

Edit: also this is very important in the looksmaxing community. Makes your face prettier sometimes? And it's not just glp1, which is just one type of peptide?

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Calling all Gen Z!!!!!

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reddit.com
u/Umbrellajack — 16 days ago

The PSL "Split"

I'm being completely sincere here.

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I happened to be lucky and lived in probably THE best area (Dutch kills, queens, NYC) where I was able to canvass for Tiffany Caban and Zohran since 2019 (and other socialist and bernie-esque council members). I honestly can't think of another region in the US where the argument "electoral politics has some merit" is worthwhile. I was spoiled.

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That being said, I "joined" the PSL, but only really joined some protests here and there, but really wasnt involved. I was was just a body. But I didn't notice anything bad or good. I saw some old heads still talking about how what is happening right now is exactly like 1917 Russia, or another era in communist history. Walter brings this up a lot. I don't really know what he wants but I know that this infighting is not productive.

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My question is, why the fuck does this always happen? It seems like the PSL was gaining strength? Why is infighting a disease amongst socialists? The whole fucking purpose is to try and have MORE people join the cause. It's so fucking depressing and it always happens.

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Why can we all grow a set of nuts, form a coalition, and recognize some differences we have? That's it. Fucking grow up. "Here are our axioms" Good. Pick what you want them to be. Workers/strikes? Electoralism? Revolutionaries (whatever that means in 2026)?

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Propaganda is important. Having a likeable leader is essential. Having an ethical politic too. I think that is attainable and I think the fucking zeitgeist is begging for it.

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It can be done. It needs to be adapted, but it can be done.

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No Gods, no masters.

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https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vRIyGuCR41exdzbcZSf8BZC73zyY21Wq2Hpjii19ZnVc5AiZZBgJzKkkPrKZlZ7wtINcPdOGwZv-bga/pub

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reddit.com
u/Umbrellajack — 20 days ago
▲ 121 r/TrueAnon

Bodega cat

Anything below the ears is no go, for now. I'm working on it. Apparently he was abused as a kitten, which is sad. Sometimes he loves getting that neck massage.

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Do you have the equivalent of a bodega cat where you live?

Edit: I didn't realize how NY this sounds, now that I rewatched it, with the music playing and English and spanish being spoken. I often take for granted these things.

u/Umbrellajack — 20 days ago

Singer Oliver Tree among 6 killed in helicopter collision over Rio de Janeiro, officials say

Fucking rule #1 strikes again.

Edit: sorry didn't see other post.

cbsnews.com
u/Umbrellajack — 22 days ago

What movies should I rewatch as an adult now?

I was thinking about the movie Juno, and how as a kid, I thought it was a coming of age story about a teenage pregnancy, rebellious high schoolers. The whole Jason Bateman grooming/creepy aspects were there but I didn't pay much attention. But now it's clear, especially with the set design and screenplay. I don't love the movie but I appreciate it more now.

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What should I watch again? I was thinking Apocalypse Now? I 100% missed things when I saw it 15+ years ago.

reddit.com
u/Umbrellajack — 23 days ago

Tomorrow is Space X IPO: Learn about it here

SpaceX SpaceX SpaceX

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The normal thing to say is that SpaceX’s initial public offering “is set to price June 11” — today — “and trade the following day.” SpaceX’s bankers have been marketing its shares to investors for the past week, and this afternoon, after the market closes, they will get together, review the demand for the IPO, and “price” the IPO, that is, decide the price at which SpaceX will sell shares to investors. Then they will decide how many shares each investor will get and tell the investors what they’re getting. Then, sometime tomorrow, the stock will open for trading: Some people who got shares in the IPO will put in orders to sell,[1] people who didn’t get shares in the IPO (or who want more) will put in orders to buy, the stock exchange will take a few hours figuring out how to match up those orders, and eventually the orders will be matched and the stock will start trading. That’s the normal approach.

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SpaceX, though, started with a price. SpaceX launched its IPO marketing by saying that it is selling 555,555,555 shares at $135 per share. The deal is “pricing” this afternoon, in a formal sense, and I suppose it’s possible the price or size might still change, but probably the real pricing happened a week ago. (The “offering has attracted demand for more than four times the available shares” at that $135 price, Bloomberg reports, and the order books closed yesterday.) The Financial Times reports:

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Elon Musk’s lossmaking rockets-to-AI group is expected to make its market debut on Friday following what is set to be the biggest IPO on record, offering shares at $135 each, a set price that several people involved in the deal said left underwriters with less flexibility than is typical in a conventional listing. …

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“Elon just came in and said what the price was . . . there was no price discovery,” said an executive at a large US hedge fund.

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Is that right? Here are four possibilities:

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  1. Musk picked an arbitrary price that is way off-base, and the stock will fall 50% or go up 300% tomorrow.

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  1. Musk picked a price that was precisely correct, because he is a genius, and the stock will go up 20% tomorrow. (Twenty percent is the perfect IPO pop, making money for investors without leaving too much on the table.)

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  1. Musk picked an arbitrary price, but because of his reality-distortion powers, it became the precisely correct price. “If Elon Musk says the IPO price is $135 then that’s the perfect IPO price,” everyone will say, and there will be a perfect 20% IPO pop tomorrow. It doesn’t matter what anyone else thinks SpaceX is worth; it matters what Musk says.

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  1. Actually there was some price discovery, and SpaceX is going public at roughly the market-clearing price. It just didn’t need an IPO roadshow process to figure out that price.

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Obviously No. 1 is the funniest possibility, and No. 3 is most consistent with my Elon Markets Hypothesis, but my guess is that No. 4 is closest to being correct. (Not investment advice!) That Financial Times story goes on:

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Musk and his team were testing their $135 per share target with investors long before the official roadshow began last week, according to a person familiar with the process.

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“[$135 per share] is what Elon wants to sell it at and they’ve road-tested it with enough people that they think they can get it done,” the person said.

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Elon Musk has a long history of (1) raising a lot of money from investors and (2) making a lot of money for those investors. Presumably he has good well-developed instincts for what sort of valuation he can get away with, and also, like, the phone numbers of investors he can call to ask.

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Also, though, “private markets are the new public markets,” and there has been secondary trading in SpaceX shares for a while now. Hiive, a private-stock marketplace, shows a chart of SpaceX prices. These prices are somewhat theoretical (a “model-derived indicative price estimate … calculated daily using a time-decayed, volume-weighted blend of (a) confirmed transactions and (b) the bid/ask midpoint, weighted in favor of bids”), but Hiive shows a price of $136.18 as of June 3 (the day before the IPO roadshow launched) and $149.02 as of early this afternoon. The former price is consistent with “we are launching the IPO at the market-clearing price”; the latter is consistent with “there will be a modest IPO pop.” Forge, another private-stock marketplace, stopped trading in SpaceX after it filed for its IPO in May, but its most recent ( also model-derived) price was $128.84. Pretty close.

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There are also betting markets, where people trade not SpaceX stock but rather bets on the future price of SpaceX stock. We talked last week about pre-IPO perpetual futures, which are essentially crypto-based betting markets on SpaceX’s stock price. These exist in a somewhat gray area legally, and are not generally available to US investors, but so what. CNBC reported yesterday:

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Crypto traders in the SpaceX pre-IPO perpetual futures are expecting a big first day for Elon Musk’s much-hyped space company.

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The perpetual future contract is currently trading around $162 on the Hyperliquid trading platform, a market dominated by highly active, leverage-seeking crypto traders. That’s about 20% above its fixed IPO price of $135 per share, but down sharply from the peak levels exceeding $220, reached shortly after its May launch. SpaceX perpetual futures on Binance were trading at a similar level.

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A perfect 20% IPO pop. Last week, TD Securities market structure analyst Reid Noch and his team put out a research note on perpetual futures, noting that they are pure speculative bets not linked to the underlying shares:

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A pre-IPO PERP functions differently from a standard PERP. A normal PERP references a live spot market, futures price or index. A pre-IPO PERP has no public stock price to reference because the company has not listed yet. Instead, the market prices themselves are solely based on supply and demand. Once the stock begins trading, the contract can then anchor to the listed equity price. Until that point, it acts more like a leveraged, continuous prediction market than a substitute for owning the stock.

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But also that they work:

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Cerebras is the best example so far. The company priced its IPO at $185 per share, but opened around $350 on Nasdaq, an 89% premium to the IPO price. Before the stock was available for regular public trading, the Hyperliquid ecosystem had already started pricing in that move. Its CBRS pre-IPO PERP traded mostly in the high-$200s to low-$300s before the listing, then moved sharply higher the night before the open.

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The key point is that Hyperliquid largely predicted the post-IPO pop without offering true exposure to the underlying stock and without a public reference price to anchor the contract. Traders did not own Cerebras shares, receive IPO allocation rights or have any claim against the issuer. They were trading a cash-settled derivative on where the market believed the stock would open. …

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SpaceX is now the next major test. SpaceX PERPs are trading meaningful volumes on Hyperliquid despite the most popular provider offering no true equity exposure. If the market is directionally accurate again, institutional and retail interest in pre-IPO PERPs will likely continue to grow.

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For that matter, regular betting markets also price SpaceX. We talked last month about Polymarket offering binary betting markets on private company valuations. Polymarket has a “SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ____” market, which this afternoon shows an 84% chance of closing above $1.8 trillion (roughly the IPO price) and a 45% chance of closing above $2.2 trillion (roughly a 20% IPO pop). Again:

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pure bets, not actual transactions in SpaceX stock, and

not technically open to US investors, and tiny volumes relative to the size of the IPO, but nonetheless perhaps informative.

Traditionally, an IPO is a dramatic event, because it is a phase change in a company’s existence. Before the IPO, there is no real market price for the company. In the IPO, the company’s bankers conduct an imperfect price-discovery negotiation with select potential investors, getting a loose sense of how much the market thinks the company is worth, and using that sense to price the IPO. After the IPO, the stock starts trading and the market tells you how much it actually thinks the company is worth. The transition is abrupt and uncertain, and companies will get it wrong. Sometimes a company will market an IPO in a price range, and investors will tell it “actually you should charge much less” or “actually you should charge much more” or “lol no bid,” and the IPO will price above or below the company’s planned valuation range. Sometimes a company will price an IPO, and the next day the stock will trade up 300% or down 50%, because even the best efforts of the company and the bankers and the IPO investors couldn’t find the right price.

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But possibly that is over? Possibly the giant private companies can go public without much drama, because their shares already trade, and because the modern merger of financial markets with betting markets creates efficient price discovery. If the market last week said that SpaceX was worth $135 per share, then it should go public this week at $135 per share, and there is nothing much to think about. The pre-IPO trading and betting markets are different from, and not especially integrated with, the post-IPO public markets.[2] But that doesn’t mean they don’t work; they might come to roughly the same conclusions about the value of SpaceX as the public markets will. Public markets might not tell us much about SpaceX that we don’t already know.

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Or completely not! If SpaceX trades to $60 tomorrow, or to $600, we — Elon Musk, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Polymarket, Hyperliquid, me — will all look pretty dumb. Betting markets tell you what people think will happen, but SpaceX has to actually do the IPO to find out.

reddit.com
u/Umbrellajack — 25 days ago

Does anyone fuck with 40k?

I've been dipping into the lore, and I think, since there's so much of it, so much can be compared to life today. I was thinking, and I think Clavicular is Slanesh. He is hedonistic and uses $$$ from his followers to improve and looksmax. It literally reminded me when I learned about the chaos gods.

And then I started thinking who are the other ones? That streamer that make millions and doesn't clean his room is probably Nurgle .

What is the nytimes editorial board? Like the inquisitors.

Ben Shapiro, idk, a neceon? Or perhaps a generic space marine chapter master.

Lemme know.

Idk, it could be a fun game, if any of you are into Warhammer m

reddit.com
u/Umbrellajack — 26 days ago

Good sources to follow in Bolivia?

Does anyone know good journalists/authors/etc. to follow who cover or write about their situation?

Also, any good long form about the current situation?

Thanks!

reddit.com
u/Umbrellajack — 27 days ago
▲ 493 r/TrueAnon

I completely forgot Fred Hampton was 21

What a brilliant man. Unbelievable what he accomplished before *redacted*. I haven't thought about him in a while and in my head, he was at least 30. Imagine being so fucking amazing/"threatening " that the FBI puts a hit on you AT 21!!!!

What were y'all doing at 21? I was a fucking moron.

"At 10 years old, he started hosting weekend breakfasts for other children from the neighborhood, cooking the meals himself in what could be described as a precursor to the Panthers' free breakfast program."

reddit.com
u/Umbrellajack — 1 month ago

Do you live where there is good pizza?

I'm so lucky. I just reheated two slices of beautiful NY pizza (it's important to first heat it up in the pan, get it crunchy, then throw it in the oven for a minute or two ) and it made me feel good. I had a bad day and now I'm not so upset. Same shit with a good everything bagel toasted with lox and cream cheese.

They give you the calories, it's not terribly unhealthy, and it makes me feel good. It's so easy. Quick. The only issue is inflation, prices are absurd, but fuck, that's effecting everything.

Do you live near good pizza? If not what is the good go to fix near you?

reddit.com
u/Umbrellajack — 1 month ago